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Prediction markets for FAI

China's rebar failure rate below 20% in 2025 national quality check?

Nov 26, 6:18 AMJul 29, 10:59 PM

95.71%chance

103648782

OptionVotes

NO

YES

472581

21188

In which year will a majority of AI researchers concur that a superintelligent, fairly general AI has been realized?

Jul 2, 11:10 AMFeb 16, 1:48 PM

14534927

OptionProbability

Some year after 2040.

AGI will end humanity before such a consensus will be reached

2029

2030

2028

2031

2032

Such a consensus will never be reached because such an AI is not possible to create

2025

2026

2027

2033

2024

2034

2037

2023

2035

2036

2038

2039

2040

33

11

6

6

5

5

4

4

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will USDT (tether) fail by 2030

Jun 17, 6:20 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

16.38%chance

3918203

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2117

200

Will there be an Atlas V launch failure before retirement?

Jun 11, 2:20 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

18.53%chance

1515688

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10793

2737

Will the U.S. have a free and fair presidential election in 2028?

Feb 13, 8:46 PMNov 8, 5:59 AM

70%chance

8113003

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2395

838

Will any GPT beat Stockfish in a fair fight before 2030?

Dec 14, 3:25 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

24.86%chance

5510779

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1190

892

Conditional on Donald Trump winning the election, will there be a free and fair election in 2028?

Jun 30, 7:11 AMJul 31, 1:59 PM

66.82%chance

455975

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1419

705

Will the State of Palestine hold a fair presidential election by 2030?

Apr 21, 1:37 PMDec 31, 10:00 PM

39.81%chance

754549

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1289

924

If a Macron-backed candidate fails to be elected president in 2027, will a far-right candidate win?

Mar 27, 1:43 PMJul 1, 2:59 AM

64.95%chance

272815

OptionVotes

YES

NO

991

945

Will Netflix's brick and mortar stores fail by end of 2026?

Dec 22, 2:59 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

48.87%chance

17828

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1288

559

Will the next El Salvador presidential election be free and fair?

Apr 18, 8:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.7%chance

15616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1403

713

Trump is suing the gov’t for the Mar-a-Lago raid. Will the FBI fail or refuse to provide subpoenaed communications?

Aug 13, 12:35 AMAug 13, 3:59 AM

55.24%chance

4400

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1111

900

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