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Prediction markets for Facebook

Will Meta's Metaverse ever outearn its Facebook?

Nov 5, 12:11 AMJul 23, 3:59 AM

19.06%chance

211145

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1430

861

Will Dustin Moskovitz (Facebook, Open Philanthropy, Good Ventures) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 15, 5:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.76%chance

6634

OptionVotes

YES

NO

332

131

Under Hawley's proposed law, would the generative AI definition apply to curation algorithms like YouTube or Facebook?

Dec 6, 10:18 PMMar 16, 3:59 AM

8%chance

14604

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1163

953

Will Meta (Facebook) deliver on it's web3/metaverse vision before 2030?

Oct 27, 9:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.3%chance

9585

OptionVotes

YES

NO

656

50

In which year will there be a social network with more active users than Facebook?

Jul 28, 5:30 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

21.01%chance

7268

OptionProbability

NO

YES

352

213

EU sheeple need government app to access Facebook or X by EOY2026?

Jun 5, 11:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.15%chance

13227

OptionVotes

YES

NO

205

49

Will automation software let me automatically archive my entire Facebook feed by 2026? (with comment threads)?

Feb 8, 7:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.86%chance

7215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

227

140

Will Facebook users with de-personalized ads have better consumer outcomes?

Feb 24, 8:07 PMMar 4, 7:59 AM

45.93%chance

5175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108

92

Will YouTube surpass Facebook to be the #1 social media platform in 2028?

Jan 11, 1:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69%chance

8170

OptionVotes

NO

YES

254

99

Facebook will ship a clearly traditional Avatar system on PC by mid 2026, no more forced ambiguous self-presentatation

Jan 10, 9:22 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

49.98%chance

380

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will Facebook increase its friend limit beyond 5000 friends by 2028?

Apr 27, 3:37 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.66%chance

473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

136

90

Facebook's default group avatar configuration becomes more representative, by mid 2026

Feb 18, 8:46 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

52.09%chance

215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

96

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