Fabric News

Will a Galactic Federation reveal itself to humanity by the end of 2050?

May 2, 2:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.13%chance

254589

OptionVotes

YES

2353

Has Israel used recordings of crying children or distressed women to lure Palestinians out of hiding?

Apr 18, 2:44 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

10%chance

394035

OptionVotes

YES

2008

763

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.88%chance

233212

OptionVotes

YES

1925

695

Will the release of the FBI tapes of Martin Luther King Jr. corroborate the claim that he participated in rape?

Jan 11, 5:25 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

22.49%chance

283124

OptionVotes

YES

1857

539

Is Whistleblower David Charles Grusch Telling The Truth About Non-Human Craft Recoveries?

Jun 6, 1:12 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.73%chance

183089

OptionVotes

YES

1442

916

Tesla (props)

Mar 7, 11:01 AMMar 7, 11:01 AM

171409

OptionProbability

Optimus robots deployed in Tesla factories (>10 units) by Dec 31, 2026

Cybercab production exceeds 500/month by Sep 30, 2026

Marques Brownlee shaves his head on camera by December 31, 2026

Cortex 2 AI cluster operational by August 1, 2026

Unsupervised FSD releases to non-employees in US by June 30, 2026

Tesla merges with SpaceX by December 31, 2026

Terafab fabricates at least one chip in 2026

TSLA stock closes above $500 before April 1, 2026

Will a semiconductor fabrication plant project in Australia be announced before June 1st 2026?

Dec 18, 11:25 PMJun 2, 1:59 AM

15.21%chance

11713

OptionVotes

YES

413

111

Will China deploy domestic EUV sub-7nm chips for major tech by EOY 2026?

Dec 18, 6:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7%chance

10483

OptionVotes

YES

142

What Will Be the Next Big Tech Industry Hype Cycle Thing After GPT-Enabled LLM's?

Mar 12, 6:40 PMDec 1, 5:59 AM

19463

OptionProbability

Robots

Some As of Early 2024 Not Even Published Yet Architecture as Revolutionary as Transformers was in 2017

Synthetic Biology / Genetic Engineering: For example, developing new vaccines, engineering proteins for sustainable fabric production, developing cell-cultured meats, plant-based meat alternatives, and engineering human immune cells.

Quantum Computing

Will another congressperson have pulled a "George Santos" before November 2028?

Oct 19, 12:12 PMNov 2, 3:59 AM

43.06%chance

2150

OptionVotes

YES

1150

870

A robot can work a drawstring for a sweatshirt back out through the hole when it's been pulled in too far by mid 2045

Oct 27, 10:15 PMJun 30, 10:13 PM

68.66%chance

468

OptionVotes

YES

148

Will it be shown JoAnn E. Manson committed academic misconduct by 2040?

Apr 8, 11:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.04%chance

OptionVotes

YES

Fabric News

Prediction markets for Fabric

Prediction markets for Fabric

Prediction markets for Fabric

Will a Galactic Federation reveal itself to humanity by the end of 2050?

Has Israel used recordings of crying children or distressed women to lure Palestinians out of hiding?

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Will the release of the FBI tapes of Martin Luther King Jr. corroborate the claim that he participated in rape?

Is Whistleblower David Charles Grusch Telling The Truth About Non-Human Craft Recoveries?

Tesla (props)

Will a semiconductor fabrication plant project in Australia be announced before June 1st 2026?

Will China deploy domestic EUV sub-7nm chips for major tech by EOY 2026?

What Will Be the Next Big Tech Industry Hype Cycle Thing After GPT-Enabled LLM's?

Will another congressperson have pulled a "George Santos" before November 2028?

A robot can work a drawstring for a sweatshirt back out through the hole when it's been pulled in too far by mid 2045

Will it be shown JoAnn E. Manson committed academic misconduct by 2040?

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