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Prediction markets for Express

Will a province or territory of Canada express an intent to join, or attempt to join the US before 2028?

Dec 26, 8:37 AMJan 3, 7:59 AM

5.68%chance

305108

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4077

245

Will expressive negative opinions on people with AI partners be considered hate speech by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.96%chance

743637

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1099

834

Will Elon Musk express support for Cape Independence by 2025?

Sep 23, 1:43 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

5.22%chance

113547

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2752

740

Will Xi Jinping publicly express concern about AI extinction risk before 2026?

Jun 1, 4:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22.02%chance

342899

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1901

467

Will an elected US Federal official express that "If anyone builds it, everyone dies" before 2026?

Jul 3, 5:09 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

35.68%chance

152245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1343

745

Will Donald Trump express support for the 'nuclear option" of breaking legislative filibuster, before September 2025?

Aug 12, 1:30 PMSep 1, 3:59 AM

61.41%chance

191684

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1261

793

Before 2026, will frontier AI models get much better at expressing calibrated uncertainty in their answers?

Feb 6, 12:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65.35%chance

8758

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1373

728

are LLMs easy to align because unsupervised learning imbues them with an ontology where human values are easy to express

Aug 29, 2:34 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

31.74%chance

13659

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1117

901

Will JS Module Expressions reach stage 3 by 2026?

May 28, 9:13 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

59.74%chance

2225

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1218

821

Will a sitting member of U.S. Congress express support for the #LandBack movement before 2026?

Jan 10, 2:53 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

40.84%chance

536

OptionVotes

YES

NO

123

99

Will CNSA's Interstellar Express probe reach 100 AU from the sun by 2055?

Sep 17, 2:41 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

60.69%chance

215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

78

What year will the Interborough Express (IBX) in New York City open for passenger service?

May 26, 7:04 AMJan 1, 8:04 AM

110

OptionProbability

Other

2034

2035

2036

40

20

20

20

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