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Prediction markets for FA

Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?

Dec 31, 12:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.69%chance

10021129172

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12085

8747

China's rebar failure rate below 20% in 2025 national quality check?

Nov 26, 6:18 AMJul 29, 10:59 PM

95.74%chance

102648707

OptionVotes

NO

YES

474260

21113

Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?

Dec 16, 2:35 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

56.55%chance

162342458

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1142

877

Will consumer AI platforms (ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, etc) face an ‘economic blackout’ protest against the US govt?

Jan 25, 8:48 PMJul 30, 10:59 PM

9.78%chance

7433911

OptionVotes

YES

NO

30376

3292

Will Fannie Mae and/or Freddie Mac be privatized before February 2029?

Jan 8, 2:44 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

61.49%chance

2133381

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12451

8103

Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?

Jun 11, 5:42 AMMar 1, 12:59 PM

5%chance

918354

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2482

1495

Will Israel strike Iran's nuclear facilities before the end of 2026?

Jul 7, 8:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63%chance

407401

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1306

767

What range will Polymarket token FDV fall in one week after launch?

Jan 29, 1:58 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

45073

OptionProbability

Over $8B

$4B-$6B

$2B-$4B

$6B-$8B

Under $2B

N/A

51

14

10

10

8

8

What will happen to Hugging Face?

Feb 22, 8:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

764893

OptionProbability

Acquisition (for >$4.5bn)

IPO

None of the above before 2029

Bankruptcy, collapse or acquisition for <$4.5bn

49

28

13

11

Who will win the 2025-2026 FA Cup?

Sep 24, 3:56 PMMay 29, 11:59 PM

203104

OptionProbability

Arsenal

Man City

Other

Newcastle

Liverpool

Chelsea

Tottenham

Man United

45

20

19

7

5

2

1

1

Will "Why you should eat meat - even if you hate fa..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 25, 11:28 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.94%chance

5611

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1081

987

Will Henry (arithmoquine) try 2-FA, 4-FA, 2FMA, DOI, DOM, or 4FMA by EOY 2029

Nov 14, 4:24 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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