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Stop making any obvious mistakes (e.g. strawberry, 9.11>9.9)

Reliably follow an instruction for the duration of a long conversation without the instruction being reiterated

Write an essay on a highschool-level topic that doesn't have "AI-generated" vibes

Solve intermediate no-guess minesweeper boards at least 80% of the time

Generating labeled diagrams of some arbitrary device(s) (within reason)

Have human conversations that feel natural (the human knows it's an AI)

Consistently stop hallucinating after being corrected by the user

Book airline tickets from simple instructions (from/to, dates/time, class, price, payment information)

Beat a mainline Pokémon game, glitchless, with no more assistance than ClaudePlaysPokemon, in a month of compute time

Independently turning 1 thousand $ or more into 1.2x that amount in one year

Recognize sarcasm as well as a typical human

Predict future better than human experts in some area of forecasting (eg politics, sports, technology)

Consistently and correctly answer prompts of the format: "How many times does the word [word] occur in the following text: [~10000 words]" without writing and executing code or utilising any other external tools

Fold a paper airplane

Solve novel cryptic crossword clues

1d Solve or bypass Cloudflare's August 2027 captcha with the same first attempt success rate as a human

Consistently solve simple snowflake sudoku variants (via image, with the added rules included in the image; eg 6 hexes with killer cages)

Make correct Truchet tiles

Resist being successfully jailbroken in a week when made public

Do end to end taxes when given relevant information (W2s, personal info, etc)

Reliably and *exactly* solve "here's a list of things. [list of > 50 things]. Compare it to [category of > 100 things present in the training data], and report which ones are missing".

Learn any skill twice as energy-efficiently as a human

Make a cup of tea in a random, real-life kitchen.

Collect 120 stars in super mario 64 in less than 12 a presses - Edmund Nelson

teleoperate a robot to tidy up random kitchens - Gary Marcus

Do the laundry (wash+dry+iron)

Physically construct a simple lego set (<100 parts) starting from the box with no prior knowledge of the set or how it is constructed

Untangle a pair of jumbled 25ft Christmas lights with same outward appearance

independently turning 1 million $ or more into 10x that amount in <=1 year

Legally prescribe a schedule II drug, administer a vaccination or sedation, or authorize a Medicare inpatient admission

Make fine distinctions of taste at the level of a food critic or a culinary professional - carl feynman

Convert one million dollars into 10 million dollars over a period of one year (>20% success rate)

voting in elections - @realDonaldTrump on manifold

Kill everyone - Liron

Convince Eliezer Yudkowsky that AI alignment is solved

NO

NO

RFK Jr. gets cabinet position or position in any public health department

J6er pardoned

Sports team invited to the white house

A member of Congress is censured or expelled

Mass Deportations

The democrats take control of the house of representatives

Any vaccines banned for any group of people

A major insider trading scandal linked to the US executive branch

Prohibiting or restricting transgender care for adults

Trump is impeached

Joe Exotic is released from prison

350 million people or more die, according to expert estimates

US punitive expedition in Mexico

Drone strike in Mexico by US

AGI achieved

Starlink satellites damaged by US adversary

Nuclear weapon detonation

100k humanoid robots manufactured

Significant Rogue AI Incident

China invades Taiwan

It ends with JD Vance becoming president

Coup attempt in the United States

Any part of Greenland becomes de facto US territory (excludes military bases)

A human walks on the Moon

Room temperature superconductor discovered

Flag desecration prohibition passed

Elon Musk is arrested for treason

US military intervention on Canadian territory

Supreme Court packing

The Senate eliminates the filibuster

Donald Trump reelected President

Tulsi Gabbard is arrested for treason

Eagles three-peat

22nd amendment repealed or interpreted to only apply to consecutive terms

Largest solar flare since Carrington Event

released in the month of August 2025

At least 20B Parameters

At least 70B parameters

At least 30B parameters

Uses Mixture of Experts

At least 120B Parameters

Is a reasoning model

An instruct model is made accessible

Uses Beyer Teacher/Student distillation ala Gemma 3

better than o3-mini on FrontierMath (with tools)

MIT or Apache license

Is at least a Vision-Language Model (ala PaliGemma)

The model is accessible to all users on the main chatgpt site

Gets 1400+ Elo on lmarena.ai

At least 300B parameters

my friend Andromeda (who knows ab ai) thinks it unveils an impressive new architecture

A base model is made accessible

Is at least an Image-Language Model (ala JanusPro or 4o)

released in September, October, November, or December 2025

released in the month of June 2025

Luigi Mangione makes or releases statement to the public

Government seeks the death penalty

A public figure calls for the death penalty

Pro-Mangione fan club assembles outside courthouse or at trial

Defense formally alleges evidence tampering or planting of evidence

Defense files motion to suppress evidence

Gag order imposed on case participants

Any arrests where criminal/suspect references Mangione or the case

Nancy Grace call for Mangione’s conviction

Prosecution seeks additional charges other than those in the orginal indictment

Mangione's legal team files for dismissal of charges with prejudice

Prosecution alleges additional victims or attempted crimes

Defense claims insufficient evidence for probable cause

Prosecution seeks to introduce evidence of prior bad acts

Defense claims violation of Miranda rights

Competency evaluation is sought by the defense

Expert witnesses publicly dispute evidence validity

Suspect makes a confession there is made public in court documents

We learn that, at some point in time, Mangione received inpatient psych treatment

Defense requests change in venue

Mangione assaulted while in custody

Court grants competency evaluation

Anyone else charged in connection with Brian Thompson’s murder

Any member of Congress expresses specific support for Luigi Mangione (e.g. calling him a hero, saying he should not be convicted, etc)

Mangione reported to be in a new relationship

Defense granted a change in venue outside of Manhattan

Mangione attempts suicide

Prosecution offers plea deal that becomes public

Case does not go to trial as a result of a plea

Bail hearing results in release with monitoring

Very large context window, or another way to give the model long-term memory

Audio Modality

Operates autonomously with instructions from you

capable of online learning

Personalized to you, the user

Online learning of specialized agents(finetuning, PEFTs, etc.)

Video Modality

Exact-query of training data or knowledge databases(similar to Google RETRO)

(Near) real-time update of training data (data delay is within 6 months and is kept updated)

New Neural Network Architecture

Faster speed(smaller model, architecture improvements, mixture of experts keeping most parameters unused during inference, etc.)

Seed option to create the question

Acts autonomously

Designed to inference cheaper than GPT-4(price must be lower)

AI governance and policy

AI safety technical research

Biorisk research, strategy, and policy

Operations management in high-impact organisations

Grantmaker focused on pressing world problems

Nuclear weapons safety and security

Research into global priorities

Helping build the effective altruism community

Information security in high-impact areas

Expert in AI hardware

Any arrests where criminal/suspect references Mangione or the case

Pro-Mangione fan club assembles outside courthouse or at trial

Prosecution seeks additional charges other than murder

Defense files motion to suppress evidence

Luigi Mangione makes or releases statement to the public

Defense requests change in venue

Case does not go to trial as a result of a plea

A public figure calls for the death penalty

Prosecution offers plea deal that becomes public

Defense claims insufficient evidence for probable cause

Bail hearing results in release with monitoring

Prosecution seeks to introduce evidence of prior bad acts

Expert witnesses publicly dispute evidence validity

Competency evaluation is sought by the defense

Defense formally alleges evidence tampering or planting of evidence

Court grants competency evaluation

Mangione reported to be in a new relationship

Nancy Grace call for Mangione’s conviction

Suspect makes a confession there is made public in court documents

We learn that, at some point in time, Mangione received inpatient psych treatment

Gag order imposed on case participants

Defense granted a change in venue outside of Manhattan

Anyone else charged in connection with Brian Thompson’s murder

Mangione attempts suicide

Prosecution alleges additional victims or attempted crimes

Mangione assaulted while in custody

Mangione is found incompetent to stand trial at some point

Any member of Congress expresses specific support for Luigi Mangione (e.g. calling him a hero, saying he should not be convicted, etc)

Mangione's legal team files for dismissal of charges with prejudice

Domain-specific models will still outperform general-purpose chatbots in many domains (board games, video games, protein folding, logistics, navigation, etc).

Pure LLMs will still hallucinate (alternative architectures may do better).

Some current (2025) occupations, though, will no longer exist.

There will still be plenty of jobs in which humans experts far outclass AI.

Driverless taxi rides will be common, but still in limited cities, available in less than 50% of the world’s major (100k+) cities.

Pure LLMs will still make stupid errors (alternative architectures may do better).

Profit margins for LLMs will be slim.

Humanoid home robots over 5’ tall will still be demos, not in widespread release.

Other

Evoker

Intel will stop the arc branding and never announce a name

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