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Prediction markets for Exploration and Production
Will OpenAI release an agent priced at $10k per month or above in 2025
Mar 5, 7:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
9.57%chance
7820960
OptionVotes
3074
325
[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?
Jul 5, 12:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM
20.12%chance
3612488
OptionVotes
19925
5019
OptionVotes
125
80
OptionProbability
79
73
67
65
65
59
50
50
45
45
35
Will Brazil implement a four-day work week before 2030?
Oct 12, 3:59 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM
5.57%chance
10577
OptionVotes
700
85
Which industries of the US stock market will outperform the SPDR S&P 500 Trust in 2025?
Jan 1, 9:04 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
9395
OptionProbability
70
63
59
58
57
55
54
52
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
46
45
In which year will an AI-generated movie become the first major box office success?
Apr 2, 2:27 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
6272
Within how many years after AGI has been achieved will the U.S. nominal GDP double?
Feb 4, 3:10 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
1200
OptionProbability
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
9
9
8
Kramer Intelligence overtakes Apple Intelligence by the end of 2026?
Jul 4, 10:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
12.65%chance
6163
OptionVotes
263
38
Will Democrats (2028 Election) pivot to pro-growth Abundance Policies (Ezra Klein + Derek Thompson) 🇺🇸🦾🤑🦅🏗️🏛️
Mar 6, 3:41 AMNov 30, 12:59 PM
41.79%chance
8159
OptionVotes
118
85
Will Japan produce hydrogen with nuclear power before 2031?
May 9, 8:02 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM
71.51%chance
260
OptionVotes
158
63
Will Nanotechnology Enable the Creation of Self-Assembling or Morphing Consumer Products Commonplace by 2050?
Nov 19, 1:28 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
50.11%chance
441
OptionVotes
73
67