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Prediction markets for Express

Will an elected US Federal official express that "If anyone builds it, everyone dies" before 2026?

Jul 3, 5:09 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

9.59%chance

275937

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3070

326

Will Elon Musk express support for Cape Independence by 2025?

Sep 23, 1:43 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

3%chance

135241

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4446

670

Will a province or territory of Canada express an intent to join, or attempt to join the US before 2028?

Dec 26, 8:37 AMJan 3, 7:59 AM

5.84%chance

305168

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4017

249

Will Xi Jinping publicly express concern about AI extinction risk before 2026?

Jun 1, 4:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.89%chance

373949

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2951

282

Will expressive negative opinions on people with AI partners be considered hate speech by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.96%chance

743637

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1099

834

are LLMs easy to align because unsupervised learning imbues them with an ontology where human values are easy to express

Aug 29, 2:34 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.4%chance

15859

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1317

819

Before 2026, will frontier AI models get much better at expressing calibrated uncertainty in their answers?

Feb 6, 12:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65.35%chance

8758

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1373

728

What will be the value of American Express Membership Rewards Points at the end of 2026?

Sep 28, 5:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2250

OptionProbability

1.80 - 1.99

2.00 - 2.19

2.20 - 2.29

2.30+

Below 1.80

30

30

30

6

5

Will statement expressions become part of the official ISO C Standard before 2028?

Dec 19, 5:43 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

32%chance

6138

OptionVotes

YES

NO

184

94

What price will Twitter debt fall to (expressed as cents/per dollar) and go out at, so banks can get it off their books?

Oct 29, 2:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

364

OptionProbability

$0.80/$1 >

$0.79/$1 - $0.50/$1

$0.49/$1 - $0.30/$1

< $0.29/$1

56

22

11

11

What will the Interborough Express (IBX) project cost be?

Jan 28, 7:48 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

31.57%chance

450

OptionProbability

NO

YES

332

93

Will CNSA's Interstellar Express probe reach 100 AU from the sun by 2055?

Sep 17, 2:41 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

60.69%chance

215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

78

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