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Prediction markets for FA

Will Iran's regime fall in 2026?

Dec 31, 12:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.62%chance

19663065098

OptionVotes

YES

NO

47087

4107

Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?

Dec 16, 2:35 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

21.61%chance

211376761

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1906

525

Will the farm bill (HR 7567) pass and destroy / federally preempt state animal welfare laws?

Apr 29, 12:45 AMJan 14, 12:59 AM

16.18%chance

9340009

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10258

1941

Will Fannie Mae and/or Freddie Mac be privatized before February 2029?

Jan 8, 2:44 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

55.06%chance

2236326

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10879

9227

Will there be an Atlas V launch failure before retirement?

Jun 11, 2:20 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

18.74%chance

1615804

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10717

2754

Fully indistinguishable fast human deepfakes before 2030?

Feb 8, 2:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.93%chance

7014663

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14553

6871

Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?

Jun 11, 5:42 AMMar 1, 12:59 PM

5.2%chance

928379

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2389

1500

What range will Polymarket token FDV fall in one week after launch?

Jan 29, 1:58 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

56573

OptionProbability

Over $8B

$4B-$6B

$2B-$4B

$6B-$8B

N/A

Under $2B

53

14

9

9

8

7

Will "Why you should eat meat - even if you hate fa..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 25, 11:28 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.94%chance

5611

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1081

987

2026-2027 FA Cup Winner

Apr 6, 2:54 PMMay 21, 11:59 PM

10282

OptionProbability

Arsenal

Other

Chelsea

Manchester City

Manchester United

Liverpool

Newcastle

23

22

16

12

12

10

4

If Chelsea Voss were to 1v1 Domenic Denicola in Supreme Commander: FA, would she win?

Jul 12, 8:50 PMDec 31, 9:50 PM

52.91%chance

28

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

94

Will Henry (arithmoquine) try 2-FA, 4-FA, 2FMA, DOI, DOM, or 4FMA by EOY 2029

Nov 14, 4:24 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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