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Prediction markets for Facebook

Meta (Facebook) launches real money prediction market app by end of 2027?

Jun 23, 5:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.86%chance

161891

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1148

871

Will Meta's Metaverse ever outearn its Facebook?

Nov 5, 12:11 AMJul 23, 3:59 AM

18.16%chance

221207

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1492

847

Which social network will surpass Facebook's monthly active users first?

Jul 28, 5:35 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

20749

OptionProbability

YouTube

TikTok

Other

WhatsApp

Instagram

WeChat

66

29

2

1

1

1

Will Dustin Moskovitz (Facebook, Open Philanthropy, Good Ventures) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 15, 5:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.76%chance

6634

OptionVotes

YES

NO

332

131

Under Hawley's proposed law, would the generative AI definition apply to curation algorithms like YouTube or Facebook?

Dec 6, 10:18 PMMar 16, 3:59 AM

8%chance

14604

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1163

953

Will YouTube surpass Facebook to be the #1 social media platform in 2027?

Jan 11, 1:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60.64%chance

11281

OptionVotes

NO

YES

229

109

Will Facebook users with de-personalized ads have better consumer outcomes?

Feb 24, 8:07 PMMar 4, 7:59 AM

45.93%chance

5175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108

92

When will more questions be sent daily on ChatGPT than on Facebook apps (Messenger and Instagram, etc)?

Dec 5, 12:47 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

390

OptionProbability

≥2030 or never

2026

2027

2028

2029

2025

Other

30

15

15

15

15

5

5

Will YouTube surpass Facebook to be the #1 social media platform in 2026?

Jan 11, 1:57 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.12%chance

583

OptionVotes

YES

NO

216

120

Will YouTube surpass Facebook to be the #1 social media platform in 2029?

Jan 11, 1:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.34%chance

656

OptionVotes

YES

NO

159

141

Will YouTube surpass Facebook to be the #1 social media platform in 2030?

Jan 11, 1:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.42%chance

443

OptionVotes

YES

NO

157

112

messenger facebook Aİ release by 2030

Jan 16, 3:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

121

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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