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Prediction markets for FACT

Virginia State University shooting facts

Aug 15, 5:51 PMSep 30, 5:41 PM

132564

OptionProbability

Multiple shooters (actually fired weapons, not just involved)

Motivated by personal grievance

Motivated by overtly racist ideology

Motivated by right-wing ideology

There is a manifesto

At least one victim dies

62

58

32

31

22

13

Bear Facts Stock (Permanent)

Aug 27, 7:52 PMApr 20, 10:59 PM

122111

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1085

904

Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?

Jun 6, 10:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.61%chance

271389

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1167

885

UK electoral advertising to become regulated so that fact-based claims are accurate, by the end of 2035

Feb 16, 9:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

8563

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will a United States judge or clerk cite an incorrect fact originating from ChatGPT in a court ruling?

Apr 30, 1:25 PMApr 30, 10:59 PM

87.5%chance

10455

OptionVotes

NO

YES

302

67

Will a problem on the 2027 IMO nontrivially use the fact that 2027 is a prime?

Jul 23, 9:49 PMJul 31, 9:14 PM

32.51%chance

12249

OptionVotes

YES

NO

144

69

This decade, will a popular YouTuber release a video posthumously that casually references the fact that they had died?

Aug 20, 9:39 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

47.16%chance

11110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

237

182

Will "Community misconduct disputes are not about facts" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 24, 1:19 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.23%chance

3107

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1058

991

Will "Surprising facts about the slave trade" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jun 26, 12:48 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.33%chance

290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

992

UK electoral advertising to become regulated so that fact-based claims are accurate, by the end of 2030

Feb 9, 9:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31%chance

568

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

67

Tell me something interesting! (Rabbit holes, Jokes, Fun facts...)

Dec 17, 8:39 PM

00

On mobile, do you use Google search for "confirmation of basic facts" more than actually searching for specific things?

Mar 18, 12:03 AM

220

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