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Prediction markets for FACT

When will the first mainstream article cover facts in Sokolowski, et. al. v. Silbert, et. al. Second Amended Complaint?

Jan 5, 3:11 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

910496

OptionProbability

Before 6/30/2026

Before 4/30/2026

Before 5/31/2026

Before 3/31/2026

Before 2/28/2026

Before 3/15/2026

Before 1/7/2026

Before 1/10/2026

Before 1/14/2026

Before 1/20/2026

Before 1/31/2026

Before 2/15/2026

13

10

10

3

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

Bear Facts Stock (Permanent)

Aug 27, 7:52 PMApr 20, 10:59 PM

122100

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1107

893

Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?

Jun 6, 10:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.3%chance

271379

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1177

880

UK electoral advertising to become regulated so that fact-based claims are accurate, by the end of 2035

Feb 16, 9:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53%chance

6549

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

94

Will a United States judge or clerk cite an incorrect fact originating from ChatGPT in a court ruling?

Apr 30, 1:25 PMApr 30, 10:59 PM

84.75%chance

7184

OptionVotes

NO

YES

262

74

This decade, will a popular YouTuber release a video posthumously that casually references the fact that they had died?

Aug 20, 9:39 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

47.16%chance

11110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

237

182

Will a problem on the 2027 IMO nontrivially use the fact that 2027 is a prime?

Jul 23, 9:49 PMJul 31, 9:14 PM

57.01%chance

577

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

87

Conditional on spending more than 10K USD on trying to get a US visa by the end of 2026, will I in fact get such a visa?

Jul 24, 3:26 AMJul 1, 7:00 AM

74.65%chance

476

OptionVotes

YES

NO

100

99

UK electoral advertising to become regulated so that fact-based claims are accurate, by the end of 2030

Feb 9, 9:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31%chance

568

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

67

do you know fact 5

Feb 3, 2:35 AM

100

On mobile, do you use Google search for "confirmation of basic facts" more than actually searching for specific things?

Mar 18, 12:03 AM

220

Tell me something interesting! (Rabbit holes, Jokes, Fun facts...)

Dec 17, 8:39 PM

00

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