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Prediction markets for FA

State Farm announces it is leaving the California residential insurance market, announcement before December 31, 2025

Feb 15, 2:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.22%chance

49322236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

332970

14627

China's rebar failure rate below 20% in 2025 national quality check?

Nov 26, 6:18 AMJul 29, 10:59 PM

85%chance

76183062

OptionVotes

NO

YES

238021

42013

Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?

Dec 16, 2:35 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

50%chance

106124484

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?

Jan 22, 8:06 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

94.38%chance

6954522

OptionVotes

NO

YES

40105

2172

The Political Fate of Elon

Sep 15, 6:45 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4848100

OptionProbability

Pay >$50m in fines/settlements if Dems win

Convicted of felony if Dems win

X shut down/sold if Dems win

Pay >$50m in fines/settlements if Reps win

Convicted of felony if Reps win

X shut down/sold if Reps win

30

23

18

4

3

2

Will Fannie Mae and/or Freddie Mac be privatized before February 2029?

Jan 8, 2:44 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

65.25%chance

1722896

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13518

7480

Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?

Jun 11, 5:42 AMMar 1, 12:59 PM

6.21%chance

906447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2009

1523

What range will Polymarket token FDV fall in one week after launch?

Jan 29, 1:58 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

34973

OptionProbability

Over $8B

$4B-$6B

$2B-$4B

$6B-$8B

Under $2B

N/A

51

14

10

10

8

8

What will happen to Hugging Face?

Feb 22, 8:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

764893

OptionProbability

Acquisition (for >$4.5bn)

IPO

None of the above before 2029

Bankruptcy, collapse or acquisition for <$4.5bn

49

28

13

11

Who will win the 2025-2026 FA Cup?

Sep 24, 3:56 PMMay 29, 11:59 PM

9633

OptionProbability

Man City

Arsenal

Liverpool

Man United

Chelsea

Tottenham

Newcastle

Other

41

24

11

6

5

5

5

5

Will "Why you should eat meat - even if you hate fa..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 25, 11:28 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.94%chance

5611

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1081

987

Will Henry (arithmoquine) try 2-FA, 4-FA, 2FMA, DOI, DOM, or 4FMA by EOY 2029

Nov 14, 4:24 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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