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Prediction markets for FDA
[ACX 2026] Will the FDA approve a psilocybin treatment during 2026?
Jan 6, 11:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
16.33%chance
3322452
OptionVotes
6986
4633
The FDA will approve an AI developed cure before the end of the decade (<2030) for a previously incurable major illness.
Dec 21, 5:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
26.39%chance
11310856
OptionVotes
3127
765
OptionVotes
4316
1934
FDA approves YCT-529 male birth control pill before 2035?
Jul 1, 5:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
24%chance
68682
OptionVotes
17795
5620
Will a vaccine for HIV be approved by the FDA by 2030?
Jan 21, 1:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
52.33%chance
527403
OptionVotes
1207
664
Will Ozempic / semaglutide be FDA-approved for Alzheimer's before 2030?
Dec 8, 8:59 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
26.14%chance
393720
OptionVotes
4441
830
Will the FDA conditionally approve a drug to extend lifespan or healthspan in dogs before January 1, 2028?
Oct 1, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
31.13%chance
31124
OptionVotes
2535
1797
Hassabis's Isomorphic Labs will get a drug to FDA stage 3 or better by mid 2031
Jan 23, 6:16 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM
44%chance
9898
OptionVotes
1128
886
Will the FDA publicly accept a multi-condition geroscience endpoint as sufficient to establish efficacy before 2036?
Jul 14, 11:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
57.59%chance
7575
OptionVotes
6240
5801
By 2035, will the FDA approve a drug that slows the yearly progression of Alzheimer's disease by at least 50%?
Jan 14, 10:58 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
57.12%chance
8407
OptionVotes
1154
866
Will the FDA approve any drug for an aging indication in humans before January 1, 2035?
Oct 1, 4:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
12.01%chance
3222
OptionVotes
2247
2040
Will the FDA publicly accept a multi-condition geroscience endpoint as sufficient to establish efficacy before 2031?
Jul 14, 11:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
52.44%chance
150
OptionVotes
1050
952