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Prediction markets for Exists

Will the Milky Way still exist in 2030? [long-term interest rate market]

Jan 9, 8:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

94.48%chance

47225860

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4138

242

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.71%chance

339104484

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5342

3569

AI Cult exists by 2027

Feb 8, 8:02 PMMay 2, 6:59 AM

81.7%chance

17829100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2880

1806

Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?

May 25, 10:11 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

69.99%chance

8526818

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1527

655

By 2100, will there be scientific consensus supporting the existence of past or present life on Mars?

Feb 27, 5:13 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

39.21%chance

10326560

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1758

1520

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2040? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Mar 16, 7:08 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

58.44%chance

4719284

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

860

Does God exist?

Mar 27, 3:06 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

37.15%chance

14314373

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1551

1100

Does Planet Nine exist?

Mar 7, 3:55 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

39.4%chance

11914105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1324

693

Will there exist popular smart glasses with LLM integration by 2030?

Apr 8, 6:49 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

85.66%chance

434022

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3633

1265

IF artificial superintelligence exists by 2030, will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 31, 11:41 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35%chance

563073

OptionVotes

YES

NO

992

926

Will a Druze state exist by the end of 2030?

Feb 26, 12:04 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

25.59%chance

151367

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3832

2541

By when will the Whitehouse acknowledge the existence of non-human intelligence?

Sep 22, 1:03 PMJan 1, 2:02 PM

4500

OptionProbability

Jan 1st 2050

Jan 1st 2030

Jan 1st 2028

Jan 1st 2029

Jan 1st 2027

Jan 1st 2026

40

26

20

20

9

3

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