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OptionProbability
US ground troops, including special operations forces, physically enter Iranian territory by May 1, 2026
US military casualties exceed 100 by May 1, 2026
Mojtaba Khamenei named Supreme Leader by March 31, 2026
Iran inflicts widespread damage on US tech firm (e.g. Amazon, Microsoft) outposts or data centers in the Middle East by May 1, 2026
At least one instance of reported military activity (strike, missile launch, drone attack, or clash) involving US, Israeli, or Iranian forces or proxies occurs each day of March 2026 (UTC), per Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or ISW.
Iran (directly or via proxies) inflicts widespread damage (to ≥3 major facilities causing ≥5% production/export disruption) on energy infrastructure in ≥1 Gulf Cooperation Council state by June 30, 2026.
US or Israel strikes an Iranian power plant by May 1, 2026 (UTC)
At least one instance of reported military activity (strike, missile launch, drone attack, or clash) involving US, Israeli, or Iranian forces or proxies occurs each day of April 2026 (UTC), per Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or ISW.
Iran charges tolls on at least one ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz after the first announcement of a US-Iran ceasefire, as reported by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet, by December 31, 2026 (UTC).
Iranian government announces willingness to engage in talks with the US to end the war by April 30, 2026 (UTC), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.
Mojtaba Khamenei is confirmed dead by the Islamic Republic of Iran in 2026
Iran takes at least one non-Iranian citizen hostage, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet before January 1, 2027
Brent crude closes above $100/bbl on more calendar days than below from March 1, 2026 through December 31, 2026
Iran kinetically strikes the territory of any NATO member other than the US, excluding military bases, after March 22, 2026, 8:00 AM EDT by December 31, 2026, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.
Mojtaba Khamenei dies by December 31, 2026
Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium (approx. 440kg at 60% or higher purity) is reported missing by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, IAEA, or equivalent major international outlet by June 30, 2026
FBI or DHS publicly attributes a terrorist attack on U.S. soil (50 states + DC + territories) causing 10+ deaths or equivalent major damage to Iran or Iran-backed groups (IRGC, Hezbollah, Houthis) by December 31, 2026
Iran (directly or via proxies) inflicts widespread damage (to ≥3 major desalination plants causing ≥5% national water supply disruption) on desalination infrastructure in Israel or ≥1 GCC state by December 31, 2026
A biological, chemical, or radiological weapon (excluding nuclear bombs) is used by US forces or allies, Iranian forces, or their proxies by December 31, 2026, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.
The US-Iran war is ongoing as of December 31, 2026
US launches a ground operation to seize highly enriched uranium from Fordow or another underground Iranian nuclear site before January 1, 2027, but fails to seize or destroy Iran's entire HEU stockpile per IAEA reports.
US military casualties exceed 500 by December 31, 2026
Iran launches a drone attack on U.S. soil (50 states + DC + territories) by December 31, 2026
Reza Pahlavi is confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet to have entered Iran by December 31, 2026
US national average regular gasoline price exceeds $5/gallon by June 1, 2026
Saudi Arabia, Iraq, or Turkey deploys combat troops or conducts airstrikes against Iranian forces by June 1, 2026
Iranian regime (Islamic Republic government) collapses by July 1, 2026, via significant security force defections or opposition control of Tehran.
More than 100 US citizens die in a single attack by Iran or its proxies (excluding lone wolves without direct support), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet, by December 31, 2026
The US administration (via DOJ indictment or equivalent formal charge) indicts a US-based journalist or news organization with treason explicitly citing their coverage of the US-Iran war by July 1, 2026
US Congress passes a formal declaration of war on Iran or its proxies before January 1, 2027, reported by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major outlet.
US or Israel strikes an Iranian nuclear power plant causing a radioactive leak by June 30, 2026 (UTC), confirmed by IAEA, Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.
Iran produces a functional nuclear weapon using primarily indigenous capabilities before January 1, 2027
US activates military draft by December 31, 2026
The FCC revokes a US broadcast station's license explicitly citing its coverage of the US-Iran war by July 1, 2026
US or Israel detonates a nuclear weapon targeting Iran in 2026
Iran or its proxies detonate a nuclear weapon targeting the US or Israel in 2026, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.
Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz reaches at least 80% of pre-conflict (Jan-Feb 2026) average daily levels by April 15, 2026 (UTC), per MarineTraffic, Reuters, or equivalent AIS data.
Brent crude's official daily settlement price exceeds $200/bbl before April 1, 2026
Brent crude stays above $100/bbl through December 31, 2026
US military fatalities exceed 100 by May 1, 2026
US attacks Kharg Island's oil terminals by March 31, 2026 (UTC)
US ground troops are present on Kharg Island by April 30, 2026 (UTC)
Donald Trump publicly announces the cessation of US military operations against Iran by April 30, 2026 (UTC), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.
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100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
45
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22
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17
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0
0
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0
OptionProbability
Lee Harvey Oswald (acting alone)
CIA
Other US government agency or official
Mafia
Other
Cuban government
Cuban exiles (anti-Castro)
KGB / Soviets
LBJ
US military
FBI
Other US leftwing group
Other US rightwing group
US company
Foreign company
Mossad / Israeli government
Other foreign government
Aliens / Illuminati / lizard people
85
8
2
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
call someone retarded through text or speech
Take control of the army National Guard of a state (not just announcement)
A literal red line on the ground/floor
complete 50% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
Initiates low intensity conflict with Venezuela
Weaponize Federal Procurement: Launch a DOJ criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell’s $2.5B renovation probity, while simultaneously accepting $400M in private corporate donations for the White House 'State Ballroom'.
repeal or reform the dietary guidelines
request and successfully redraw 1 or more state districts
explicitly conditions FEMA aid to a blue state on unrelated ideological issue
complete 66% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
Stays alive
pass 500 or more executive orders
intervenes to stop a federal criminal investigation into a high ranking republican
new blockade of a country
Eliminate the two-person train crew safety regulations (DoT request from Project 2025)
have any governmental officials visit Taiwan formally or informally
forcibly shuts down a windmill farm power plant or revokes permits etc
declare war and send troops to aggressively enter any new country
request and successfully redraw 2 or more state districts
put his name on a ship in the navy
call for twitter / x to ban account of a democrat politician
order the arrest of a governor by name even if it does not happen
refuse to accept results of 2026 midterms in at least one state
complete 75% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
request and successfully redraw 3 or more state districts
sells 100 square miles or more of federal property to private owners or other countries
File lawsuit against a congressperson
Revoke ten or more citizenships
Actually privatizes at least part of the USPO
Pardons an officer for a crime committed on the job enforcing immigration laws
Says 6 7 (or variant)
Dep
Remove tax exempt status from one or more universities
Trump will pardon those involved before the sentencing - medical fraud schemes
ten or more protestors killed during term
Causes Tina Peters' early release
resume buying oil from Russia
Privatize the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program
sends USA troops to enter Mexico without permission
Mandate teaching Arabic numerals in East (American) Samoan schools
postpones or cancels 2026 senate elections in at least one state
Pardon himself
closes 1 or more national parks (63 as of question creation)
have the DOJ "classify educators and public librarians" who discuss "transgender ideology" with minors as "sex offenders." as per project 2025
Raise the retirement age for social security
Accept a gift of an airplane to *himself personally* (not a gift to the US government)
Nominate a family member to high office
Appoint a crony, such as Bondi, or his personal lawyers, to SCOTUS
have FBI DOJ or other agency charge a congressperson with treason
Orders an agency under federal control to arrest a congressperson
Closes or makes radical ideological changes to The National Museum of African American History and Culture
get ukraine to agree to give up ALL of the donbas AND crimea to russia
Kidnap *another* head of state (after Maduro)
Airstrikes or bombs Mexican territory (drone artillery etc count)
Call for the end of the Senate
Weaken regulations on baby formula as per project 2025
Sunset the Office of Accountability and Whistleblower Protection (Veteran Affairs)
Gets angry with Putin and renews (also indirect) nuclear threat.
Pardons a private citizen for an act in opposition to an anti-trump protest
Raise contribution limits (FEC)
add a new federal holiday in his honor
Bans / restricts guns for trans people (or tries to)
have a journalist arrested
Order the arrest of a sitting member of congress
Have USA test a nuclear bomb anywhere
call someone a pedophile explicitely by name through text or speech
remove a major non NATO ally from the current list
Pardon a convicted pedophile
repeal the Federal Sugar program (USDA) as suggested by project 2025
End congressional review of arms transfers to foreign countries (DoD)
host putin at mar a lago
Pardons someone acting as a private citizen for an act in support of immigration enforcement (not an on duty officer)
Salute Putin
Enforce the Comstock Act at least once
federalize a city or area currently under control of another state (not DC)
force a census to happen when it normally wouldnt
complete 90% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
repeal the federal mandate to label genetically engineered food (as per project 2025)
Eliminate ACA's requirement to cover the morning after pill
Lessen child labor regulations to allow "teenage workers" to work "inherently dangerous jobs". (DoL)
issue circulation coin or bill with his image or pass laws to do that in the near future
classify "transgender ideology" as "domestic terrorism," as per The Daily Wire
department of defense renamed to Dept of war
Get rid of Noaa.
Pardon ghislaine maxwell
Implement a federal abortion ban
Does Nazi / Roman salute with same passion as Elon's gesture
force a former president to testify before Congress
Deports at least one athlete during the 2026 FIFA World Cup
appoint a family member to lead any federal agency
Impose time-limits on how long low-income people can receive Medicaid in their lifetime
Pardon p diddy
stops all sanctions on Russia
enact special taxes or tariffs on a subset of states he does not like
Military against drug cartells on venezuelas ground
Deploy US troops into any of 83 Federal subjects of Russian Federation (or announce that)
Withdraw from NATO
Eliminate the Federal Reserve mission of full employment
Call for the banning of HRT (hormone replacement therapy)
revoke broadcasting licenses of a media company he does not like
Deports at least one Olympic athlete during the 2028 Summer Olympics
Implement a federal age of consent
Abolish the Federal Reserve and move to a "free banking" system
Ban construction of new windmills in the USA for power generation
Remove all federal funding for SNAP/food stamps
Gets influence on Gaza strip to make investment deals with real estate or buys land.
Uses the US military or National Guard to prevent at least one legal voter from casting a ballot during 2028 election
All 10 of the 10 largest protests in the USA happen under trump
Eliminate the DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis
repeal Obamacare
pardon derek chauvin
admin stops reccomending fluorinated water entirely
Add a citizenship question to the census
confiscate 1 million or more from the Democratic party itself
confiscate 1 million or more from an individual Congress person
debank a congressperson governor or mayor
Enact price controls on groceries
Four or more protestors (or bystanders) killed by national guard
announce that a part of Canada belongs to the USA
expand the supreme Court and appoint someone new
Prohibit use of aborted fetal cells in research for new medical applications as per project 2025
Eliminate the U.S. Trade and Development Agency
Threatening to attack a US defence pact ally (e.g. NATO, Rio Pact etc.) with nuclear weapons
actually disinter bodies from another country
Call for the end of child marriage
Four or more protestors/bystanders killed by national guard/military in one day
Repeal of the Antiquities Act of 1906
change it so that presidents can serve 3 or more terms again
orders arrests of any Biden family member
delete Juneteenth as a federal holiday
federally mandate ten commandments or Bible in classrooms
Prosecute someone for flag burning
His name is on the ballot for the 2028 Republican primaries in any state/territory
Announce he’s running for a third term
cause Fox, nbc CNN MSNBC or another main news channel to shut down
Call for the death penalty of any former president by name
all time high unemployment reached
Require all schools that receive federal funding to give students the military entrance test.
Pass a federal "Parents' Bill of Rights" with regard to Education
Remove all unions in the Dept. of Homeland Security
Prevent the VA from covering abortion services
Replace his Vice President
Call for the default of the United States sovereign debt
Causes derek chauvin's early release
declare he has officially undone a past presidential pardon
Eliminate the Office of Children’s Health Protection
cancel the 2028 election / it doesnt happen for any reason
Calls himself a dictator or unambiguous synonym (without equivocating)
Attack a NATO ally.
Eliminate the Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assistance (EPA)
expand the borders of the usa
remove tax exempt from only certain religions
have a supreme court justice impeached and/or removed
threaten to disinter bodies from another country
Mandate time-and-a-half compensation on a Sabbath (project 2025 request)
fauci in jail at least one week
take control of a part of ukraine
add a new state
pardon george santos
take state ownership in an airline
Repeal the Global Change Research Act of 1990
ban trans people from holding federal offices
changes the logo or name of a previously offensive sport team (pressures until they actually do it)
Annex any part of Mexico
ends black history month
Eliminate the DOE Loan Program
Delist the grizzly bear AND gray wolf from the Endangered Species Act
take control of a part of greenland
New restrictions on SSRIs (including a ban)
Sides with Putin because he has compromising information against Trump regarding the Epstein files.
Call for the end of gay marriage
Fully or partially privatize Social Security
Dissolve/shut down/abolish NASA
Postpone the elections due to emergency
make statements that are negative about labubu
Wind down and privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
Call for the assassination of the leader of an allied nation
Call for the abolition of the voting rights act or the 15th amendment
breaks ground on a trump building in Gaza
Detonates a nuclear weapon as an act of war
fully nationalize an airline
stop California from hosting the Olympics
Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2028 Summer Olympics
ban all new incoming students from china and/or india
Eliminate all administrative proceedings within the SEC
change or add a face on Mount Rushmore
change the borders of a state
breaks ground on a trump building in Russia
repeal an amendment
declares a white history month
Call for the end of the House of Reps
give sell or otherwise transfer a part of Alaska to Russia
enter a mutual defense partnership with russia or north korea
After the ballroom he starts building a palace for the future Trump-Monarchy
Call for the end of interracial marriage
Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2026 FIFA World Cup
bans anime
Wearing a white dress after labor day
Dept of defense renamed to dept of peace
bans 6 7
Kidnap the Pope
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95
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3
3
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2
2
2
2
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1075
931
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1857
539
OptionProbability
John Bolton – Former National Security Advisor under President Trump
John Brennan – Former Director of the CIA under President Obama, currently a Senior National Security and Intelligence Analyst at NBC and MSNBC
James Comey – Former FBI Director
James Clapper – Former Director of National Intelligence under President Obama, currently a National Security Analyst at CNN
John Carlin – Acting Deputy Attorney General, former head of National Security Division at DoJ during the Russia Gate investigation by FBI
Hillary Clinton – Former Democrat Party Nominee for President and Former Secretary of State under President Obama
Merrick Garland – Attorney General under President Biden
Loretta Lynch – Former Attorney General under President Obama
Susan Rice – Former National Security Advisor under President Obama, currently Director of the Domestic Policy Council under President Biden
Alexander Vindman – Former Director for European Affairs on the NSC under President Trump
Kamala Harris – Vice President of the United States
Andrew McCabe – Former Deputy Director of the FBI under President Trump
Fiona Hill – Former NSC staffer who worked with Vindman and Ciaramella
John Podesta – Former Counselor to President Obama
Lisa Page – Former Legal Counsel for Deputy Director of the FBI Andrew McCabe and currently a National Security and Legal Analyst at NBC and MSNBC
Eric Holder – Former Attorney General under President Obama and current Senior Counsel at Covington law firm
Stephen Boyd – Former head of Legislative Affairs at DoJ under Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein
Sally Yates – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Obama and briefly the Acting Attorney General under President Trump
Evelyn Farkas – Former DoD official under President Obama
Lloyd Austin – Secretary of Defense under President Biden
Mark Milley – Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
Jake Sullivan – National Security Advisor under President Biden
Christopher Wray – Director of the FBI under President Trump and President Biden, former partner at King & Spalding
James Baker – Former General Counsel for the FBI, currently a member of the Brookings Institute, former Deputy General Counsel at Twitter
Eric Ciaramella – Former NSC staffer within the Obama and Trump administrations
Mark Esper – Former Secretary of Defense under President Trump
Lisa Monaco – Deputy Attorney General of the United States
Pat Philbin – Former Deputy White House Counsel under President Trump
Peter Strzok – Former Deputy Assistant Director of the FBI's Counterintelligence Division
Michael Sussmann – Former legal representative for the Democratic National Committee and former partner at Perkins Coie law firm
Robert Hur – Special Counsel to investigate Biden and former PADAG under Rosenstein
Andrew Weissman – Former Deputy under Special Counsel Mueller
Michael Atkinson – Former Intelligence Community Inspector General
Pat Cipollone – Former White House Counsel under President Trump
Timothy Thibault – Former Assistant Special Agent at the FBI's Washington Field Office
Joe Biden – President of the United States
Cassidy Hutchinson – Aide to Mark Meadows
Brian Auten – Supervisory Intelligence Analyst within the FBI
Elizabeth Dibble – Former Deputy Chief of Mission at the US Embassy in London
Sarah Isgur Flores – Former Head of Communications at DoJ for AG Sessions
Stephanie Grisham – Former Press Secretary for President Trump and Chief of Staff for Melania Trump
Gina Haspel – Former Director of the CIA under President Trump and current advisor at King & Spalding law firm
Curtis Heide – FBI Agent
Nina Jankowicz – Former Executive Director of the Disinformation Governance Board in the Biden administration
Lois Lerner – Former Director of the IRS under President Obama
Charles Kupperman – Former Deputy National Security Advisor under President Trump
Kenneth Mackenzie – Retired US Marine Corps General and former Commander of the United States Central Command
Ryan McCarthy – Former Secretary of the Army under President Trump
Mary McCord – Former Acting Assistant Attorney General for National Security at the DoJ and currently the Executive Director for the Georgetown Law Institute for Constitutional Advocacy and Protection
Denis McDonough – Former Chief of Staff for President Obama and currently Secretary of Veterans Affairs
Sally Moyer – Former Supervisory Attorney at the FBI and currently Legal Counsel at Cloudflare
Bruce Ohr – Former Associate Deputy Attorney General
Samantha Power – Former Ambassador to the United Nations under President Obama, currently Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development
Bill Priestap – Former Assistant Director for the FBI Counterintelligence Division
Rod Rosenstein – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Trump and current partner at King & Spalding law firm
Miles Taylor – Former DHS official under President Trump, aka "Anonymous"
Alyssa Farah – Former Director of Strategic Communications under President Trump
Nellie Ohr – Former CIA Employee and Independent Contractor for Fusion GPS
Bill Barr – Former Attorney General under President Trump
Robert Mueller – Former Director of the FBI and Special Counsel
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79
76
68
68
66
66
66
58
57
56
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51
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41
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31
31
31
27
27
24
0
OptionVotes
NO
YES
240
105
OptionProbability
YES
NO
402
321
OptionVotes
YES
NO
733
131
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1111
900
OptionProbability
NO
YES
177
128
OptionVotes
NO
YES
209
155
