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Prediction markets for Exists

Will the Milky Way still exist in 2030? [long-term interest rate market]

Jan 9, 8:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

97.5%chance

81385923

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6252

160

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

37.56%chance

350107942

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4159

4150

By 2100, will there be scientific consensus supporting the existence of past or present life on Mars?

Feb 27, 5:13 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

25%chance

10631787

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2322

1388

AI Cult exists by 2027

Feb 8, 8:02 PMMay 2, 6:59 AM

75.12%chance

18429510

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2159

2002

Will the US Department of Education cease to exist during the Trump administration?

Nov 11, 11:36 PMFeb 21, 4:59 AM

9%chance

7922197

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1861

46

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2040? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Mar 16, 7:08 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

58.44%chance

4819304

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

860

Does Planet Nine exist?

Mar 7, 3:55 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

25.74%chance

11914425

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1753

489

Does God exist?

Mar 27, 3:06 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

37.41%chance

14414378

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1556

1092

Will a Druze state exist by the end of 2030?

Feb 26, 12:04 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

11.92%chance

184645

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7080

1848

Will there exist popular smart glasses with LLM integration by 2030?

Apr 8, 6:49 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

85.89%chance

444068

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3679

1257

IF artificial superintelligence exists by 2030, will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 31, 11:41 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

36.04%chance

593222

OptionVotes

YES

NO

963

942

By when will the Whitehouse acknowledge the existence of non-human intelligence?

Sep 22, 1:03 PMJan 1, 2:02 PM

4500

OptionProbability

Jan 1st 2050

Jan 1st 2030

Jan 1st 2028

Jan 1st 2029

Jan 1st 2027

Jan 1st 2026

40

26

20

20

9

3

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