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Prediction markets for Falcons

How many times will SpaceX launch their Falcon 9 / Falcon Heavy in 2025? (Everyday Astronaut 2025 Predictions)

Jan 1, 7:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1412378

OptionProbability

151-170

171+

134 or less

135-150

99

1

0

0

Will SpaceX' Falcon launch at least 600 times?

May 22, 5:47 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

97.8%chance

136341

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7203

539

In what year will SpaceX first launch Starship more times than Falcon 9?

Sep 16, 3:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

145014

OptionProbability

2029

2030

2028

2031

This will not have happened before the end of 2035.

2032

2027

2033

2034

2035

2026

2024

2025

14

14

12

12

10

8

7

7

6

6

2

1

1

Will SpaceX' Falcon launch at least 700 times?

May 22, 5:47 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

96.31%chance

204815

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5289

495

When do we see peak Falcon?

Jan 25, 2:38 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

111904

OptionProbability

2026

2025

2027

2028

2029

2030

Other

2024

51

16

13

6

5

4

4

2

Will the Falcon 9 Family of rockets launch more times in 2026 than in 2025?

Dec 18, 5:51 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

78.8%chance

171411

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1856

580

Will Falcon boosters have a longer run of sucessful landings than 267?

Aug 31, 9:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.39%chance

91330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1190

840

When will a single Falcon 9 booster fly 40 times

Apr 14, 10:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

161289

OptionProbability

Before Jan 1 2030

Before Jan 1 2029

Before Jan 1 2028

Before Jan 1 2027

Never

2030 or later

Before Jan 1 2026

79

78

74

35

21

4

1

How many Falcon 9-family rockets will SpaceX have launched at the time of their retirement?

Aug 28, 2:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

84.15%chance

121113

OptionProbability

NO

YES

2017

563

Which quarterback will start a plurality of games for the Atlanta Falcons in the 2026 NFL season?

Apr 29, 6:14 AMJan 30, 3:59 PM

161033

OptionProbability

Michael Penix Jr.

Other

Kirk Cousins

60

23

16

When will the last SpaceX Falcon 9 / Falcon Heavy launch be?

Jul 18, 4:15 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38.75%chance

13423

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1020

986

Will SpaceX' Falcon launch at least 800 times?

May 22, 5:47 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

85.88%chance

11256

OptionVotes

NO

YES

314

37

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