Fars News

Will Manifold agree that Dwarkesh's upcoming guest is "by far [his] biggest yet"? (Resolves to poll)

Aug 22, 4:55 PMAug 20, 6:59 AM

29.27%chance

8412046

OptionVotes

YES

776

131

Impeach the Judge who blocked DOGE from accessing U.S. Treasury records? How far will this go?

Feb 9, 9:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

203245

OptionProbability

Initiation and Investigation: A member or committee of the House of Representatives begins impeachment proceedings. The House Judiciary Committee investigates the allegations of misconduct

Charges: If the committee finds sufficient evidence, it acts as a prosecutor and brings charges against the judge.

The U.S. Court of Appeals or the Supreme Court overturns Judge Engelmayer's ruling to block Executive cabinet and staffers from accessing U.S. Treasury records, and no impeachment proceedings are initiated by May 9, 2025.

House Votes YES to Impeach: The entire House of Representatives votes on the impeachment. A simple majority is required to impeach the judge.

Senate Trial and Removal: If impeached, the case is referred to the Senate for a trial. A two-thirds majority vote in the Senate is required to convict and remove the judge from office.

100

If a Macron-backed candidate fails to be elected president in 2027, will a far-right candidate win?

Mar 27, 1:43 PMJul 1, 2:59 AM

66.11%chance

252643

OptionVotes

YES

978

974

Will German far-right party AfD be banned by the German government?

Sep 3, 8:09 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

15%chance

242275

OptionVotes

YES

1020

459

Will far-UVC or a successor technology be ubiquitous by 2033?

Sep 29, 1:23 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

20.45%chance

422271

OptionVotes

YES

1191

922

Will Far-UVC Become a Partisan Issue in the US by 2027?

Mar 14, 9:24 AMDec 31, 2:59 PM

14.66%chance

91692

OptionVotes

YES

2412

415

Will a precolonial city be found in the Amazon rainforest that is larger than any city found there thus far?

Sep 15, 7:14 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

31.97%chance

201084

OptionVotes

YES

1459

686

Will any government in the US/EU/UK/Canada/Australia mandate installing far-UVC lamps in any public space before 2030?

Mar 6, 3:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

70.34%chance

15405

OptionVotes

YES

1105

942

Will Proud Boys, Three Percenters, or members of similar far-right groups kill at least 10 people in the US in 2025?

Nov 7, 9:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

38%chance

10330

OptionVotes

YES

1277

783

Will ACGIH raise the threshold limit values of the far-UVC (200-230 nm) range again before 2026?

Feb 24, 9:55 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27.02%chance

3146

OptionVotes

YES

165

AI do Ambiguous Thing by Far off Time

Jun 10, 3:28 PMApr 10, 3:24 PM

59.63%chance

11126

OptionVotes

YES

122

Will Brazil Secure 10 or More FIFA World Cup Titles In Total (5 So Far) Before 2110?

Sep 19, 11:59 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

52.44%chance

224

OptionVotes

YES

105

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Will Manifold agree that Dwarkesh's upcoming guest is "by far [his] biggest yet"? (Resolves to poll)

Impeach the Judge who blocked DOGE from accessing U.S. Treasury records? How far will this go?

If a Macron-backed candidate fails to be elected president in 2027, will a far-right candidate win?

Will German far-right party AfD be banned by the German government?

Will far-UVC or a successor technology be ubiquitous by 2033?

Will Far-UVC Become a Partisan Issue in the US by 2027?

Will a precolonial city be found in the Amazon rainforest that is larger than any city found there thus far?

Will any government in the US/EU/UK/Canada/Australia mandate installing far-UVC lamps in any public space before 2030?

Will Proud Boys, Three Percenters, or members of similar far-right groups kill at least 10 people in the US in 2025?

Will ACGIH raise the threshold limit values of the far-UVC (200-230 nm) range again before 2026?

AI do Ambiguous Thing by Far off Time

Will Brazil Secure 10 or More FIFA World Cup Titles In Total (5 So Far) Before 2110?

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