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Prediction markets for Executive Office

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

42.09%chance

555181377

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2731

1983

US government uses live ammunition on protestors before end of presidential term?

Jun 10, 1:45 AMJan 19, 11:59 PM

20.58%chance

8012713

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1965

509

[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?

Jul 5, 12:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

20.52%chance

3412373

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19679

5082

When will Warren Buffett stop being Berkshire Hathaway's chief executive officer?

Aug 31, 2:20 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

2411281

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2023

2024

Other

98

1

0

0

0

Will it be possible for transgender people to leave the US in 2026? (Can renew passports; Not imprisoned)

Feb 5, 4:52 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

89.94%chance

152984

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2990

334

Will Mira Murati be CEO of OpenAI before 2029? (again)

May 27, 8:46 AMMar 5, 9:59 PM

8.6%chance

182913

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3259

307

Will someone I've met be elected President in either 2028 or 2032?

Jan 28, 4:09 PMJan 16, 4:59 AM

61.64%chance

482387

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5267

1567

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

626

Will Trump preserve Biden’s clean energy tax credits?

Mar 17, 4:27 PMJan 20, 7:59 AM

17.61%chance

71037

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1983

625

Will a US Governor, Senator, President, or VP be in a open polyamourous relationship without scandal by the end of 2039?

Sep 19, 11:29 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

23.82%chance

20709

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1242

901

Will any head of executive department appointed in the 2025-2029 Administration leave office in 2025?

Nov 10, 10:44 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

57.38%chance

11511

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1160

862

Will Tim Cook retire by 2030

Oct 19, 4:22 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

81.25%chance

14310

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1030

973

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