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Prediction markets for FACT

Will a big transformer LM compose these facts without chain of thought by 2026?

Jan 19, 5:08 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

53.29%chance

7835768

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2327

929

Will a big transformer LM compose these facts without chain of thought by 2026? (harder question version)

Jan 19, 4:49 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

42.86%chance

428456

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1222

715

Bear Facts Stock (Permanent)

Aug 27, 7:52 PMApr 20, 10:59 PM

112094

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1119

887

Will an all AI system be used for real-time fact checking during a televised US presidential debate before 2029?

Jun 6, 10:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.23%chance

261269

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1408

785

Will a United States judge or clerk cite an incorrect fact originating from ChatGPT in a court ruling?

Apr 30, 1:25 PMApr 30, 10:59 PM

84.75%chance

7184

OptionVotes

NO

YES

262

74

This decade, will a popular YouTuber release a video posthumously that casually references the fact that they had died?

Aug 20, 9:39 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

50.69%chance

1095

OptionVotes

YES

NO

222

196

Will hallucinations (made up facts) created by LLMs go below 1% on specific corpora before 2025?

Feb 23, 11:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.63%chance

991

OptionVotes

YES

NO

185

158

Will a problem on the 2027 IMO nontrivially use the fact that 2027 is a prime?

Jul 23, 9:49 PMJul 31, 9:14 PM

57.01%chance

577

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

87

Conditional on spending more than 10K USD on trying to get a US visa by the end of 2026, will I in fact get such a visa?

Jul 24, 3:26 AMJul 1, 7:00 AM

74.65%chance

476

OptionVotes

YES

NO

100

99

Will "You can, in fact, bamboozle an unaligned AI i..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Feb 2, 2:52 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

On mobile, do you use Google search for "confirmation of basic facts" more than actually searching for specific things?

Mar 18, 12:03 AM

210

Best citation for the fact that providing people with an incentive to predict correctly increases their accuracy

Nov 28, 8:01 AM

00

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