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Prediction markets for FAIR

In which year will a majority of AI researchers concur that a superintelligent, fairly general AI has been realized?

Jul 2, 11:10 AMFeb 16, 1:48 PM

14735087

OptionProbability

Some year after 2040.

AGI will end humanity before such a consensus will be reached

2030

2031

2029

2028

2032

Such a consensus will never be reached because such an AI is not possible to create

2025

2026

2027

2033

2024

2034

2037

2023

2035

2036

2038

2039

2040

31

10

8

8

6

5

4

4

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will the U.S. have a free and fair presidential election in 2028?

Feb 13, 8:46 PMNov 8, 5:59 AM

63.77%chance

8413130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2485

655

Will any GPT beat Stockfish in a fair fight before 2030?

Dec 14, 3:25 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

23.77%chance

5610829

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1240

876

Conditional on Trump winning will the 2028 election be fairly held?

Jul 27, 5:38 AMDec 30, 6:59 PM

86.86%chance

458472

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2571

389

Will the 2028 United States presidential election be free and fair, according to ≥75% of Manifold poll respondents?

Jan 20, 12:17 AMFeb 1, 5:59 AM

67.92%chance

287420

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1173

133

Conditional on Donald Trump winning the election, will there be a free and fair election in 2028?

Jun 30, 7:11 AMJul 31, 1:59 PM

65%chance

466004

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1363

734

Will the State of Palestine hold a fair presidential election by 2030?

Apr 21, 1:37 PMDec 31, 10:00 PM

38%chance

774600

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1258

973

Will the 2026 US Midterm Elections generally be considered free and fair?

Nov 26, 12:18 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

79.17%chance

403428

OptionVotes

NO

YES

751

549

Will Brazil's 2026 election be free and fair?

Sep 2, 8:54 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

81.86%chance

203323

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2124

471

Free & Fair Presidential Election in Venezuela by EOY 2026?

Jan 6, 6:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.84%chance

162002

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2010

497

Will the next El Salvador presidential election be free and fair?

Apr 18, 8:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.7%chance

15616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1403

713

Will the next presidential election in Venezuela be free and fair?

Jan 17, 12:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.9%chance

9484

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1386

804

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