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Prediction markets for Exo

Will Lucy Letby be exonerated?

Aug 18, 7:32 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.57%chance

4629763

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1226

953

Will a spacecraft designed to land on an exoplanet be officially launched before the end of 2040?🚀

Jan 7, 3:49 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

25%chance

444532

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1048

482

Will a spacecraft designed to land on an exoplanet be officially launched before the end of 2030?🚀

Jan 7, 3:43 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

10.64%chance

313618

OptionVotes

NO

YES

992

696

Will there be ≥10k confirmed exoplanets by EoY 2025?

Oct 27, 2:25 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.65%chance

291958

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1012

912

Will an exomoon be discovered by the end of 2025?

Mar 23, 8:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.71%chance

291691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1271

695

California Exodus: Will California lose inhabitants between 2010 and 2030?

Nov 11, 10:03 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

38.23%chance

271685

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1331

713

Will there be ≥30k confirmed exoplanets by EoY 2030?

Oct 27, 2:27 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.5%chance

221140

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1009

963

Will exoskeleton hiking pants be available to purchase from REI before June 2027?

Apr 25, 5:07 AMMay 31, 11:59 PM

28.73%chance

8842

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1575

635

Will there be ≥15k confirmed exoplanets by EoY 2025?

Oct 27, 2:26 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.68%chance

17722

OptionVotes

NO

YES

994

955

Will there be ≥20k confirmed exoplanets by EoY 2030?

Oct 27, 2:26 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

58.16%chance

13466

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1088

930

Will the JWST discover exoplanets with 'carbon-lite' atmospheres in the next 15 years?

Jan 17, 10:41 PMJan 24, 10:59 PM

86.4%chance

8194

OptionVotes

NO

YES

259

86

Will "OpenAI: Exodus" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

May 21, 4:46 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.73%chance

1100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1099

985

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