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Prediction markets for FA

Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?

Dec 31, 12:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.44%chance

19162826013

OptionVotes

YES

NO

37612

4653

Fable reenabled for Europeans before July 1?

Jun 13, 9:49 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

8.64%chance

594240930

OptionVotes

YES

NO

32508

3076

Will consumer AI platforms (ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, etc) face an ‘economic blackout’ protest against the US govt?

Jan 25, 8:48 PMJul 30, 10:59 PM

3.49%chance

8665771

OptionVotes

YES

NO

52623

1900

Will Fannie Mae and/or Freddie Mac be privatized before February 2029?

Jan 8, 2:44 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

55.14%chance

2236311

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10897

9212

Will there be an Atlas V launch failure before retirement?

Jun 11, 2:20 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

18.79%chance

1515784

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10697

2759

Fully indistinguishable fast human deepfakes before 2030?

Feb 8, 2:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.93%chance

7014663

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14553

6871

Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?

Jun 11, 5:42 AMMar 1, 12:59 PM

5.2%chance

928379

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2389

1500

What range will Polymarket token FDV fall in one week after launch?

Jan 29, 1:58 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

56573

OptionProbability

Over $8B

$4B-$6B

$2B-$4B

$6B-$8B

N/A

Under $2B

53

14

9

9

8

7

What will happen to Hugging Face?

Feb 22, 8:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

785173

OptionProbability

Acquisition (for >$4.5bn)

IPO

None of the above before 2029

Bankruptcy, collapse or acquisition for <$4.5bn

49

27

13

10

Will "Why you should eat meat - even if you hate fa..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 25, 11:28 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.94%chance

5611

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1081

987

2026-2027 FA Cup Winner

Apr 6, 2:54 PMMay 21, 11:59 PM

5192

OptionProbability

Other

Arsenal

Manchester City

Liverpool

Chelsea

Manchester United

Newcastle

35

14

14

11

10

10

6

Will Henry (arithmoquine) try 2-FA, 4-FA, 2FMA, DOI, DOM, or 4FMA by EOY 2029

Nov 14, 4:24 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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