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Prediction markets for FA

Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?

Dec 31, 12:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.3%chance

17542357635

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13057

8379

China's rebar failure rate below 20% in 2025 national quality check?

Nov 26, 6:18 AMJul 29, 10:59 PM

96.6%chance

1291859226

OptionVotes

NO

YES

533470

18769

Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?

Dec 16, 2:35 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

55.33%chance

194359051

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1114

899

Will consumer AI platforms (ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, etc) face an ‘economic blackout’ protest against the US govt?

Jan 25, 8:48 PMJul 30, 10:59 PM

9.29%chance

7639546

OptionVotes

YES

NO

31241

3201

Will Fannie Mae and/or Freddie Mac be privatized before February 2029?

Jan 8, 2:44 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

57.06%chance

2235957

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11340

8865

Fully indistinguishable fast human deepfakes before 2030?

Feb 8, 2:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.93%chance

7014663

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14553

6871

Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?

Jun 11, 5:42 AMMar 1, 12:59 PM

5.54%chance

928367

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2247

1508

Who will win the 2025-2026 FA Cup?

Sep 24, 3:56 PMMay 29, 11:59 PM

375807

OptionProbability

Arsenal

Man City

Chelsea

Liverpool

Other

Tottenham

Man United

Newcastle

38

22

17

12

10

1

1

1

What will happen to Hugging Face?

Feb 22, 8:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

775143

OptionProbability

Acquisition (for >$4.5bn)

IPO

None of the above before 2029

Bankruptcy, collapse or acquisition for <$4.5bn

49

27

13

10

What range will Polymarket token FDV fall in one week after launch?

Jan 29, 1:58 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

45073

OptionProbability

Over $8B

$4B-$6B

$2B-$4B

$6B-$8B

Under $2B

N/A

51

14

10

10

8

8

Will "Why you should eat meat - even if you hate fa..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 25, 11:28 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.94%chance

5611

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1081

987

Will Henry (arithmoquine) try 2-FA, 4-FA, 2FMA, DOI, DOM, or 4FMA by EOY 2029

Nov 14, 4:24 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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