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Prediction markets for Fed Funds

Fed decision in December?

Sep 4, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2014129

OptionProbability

Increase

No change

Decrease

75

24

1

Fed decision in January

Sep 14, 7:25 PMJan 27, 7:00 PM

109543

OptionProbability

No change

Increase (25 bps or more)

Decrease (25 bps or more)

75

22

3

Fed decision in March

Oct 2, 3:10 PMMar 17, 6:00 PM

94890

OptionProbability

No change

Increase (25 bps or more)

Decrease (25 bps or more)

54

41

5

Will Jerome Powells Sucessor cut federal interest rates to 1% or lower?

Jan 12, 1:55 AMMay 15, 11:59 PM

6.51%chance

194040

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3792

264

Interest rates above 10% before 2030?

Jul 22, 3:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.59%chance

102869

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1851

540

Will the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates at least 3 times before December 31, 2026?

Mar 18, 4:25 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

1%chance

151229

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

10

Will the US Fed Funds rate in 10 years be higher than 4%?

May 24, 5:51 AMMay 24, 6:59 AM

72%chance

15941

OptionVotes

NO

YES

315

67

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