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Prediction markets for FAL

Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?

Dec 16, 2:35 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

53.08%chance

91101678

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1064

940

Will Bitcoin trade above $400k before it falls below $40k?

Dec 25, 9:23 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

75.72%chance

5340214

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1712

177

If AI wipes out humanity will everyone on Earth fall over dead in the same second?

Feb 27, 7:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.7%chance

14336408

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5405

1263

Will Bitcoin fall below $60k at any point in 2025?

Dec 20, 8:42 AMDec 31, 8:59 PM

9.5%chance

9330852

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4599

454

Will net demand for graphic designers fall by 50% or more by 2025?

Aug 10, 1:31 AMSep 1, 3:59 AM

15.29%chance

9117542

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2670

2113

3. Donald Trump and Elon Musk will have a messy falling-out. This will have meaningful consequences for the world of AI.

Dec 27, 8:14 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

79.49%chance

6116874

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1969

508

QQQ Index falls below $350 at any point in 2025

Dec 10, 5:52 AMDec 31, 12:00 AM

24%chance

911048

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17652

5767

TRUE or FALSE: “Masturbation is good for you”

Dec 14, 8:32 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

73.18%chance

244133

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4444

2227

Will Iran get a nuclear weapon before the Islamic Republic falls?

Feb 1, 4:21 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

32%chance

263773

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1458

686

Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

Aug 8, 5:34 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20.39%chance

51565

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5554

3487

What range will Polymarket token FDV fall in one week after launch?

Jan 29, 1:58 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

2973

OptionProbability

Over $8B

$4B-$6B

$2B-$4B

$6B-$8B

Under $2B

N/A

34

18

13

13

11

11

How will SANDAG prevent the LA/SD rail line from falling into the Pacific?

Jul 24, 12:13 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

00

OptionProbability

San Dieguito Bridge to I-5 (tunnel)

under Crest Canyon (tunnel)

under Camino Del Mar (tunnel)

double-track & reinforce existing route on Del Mar Bluffs (no tunnel)

don't do anything ("no build")

20

20

20

20

20

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