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Prediction markets for Falcons

In what year will SpaceX first launch Starship more times than Falcon 9?

Sep 16, 3:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

134722

OptionProbability

2029

2028

2030

2031

This will not have happened before the end of 2035.

2027

2032

2033

2026

2034

2035

2024

2025

15

14

14

11

10

8

7

6

5

5

5

1

1

Will SpaceX' Falcon launch at least 600 times?

May 22, 5:47 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

95.66%chance

133341

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4203

633

Will SpaceX' Falcon launch at least 700 times?

May 22, 5:47 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

88.29%chance

201715

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2189

710

When do we see peak Falcon?

Jan 25, 2:38 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

91702

OptionProbability

2026

2025

2027

2028

2029

Other

2030

2024

34

21

17

9

6

6

5

2

How many times will SpaceX launch their Falcon 9 / Heavy in 2025?

Jul 3, 11:51 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

61407

OptionProbability

>100

>120

>140

>130

>150

>160

>170

>180

>200

99

97

92

92

80

50

26

17

8

Will Falcon boosters have a longer run of sucessful landings than 267?

Aug 31, 9:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.39%chance

91330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1190

840

How many Falcon 9-family rockets will SpaceX have launched at the time of their retirement?

Aug 28, 2:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.35%chance

12963

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1867

593

Which quarterback will start a plurality of games for the Atlanta Falcons in the 2026 NFL season?

Apr 29, 6:14 AMJan 30, 3:59 PM

15624

OptionProbability

Michael Penix Jr.

Other

Kirk Cousins

82

10

8

Will the Falcon 9 Family of rockets launch more times in 2026 than in 2025?

Dec 18, 5:51 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

56.17%chance

17603

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1047

950

When will the last SpaceX Falcon 9 / Falcon Heavy launch be?

Jul 18, 4:15 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

35.95%chance

13366

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1096

941

How often will Starship have launched by the time of Falcon 9's retirement?

Sep 11, 11:18 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

30.22%chance

11256

OptionProbability

NO

YES

400

120

Will a Falcon 9 launch from the Guiana Space Centre before 2030?

Feb 1, 8:12 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

16.7%chance

6207

OptionVotes

YES

NO

280

102

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