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Prediction markets for FAI

In which year will a majority of AI researchers concur that a superintelligent, fairly general AI has been realized?

Jul 2, 11:10 AMFeb 16, 1:48 PM

14735087

OptionProbability

Some year after 2040.

AGI will end humanity before such a consensus will be reached

2030

2031

2029

2028

2032

Such a consensus will never be reached because such an AI is not possible to create

2025

2026

2027

2033

2024

2034

2037

2023

2035

2036

2038

2039

2040

31

10

8

8

6

5

4

4

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will USDT (tether) fail by 2030

Jun 17, 6:20 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

15.75%chance

4219873

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2149

194

Will there be an Atlas V launch failure before retirement?

Jun 11, 2:20 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

18.79%chance

1515784

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10697

2759

Will the U.S. have a free and fair presidential election in 2028?

Feb 13, 8:46 PMNov 8, 5:59 AM

63.77%chance

8413130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2485

655

Will any GPT beat Stockfish in a fair fight before 2030?

Dec 14, 3:25 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

23.77%chance

5610829

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1240

876

Conditional on Donald Trump winning the election, will there be a free and fair election in 2028?

Jun 30, 7:11 AMJul 31, 1:59 PM

65%chance

466004

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1363

734

Will the State of Palestine hold a fair presidential election by 2030?

Apr 21, 1:37 PMDec 31, 10:00 PM

30.85%chance

794817

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1207

1136

If a Macron-backed candidate fails to be elected president in 2027, will a far-right candidate win?

Mar 27, 1:43 PMJul 1, 2:59 AM

63.52%chance

282920

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1012

907

US legislature (House or Senate) fails to swear in / seat an elected member after midterms

Feb 7, 8:33 PMJan 4, 11:59 PM

24%chance

61663

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1780

562

Will Netflix's brick and mortar stores fail by end of 2026?

Dec 22, 2:59 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

48.87%chance

17828

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1288

559

Will the next El Salvador presidential election be free and fair?

Apr 18, 8:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.7%chance

15616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1403

713

Trump is suing the gov’t for the Mar-a-Lago raid. Will the FBI fail or refuse to provide subpoenaed communications?

Aug 13, 12:35 AMAug 13, 3:59 AM

55.24%chance

4400

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1111

900

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