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Prediction markets for FARM

Will there be a year, before 2040, in which total AI suffering outweighs total 2022 farmed animal suffering?

Mar 16, 11:33 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

21.15%chance

8011179

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2863

1138

In 2068, will animal farming will be less than 10% of its size as of 2023?

Mar 25, 3:08 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

41.22%chance

627484

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1304

683

Will there be a year, before 2040, in which net AI suffering outweighs net 2022 farmed animal suffering?

Mar 17, 12:03 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

40.18%chance

151754

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1346

652

Will popular opinion in the U.S. be that factory farming is a moral atrocity by end of 2050?

Jan 10, 6:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

70.45%chance

381457

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1231

871

Will there be a year, before 2030, in which net AI suffering outweighs net 2022 farmed animal suffering?

Mar 17, 12:01 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

32.08%chance

121034

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1255

816

Will popular opinion in the U.S. be that factory farming is a moral atrocity by end of 2040?

Jan 10, 6:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.37%chance

26576

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1147

821

Will popular opinion in the U.S. be that factory farming is a moral atrocity by end of 2075?

Jan 10, 6:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

74.67%chance

25505

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1154

929

If biological humans still exist in 2100, the majority of them will regard factory farming as a great evil of the past

Jan 29, 4:38 AMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

68.28%chance

14348

OptionVotes

YES

NO

991

954

Will the first Superintelligence try to end the practice of factory farming (including if only for mammals)?

Aug 18, 10:58 PMAug 18, 10:57 PM

59.93%chance

7280

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1223

818

Will the next pandemic be primarily caused or significantly spread by factory farming?

Feb 19, 12:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

35%chance

13213

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

941

Will the first Super Intelligence try to end the practice of factory farming (for any species) ?

Aug 18, 10:56 PMAug 18, 10:56 PM

51.44%chance

392

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1079

1022

When will a humanoid robot first be used as farm labor?

Nov 11, 5:41 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

Other

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

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