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Prediction markets for Fed Funds

Fed decision in October?

Sep 2, 3:16 PMOct 28, 6:00 PM

124900

OptionProbability

Increase (25 bps or more)

No change

Decrease (25 bps or more)

53

45

2

Fed decision in December?

Sep 4, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

124625

OptionProbability

Increase

No change

Decrease

66

30

4

Will Jerome Powells Sucessor cut federal interest rates to 1% or lower?

Jan 12, 1:55 AMMay 15, 11:59 PM

9.68%chance

183276

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3056

327

Interest rates above 10% before 2030?

Jul 22, 3:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.71%chance

102663

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1957

511

Fed decision in January

Sep 14, 7:25 PMJan 27, 7:00 PM

51297

OptionProbability

No change

Increase (25 bps or more)

Decrease (25 bps or more)

57

33

10

Will the Fed cut rates by 25 bps at its next meeting?

Aug 4, 3:21 AMSep 23, 11:59 PM

1%chance

181264

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

10

Will the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates at least 3 times before December 31, 2026?

Mar 18, 4:25 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

1%chance

151229

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

10

Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the Oct. 28, 2026 FOMC meeting?

Jun 18, 12:01 PMOct 28, 6:25 PM

1%chance

81045

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1121

14

Will the US Fed Funds rate in 10 years be higher than 4%?

May 24, 5:51 AMMay 24, 6:59 AM

68%chance

15920

OptionVotes

NO

YES

294

76

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