FAA News

What will be true about the mystery drones flying over New Jersey (NJ)?

Dec 5, 5:33 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22697498

OptionProbability

It's just hysteria/mistaken sightings

Two or more propositions in this market excluding this one will resolve as true/yes

Many of them are hobbyist drones looking for/chasing the "original" drones

The drones will have mostly vanished by inauguration

They record images/video using digital cameras

More drones are flying at night after a Sept 2023 change in FAA regulations, leading to an increase in sightings

Their true nature will remain a mystery

Four or more propositions in this market excluding this one will resolve as true/yes

Belong to a hobbyist

Local officials lack equipment sensitive enough to gauge size and relative threat

At least 1 drone is shot down and recovered

Uses cellular networks to send and receive data

Belong to an activist

Major Mexican TV network runs story implying drones are alien tech

Linked to illegal drug activity

Some drones use advanced technology not available to the public

An adversary is trying to force the US's hand into revealing their anti-drone tech

Redditor on r/UFOs (post with >= 10k upvotes) claims abduction by drones

Belong to a start-up

Someone will attempt to shoot down a drone and end up injuring themselves or others

they're designed to look like a commercial jet

Does not use cellular networks to send and receive data

Belong to a large company

Belong to the US military/gov

Operated by (foreign) intelligence agency / military of a US adversary

Are investigating Plasmoids

They’re looking for ionizing radiation

Hoax put on specifically by Anthpo

Are investigating Gamma Radiation

Operated by (foreign) intelligence agency / military of a country allied to the US

Linked to Russia (government/military)

It's a publicity stunt for a company

Belong to a foreign government/agency

Aliens

Linked to Blockchain technology

AI superintelligence

Terrorism

It's a new delivery service

Linked to North Korea

Linked to China (government/military)

100% of all footage of the drones was AI generated

Secret private industry ARVs investigating the orbs individuals are summoning through meditation.

Will the United States legalize commercial supersonic flight over land before 2026?

Jul 2, 3:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

93.3%chance

275423

OptionVotes

YES

3030

110

Will the FAA Lift the Sonic Boom Ban by June 30, 2028?

Mar 8, 5:52 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

86.15%chance

153675

OptionVotes

YES

2494

401

Will anyone on Earth be injured by debris from a Starlink satellite by the start of 2035?

Jan 15, 9:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.35%chance

132254

OptionVotes

YES

2943

340

Will any FAANG company be split up due to antitrust action before 2029?

Jan 23, 6:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.42%chance

382195

OptionVotes

YES

1011

980

@chrisjbillington omnimarket 1 - add questions you want me to resolve and clarify on your behalf

Jan 13, 5:57 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

52033

OptionProbability

Will SpaceX's Starship–SuperHeavy lift off from the launch pad two or more times between 1 January 2024 and 1 July 2024 inclusive?

Will Manifold users reach the $10,000 monthly charity donation cap in any of the first six months of 2024? (Excepting the excluded period at the start of January)?

Will Starship IFT-3 launch within a week of receiving the launch license from the FAA?

To whom does Manifold need to extend its userbase in order to be self-sustaining (link in comments)

[Don't bet on this yet, criteria TBA] How many Manifold users will have a net worth of 1 million mana or more on 1 July 2024? (Rules below)

Will the Tesla Cybertruck be available in Australia by 2034?

[At least ten answers will be added in 2024 that I don't initially N/A]

[At least fifty answers will be added in 2024 that I don't initially N/A]

100

Which of the FAANG stocks will have the best calendar year performance in 2025?

Jan 8, 3:52 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

121686

OptionProbability

Meta (META)

Netflix (NFLX)

Alphabet (GOOGL)

Amazon (AMZN)

Apple (AAPL)

Will 90% of FAA air traffic controllers be fired as a direct result of Artificial Intelligence by 2030?

Mar 1, 6:10 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

14.75%chance

15617

OptionVotes

YES

1428

841

Which eVTOL manufacturer will be first to achieve FAA certification?

Aug 10, 4:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6314

OptionProbability

Joby

Archer

Beta Technologies

Wisk

Removed - will resolve N/A

Other

Volocopter

Will the FAA delay approval for any SpaceX flight for more than 30 days in 2025?

Nov 8, 3:45 PMJan 1, 4:59 PM

60.52%chance

8260

OptionVotes

YES

124

Will Cluely (formerly, Interview Coder) end Leetcode at a FAANG or Unicorn before 2026?

Apr 23, 2:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.77%chance

6165

OptionVotes

YES

261

Will Donald Trump privatize the FAA’s Air Traffic Control (ATC) system during his presidency?

Nov 11, 10:53 PMJan 6, 4:59 AM

22.24%chance

7140

OptionVotes

YES

187

FAA News

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Prediction markets for FAA

Prediction markets for FAA

Prediction markets for FAA

What will be true about the mystery drones flying over New Jersey (NJ)?

Will the United States legalize commercial supersonic flight over land before 2026?

Will the FAA Lift the Sonic Boom Ban by June 30, 2028?

Will anyone on Earth be injured by debris from a Starlink satellite by the start of 2035?

Will any FAANG company be split up due to antitrust action before 2029?

@chrisjbillington omnimarket 1 - add questions you want me to resolve and clarify on your behalf

Which of the FAANG stocks will have the best calendar year performance in 2025?

Will 90% of FAA air traffic controllers be fired as a direct result of Artificial Intelligence by 2030?

Which eVTOL manufacturer will be first to achieve FAA certification?

Will the FAA delay approval for any SpaceX flight for more than 30 days in 2025?

Will Cluely (formerly, Interview Coder) end Leetcode at a FAANG or Unicorn before 2026?

Will Donald Trump privatize the FAA’s Air Traffic Control (ATC) system during his presidency?

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