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Prediction markets for EXPE

How will scientific consensus in 2050 apportion the causes of increased life expectancy from 1000AD to 2000AD in Europe?

Jun 27, 4:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

41130717

OptionProbability

increased sanitation / hygiene / clean air+water

all other cuases

vaccines and antibiotics

medical ex-vaccines/antibiotics

improved diet

reduced war / homicide / execution / child abandonment

26

21

20

18

17

11

Will the United States experience a constitutional crisis before 2030?

Jul 10, 8:22 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

55%chance

15148508

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1318

538

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2040? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Mar 16, 7:08 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

58.44%chance

4819304

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

860

Will the US experience a recession during 2026?

Mar 30, 6:53 PMMar 31, 10:59 PM

15.47%chance

4910564

OptionVotes

YES

NO

530

150

Will Waymo One expand its SF Bay Area service area to Marin County by December 31, 2026?

Jan 3, 9:53 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

55.37%chance

659769

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11107

9009

[ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?

Jan 6, 11:15 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

17.29%chance

339085

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8381

4121

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.27%chance

217018

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13559

7386

Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?

Jul 20, 9:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

35.83%chance

125543

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10627

9444

SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).

Oct 9, 11:04 PMOct 10, 11:04 PM

59.93%chance

395035

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1223

818

Which of 1password or Bitwarden will have user secrets exposed in a security breach first?

Feb 29, 1:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

321030

OptionProbability

1password

Bitwarden

57

43

Does EXP = PSPACE?

Nov 18, 6:40 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

21.22%chance

481

OptionVotes

YES

NO

191

100

What will MIRI's expenses be in 2026?

Apr 7, 12:49 AMDec 1, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Above $3,500,000

Above $5,000,000

Above $7,500,000

Above $10,000,000

Above $15,000,000

50

50

50

50

50

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