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Prediction markets for Facebook

Will Meta's Metaverse ever outearn its Facebook?

Nov 5, 12:11 AMJul 23, 3:59 AM

18.16%chance

221207

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1492

847

Facebook will ship a clearly traditional Avatar system on PC by mid 2026, no more forced ambiguous self-presentatation

Jan 10, 9:22 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

19.22%chance

51130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2050

488

Meta (Facebook) launches real money prediction market app by end of 2027?

Jun 23, 5:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.82%chance

81000

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1195

837

Under Hawley's proposed law, would the generative AI definition apply to curation algorithms like YouTube or Facebook?

Dec 6, 10:18 PMMar 16, 3:59 AM

8%chance

14604

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1163

953

Will Meta (Facebook) deliver on it's web3/metaverse vision before 2030?

Oct 27, 9:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.3%chance

9585

OptionVotes

YES

NO

656

50

Will YouTube surpass Facebook to be the #1 social media platform in 2027?

Jan 11, 1:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60.64%chance

11281

OptionVotes

NO

YES

229

109

EU sheeple need government app to access Facebook or X by EOY2026?

Jun 5, 11:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.72%chance

14237

OptionVotes

YES

NO

215

46

Will automation software let me automatically archive my entire Facebook feed by 2026? (with comment threads)?

Feb 8, 7:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.86%chance

7215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

227

140

Will Facebook users with de-personalized ads have better consumer outcomes?

Feb 24, 8:07 PMMar 4, 7:59 AM

45.93%chance

5175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108

92

When will more questions be sent daily on ChatGPT than on Facebook apps (Messenger and Instagram, etc)?

Dec 5, 12:47 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

390

OptionProbability

≥2030 or never

2026

2027

2028

2029

2025

Other

30

15

15

15

15

5

5

Will YouTube surpass Facebook to be the #1 social media platform in 2029?

Jan 11, 1:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.34%chance

656

OptionVotes

YES

NO

159

141

messenger facebook Aİ release by 2030

Jan 16, 3:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

121

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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