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Prediction markets for Fable

Which new words will Anthropic use to name Claude models? (Haiku, Sonnet, Opus, Fable, Mythos, ...)

Jun 14, 2:36 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

395669

OptionProbability

Claude Saga

Claude Epic

Claude … the name of a real (animal species, or settlement, or geological feature)

Claude … Quest, or Goliath

Claude Ballad

Claude Odyssey

Canon

Claude Parable

Claude Anthology

Claude Novel

Claude Legend

Claude Chronicle

Claude Requiem

Claude Allegory

Shannon

Claude Lore

Claude Tale

Claude Myth

19

17

16

16

16

15

14

13

13

12

11

11

11

10

7

4

3

2

Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of March 2027?

Aug 30, 6:29 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

86.31%chance

193431

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2511

398

When will the next Claude Fable be released?

Sep 1, 6:13 PMFeb 2, 5:59 AM

142985

OptionProbability

Before February 2027

Before January 2027

Before December 2026

Before November 2026

Before October 2026

93

87

82

69

16

Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026?

Aug 30, 6:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.01%chance

172834

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1062

942

Will Fable remain at the top of the coding ranking?

Jun 30, 9:15 AMDec 31, 10:05 AM

18.95%chance

132346

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2068

484

Will there be any Chinese Fable-level models by March 2027, defined as a model with an ECI score of 160 or higher?

Jul 14, 1:48 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

88%chance

131869

OptionVotes

NO

YES

271

37

When will Fable return to the Pro plan?

Jul 18, 7:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

161419

OptionProbability

Before Nov 2026

Before July 21 2026

Before Aug 2026

Before Sept 2026

30

0

0

0

Will the next Claude Fable release score higher on ECI than the next GPT Astra release?

Sep 3, 9:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.18%chance

91236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1419

705

Will Fable 5.1 still trigger safeguards all the time?

Aug 26, 6:07 PMSep 25, 6:06 PM

72.88%chance

16899

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1083

727

Will "American Government Takes Down Claude Fable" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jun 15, 3:37 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10.16%chance

3555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1368

950

What will Claude Fable 5 score on ARC-AGI-3?

Jun 12, 7:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.99%chance

17498

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

89

How many labs will have a model that is higher than Fable 5 on the arena.ai agent arena at the end of 2026?

Sep 13, 11:19 AMDec 30, 11:00 PM

3130

OptionProbability

Above 1

Above 2

Above 3

Above 4

Above 5

95

72

50

34

24

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