EY News

Will Zoro ever open his left eye?

May 24, 3:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.99%chance

9315332

OptionVotes

YES

1252

652

Is the probability of dying in Anthropic Snake Eyes 1/36?

Jul 20, 8:54 PMDec 31, 9:54 PM

18.62%chance

246864

OptionVotes

YES

1337

860

If Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?

Aug 7, 10:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

515944

OptionProbability

EY suffers severe mental degeneration leading to delusions

EY's mind changes such that a boring explanation is worldview-shattering

Aliens

Demons (as in a traditional Abrahamic religion)

Idealism (Consciousness underpins physical reality)

Simulation Hypothesis

UFOs are time travelers

Holographic Principle

UFOs are angels

UFOs are psychic manifestations

Eliezer knows aliens are real and will be disclosed soon. He's rallying people to dump money into a bet he is secretly betting against to teach them about the fallacy of appeal to authority.

Other

UFOs are a product of a massive conspiracy unrelated to non-human entities

Ultraterrestrials (home-grown, advanced non-human civs, hidden from us)

UFOs are part of/directed by a superintelligence

AI is harder than practical interstellar travel

UFOs are aliens intentionally both hiding themselves and revealing themselves to sow chaos

UFOs are magic

Do the Waymo Lidar Lasers harm human eyes significantly?

Aug 29, 8:55 PMDec 1, 7:59 AM

21.05%chance

364630

OptionVotes

YES

1937

516

Will replacement eyes be on the market by 2050?

May 11, 9:49 AMDec 18, 11:59 PM

61.54%chance

451827

OptionVotes

YES

1115

919

Will climate change still be a controversial topic in the public eye by 2040?

Jun 5, 9:43 PMJan 2, 11:00 PM

47.09%chance

361676

OptionVotes

YES

1110

794

Will a novel computing medium enter consumer electronics by EYO 2030?

Dec 16, 7:15 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

47.13%chance

24760

OptionVotes

YES

1036

960

What's the probability of death in Snake Eyes Variant N?

Sep 8, 6:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.96%chance

9573

OptionVotes

YES

372

367

There are no USA Presidents that had Green eyes. Will there be one by March 1st 2063?

Mar 21, 5:50 PMMar 2, 4:59 AM

28.47%chance

12547

OptionVotes

YES

1003

926

Will replacement eyes be available by 2050?

May 12, 8:50 AMDec 19, 11:59 PM

82.99%chance

13526

OptionVotes

YES

1147

940

Will any living self-identified EA donate an eye by 2030?

Nov 10, 8:34 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

23.32%chance

16381

OptionVotes

YES

1020

874

Will the first intelligent extraterrestrial that humanity encounters have what would be commonly described as eyes?

Apr 7, 9:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.55%chance

16186

OptionVotes

YES

1122

890

EY News

Prediction markets for EY

Prediction markets for EY

Prediction markets for EY

Will Zoro ever open his left eye?

Is the probability of dying in Anthropic Snake Eyes 1/36?

If Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?

Do the Waymo Lidar Lasers harm human eyes significantly?

Will replacement eyes be on the market by 2050?

Will climate change still be a controversial topic in the public eye by 2040?

Will a novel computing medium enter consumer electronics by EYO 2030?

What's the probability of death in Snake Eyes Variant N?

There are no USA Presidents that had Green eyes. Will there be one by March 1st 2063?

Will replacement eyes be available by 2050?

Will any living self-identified EA donate an eye by 2030?

Will the first intelligent extraterrestrial that humanity encounters have what would be commonly described as eyes?

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