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Prediction markets for FAIR

In which year will a majority of AI researchers concur that a superintelligent, fairly general AI has been realized?

Jul 2, 11:10 AMFeb 16, 1:48 PM

14334752

OptionProbability

Some year after 2040.

AGI will end humanity before such a consensus will be reached

2029

2030

2028

2031

Such a consensus will never be reached because such an AI is not possible to create

2025

2026

2027

2032

2033

2024

2034

2037

2023

2035

2036

2038

2039

2040

34

11

6

6

5

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will the U.S. have a free and fair presidential election in 2028?

Feb 13, 8:46 PMNov 8, 5:59 AM

73.72%chance

7511924

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2338

983

Will any GPT beat Stockfish in a fair fight before 2030?

Dec 14, 3:25 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

24.74%chance

5510774

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1196

891

Conditional on Trump winning will the 2028 election be fairly held?

Jul 27, 5:38 AMDec 30, 6:59 PM

91.38%chance

438257

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3256

307

Will the 2028 United States presidential election be free and fair, according to ≥75% of Manifold poll respondents?

Jan 20, 12:17 AMFeb 1, 5:59 AM

76.05%chance

236874

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1782

561

Will Manifold consider the 2020 election “free and fair” at the end of 2025?

Jan 20, 7:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76.2%chance

316375

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1790

559

Will the State of Palestine hold a fair presidential election by 2030?

Apr 21, 1:37 PMDec 31, 10:00 PM

23.43%chance

724123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1559

1006

Will Brazil's 2026 election be free and fair?

Sep 2, 8:54 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.23%chance

162896

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1697

589

Opinion poll: Was the 2020 election “free and fair”?

Jan 20, 7:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

82.35%chance

212231

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2160

463

Will the CA FAIR plan get a bailout by 2026?

Jan 9, 8:03 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60%chance

7795

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1225

816

Will the next El Salvador presidential election be free and fair?

Apr 18, 8:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.7%chance

15616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1403

713

FAIR BET Act or similar bill becomes law?

Jul 7, 8:26 PMJan 1, 9:05 PM

47.13%chance

8312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1046

951

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