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Prediction markets for EXPE

How will scientific consensus in 2050 apportion the causes of increased life expectancy from 1000AD to 2000AD in Europe?

Jun 27, 4:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35121190

OptionProbability

increased sanitation / hygiene / clean air+water

vaccines and antibiotics

medical ex-vaccines/antibiotics

all other cuases

improved diet

reduced war / homicide / execution / child abandonment

27

21

19

19

18

15

Will the United States experience a constitutional crisis before 2030?

Jul 10, 8:22 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

83.49%chance

14844993

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2115

209

Will the Kenya Universal Basic Income experiment find that UBI significantly reduces local crime?

Jan 10, 3:40 PMMay 31, 10:59 PM

59.86%chance

35730149

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2264

2144

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast before the end of 2025?

Mar 13, 6:29 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

67.08%chance

11527986

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2787

1418

Will Trump significantly expand high-skill immigration by the end of 2026?

Nov 6, 7:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.03%chance

5826815

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1731

578

Will US life expectancy recover from its 2020-2021 "Covid" drop to exceed its 2019 level by 2029?

Oct 24, 3:48 AMDec 31, 2:59 PM

80%chance

4624367

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3882

2007

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2040? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Mar 16, 7:08 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

64.45%chance

4719184

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1306

760

Will Matthew Barnett win his bet with Bryan Caplan on whether there will be explosive growth by 2043?

Aug 20, 10:09 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

32%chance

2812360

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

622

Will Waymo One expand its SF Bay Area service area to Marin County by December 31, 2026?

Jan 3, 9:53 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

63.71%chance

596835

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13221

7577

Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?

Jul 20, 9:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.81%chance

114493

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10081

9577

Which of 1password or Bitwarden will have user secrets exposed in a security breach first?

Feb 29, 1:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32925

OptionProbability

1password

Bitwarden

57

43

Does EXP = PSPACE?

Nov 18, 6:40 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

21.22%chance

481

OptionVotes

YES

NO

191

100

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