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Prediction markets for Experts

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2040? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Mar 16, 7:08 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

64.45%chance

4719184

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1306

760

In 2040, will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex?

Mar 15, 1:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55%chance

8512836

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1335

1081

Will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex? (Excluding: sex desire)

Apr 2, 5:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55.12%chance

428528

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1110

864

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2030? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Mar 16, 7:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

43%chance

284981

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1029

923

In 2050, will the general consensus among experts be that the concern over AI risk in the 2020s was justified?

Apr 4, 3:57 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

74.93%chance

764012

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1313

1109

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2025? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Mar 16, 7:05 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27.93%chance

271514

OptionVotes

NO

YES

997

967

Are Mixture of Expert (MoE) transformer models generally more human interpretable than dense transformers?

Sep 15, 11:23 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

45.19%chance

151318

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1135

858

By 2028, given some text, AI can output a recording that can’t be distinguished from a voice actor, by expert listeners?

Jan 5, 10:56 AMJan 12, 8:29 AM

80.71%chance

361185

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1266

907

In 2100, will there be an expert consensus that aliens have been observed?

Jul 19, 3:03 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.77%chance

151116

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1444

394

Will there be an expert-player-beating AI in civ 6 by 2026?

Oct 6, 6:14 PMOct 7, 3:59 AM

48.81%chance

11411

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1028

973

If humanity survives to 2100, what will experts believe was the correct level of AI risk for us to assess in 2023?

Sep 14, 4:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

37.91%chance

17389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1068

862

The probability of "extremely bad outcomes e.g., human extinction" from AGI will be >5% in next survey of AI experts

Feb 24, 4:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

75.86%chance

18336

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1216

909

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