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Prediction markets for Factorial

AI factories before 2030? [Remy Gangrien Vs. AI 2027 $10,000 bet]

May 29, 3:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.42%chance

268589

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2784

359

Will some factory farmed animals be made incapable of experiencing any physical or psychological suffering, by 2030?

Feb 10, 12:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

6.5%chance

416868

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2656

778

Will an AI run a factory by the end of 2030 (start of 2031)

May 29, 5:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.46%chance

183013

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1913

523

Will an AI run a factory by the end of 2028 (start of 2029)

May 29, 5:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.71%chance

111813

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2620

382

Will popular opinion in the U.S. be that factory farming is a moral atrocity by end of 2050?

Jan 10, 6:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

70.45%chance

381457

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1231

871

Will popular opinion in the U.S. be that factory farming is a moral atrocity by end of 2040?

Jan 10, 6:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.37%chance

26576

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1147

821

Will popular opinion in the U.S. be that factory farming is a moral atrocity by end of 2075?

Jan 10, 6:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

74.67%chance

25505

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1154

929

Will the first Superintelligence try to end the practice of factory farming (including if only for mammals)?

Aug 18, 10:58 PMAug 18, 10:57 PM

53.16%chance

9475

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1065

939

If biological humans still exist in 2100, the majority of them will regard factory farming as a great evil of the past

Jan 29, 4:38 AMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

68.28%chance

14348

OptionVotes

YES

NO

991

954

Will factory farming still be legal in most countries by 2050?

May 29, 12:30 PMDec 31, 1:30 PM

67.8%chance

9293

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

122

Will the next pandemic be primarily caused or significantly spread by factory farming?

Feb 19, 12:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.36%chance

13263

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1143

915

Will "The Bone-Chilling Evil of Factory Farming " make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 22, 7:17 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

17.61%chance

2100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1039

791

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