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Prediction markets for FARA

Will Nigel Farage lead the Reform UK party into the next General Election?

Jan 5, 3:07 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

64%chance

4511708

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1347

614

Will Nigel Farage become leader of the Conservative Party by 2027?

Oct 27, 2:21 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

2%chance

296876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5697

732

Nigel Farage becomes UK Prime Minister before 2035?

May 3, 7:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.37%chance

263005

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1715

583

Nigel Farage out as Reform UK Leader before 1st March 2027?

Sep 4, 8:14 AMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

33.49%chance

191954

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1049

893

Who will be the next permanent leader of Reform UK (after Nigel Farage)?

Mar 11, 7:38 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

151650

OptionProbability

Other

Robert Jenrick

Suella Braverman

Richard Tice

Party ceases to exist

Danny Kruger

Lee Anderson

Zia Yusuf

James McMurdock

Rupert Lowe

27

21

17

7

6

6

5

5

3

2

If Nigel Farage wins the Clacton by-election, will he be recalled anyway?

Jul 7, 2:17 PMJul 7, 2:05 PM

58.62%chance

171587

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1190

840

Will Nigel Farage face a second Clacton byelection in 2026?

Jul 31, 12:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

271236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

180

68

Does there exist at least 1 pair of humans which can telepathically communicate through a faraday cage?

Mar 27, 6:57 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

6.98%chance

8890

OptionVotes

YES

NO

434

87

Will Nigel Farage be alive for the next UK general election?

Jun 1, 2:17 AMAug 16, 2:10 AM

93.54%chance

19719

OptionVotes

NO

YES

381

26

Will a party Nigel Farage is a member of win the next UK General Election?

Feb 9, 3:25 AMAug 15, 10:59 PM

33%chance

21649

OptionVotes

YES

NO

142

70

Will Nigel Farage and Rupert Lowe manage to pull off a 'Unite the Right'?

Aug 26, 1:56 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

59.1%chance

4255

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

83

How long before Jackson Hinkle is charged for violating FARA?

Jun 21, 4:50 PMDec 31, 5:48 PM

227

OptionProbability

2028

2025

2026

2027

49

17

17

17

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