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Prediction markets for Exists

Will the Milky Way still exist in 2030? [long-term interest rate market]

Jan 9, 8:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

96.07%chance

77308954

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4949

202

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.39%chance

340104594

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5080

3679

AI Cult exists by 2027

Feb 8, 8:02 PMMay 2, 6:59 AM

78.16%chance

18129208

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2447

1914

Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?

May 25, 10:11 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

74%chance

8728182

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1687

593

By 2100, will there be scientific consensus supporting the existence of past or present life on Mars?

Feb 27, 5:13 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

39.21%chance

10326560

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1758

1520

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2040? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Mar 16, 7:08 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

58.44%chance

4819304

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

860

Does Planet Nine exist?

Mar 7, 3:55 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

25.74%chance

11914425

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1753

489

Does God exist?

Mar 27, 3:06 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

37.41%chance

14414378

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1556

1092

Will there exist popular smart glasses with LLM integration by 2030?

Apr 8, 6:49 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

85.66%chance

434022

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3633

1265

IF artificial superintelligence exists by 2030, will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 31, 11:41 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

38%chance

583172

OptionVotes

NO

YES

971

913

Will a Druze state exist by the end of 2030?

Feb 26, 12:04 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

25.92%chance

161382

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3788

2556

By when will the Whitehouse acknowledge the existence of non-human intelligence?

Sep 22, 1:03 PMJan 1, 2:02 PM

4500

OptionProbability

Jan 1st 2050

Jan 1st 2030

Jan 1st 2028

Jan 1st 2029

Jan 1st 2027

Jan 1st 2026

40

26

20

20

9

3

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