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Prediction markets for FAS

Will fast take-off happen this year?

Jan 2, 1:36 PMJan 1, 10:59 AM

1.19%chance

5899393

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9131

110

When will an AI be able to speedrun a popular video game faster than the human WR?

May 27, 5:02 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

1011851

OptionProbability

2026

2030 or later

2027

2025

2028

2029

2024

20

20

17

15

13

13

1

By 2030, Humanoid Robots can Fold laundry as well and as fast as the median human clothing store employee.

Jan 5, 11:09 AMJan 12, 8:09 AM

67.57%chance

748052

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

933

Is faster-than-light travel physically possible?

Mar 4, 2:16 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

19.11%chance

896285

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1053

655

Will fast takeoff (less than 72 hours from AGI to ASI) occur (before 2050)?

May 17, 5:25 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18.69%chance

405915

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2086

479

Will Extropic AI build thermodynamic computing hardware that runs an AI model faster/cheaper than GPU by 2030?

Mar 30, 11:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.73%chance

151275

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1178

545

Will any human-made object go faster than 1% of the speed of light before 2060?

Mar 1, 3:41 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55.09%chance

321009

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1075

928

Will an American national fast food chain use lab-grown/cultured meat in a product by 2030?

Jan 16, 11:17 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.84%chance

32694

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1316

881

Will average wages rise faster than average house prices in the UK before the next general election?

Jul 14, 11:42 AMAug 25, 10:59 PM

40.75%chance

11595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1206

829

Will any of the following Western countries' legislatures be majority controlled by explicitly fascist or communist political parties before 2030?

Feb 8, 10:43 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.86%chance

18334

OptionVotes

NO

YES

999

980

Will Fast Retailing share price drop below 35,000 JPY by EOY?

Jun 9, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37%chance

2305

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1305

766

Would over 20% of global fashion revenue come from virtual cosmetics by 2030?

Jun 29, 10:38 PMJan 7, 5:59 AM

43.13%chance

3150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1148

871

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