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Prediction markets for Fed Funds

Will the fed funds rate be below 4% at anytime by the end of 2026?

Oct 17, 11:18 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

99.28%chance

3466916

OptionVotes

NO

YES

17326

333

Will Fed (Kevin Warsh) cut interest rates by July 2026?

Jun 9, 9:55 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

1.54%chance

259791

OptionVotes

YES

NO

800

13

Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates in 2026?

Mar 5, 4:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58%chance

409386

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1175

851

Federal Reserve FOMC decision in July 2026? [2k added subsidy]

Jun 23, 3:43 PMJul 30, 11:59 PM

42010

OptionProbability

No change

25 bps increase

25 bps decrease

50 bps increase

68

21

6

5

Will Jerome Powells Sucessor cut federal interest rates to 1% or lower?

Jan 12, 1:55 AMMay 15, 11:59 PM

27.72%chance

161851

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1615

620

Will the US Fed Funds rate in 10 years be higher than 4%?

May 24, 5:51 AMMay 24, 6:59 AM

62.23%chance

13787

OptionVotes

NO

YES

269

90

Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the July 29, 2026 FOMC meeting?

Jun 18, 12:02 AMJul 29, 6:25 PM

1.92%chance

7679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

779

19

Will the Fed cut the federal funds rate at its July 2026 FOMC meeting?

Jun 14, 12:30 PMJul 30, 11:59 PM

2.27%chance

6671

OptionVotes

YES

NO

702

58

Will the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates at least 3 times before December 31, 2026?

Mar 18, 4:25 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

3.32%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

540

19

With the new peace talks with Iran, will interest rate rates lower in the next eight weeks?

Jun 19, 5:53 PMAug 14, 5:52 PM

4%chance

9422

OptionVotes

YES

NO

490

20

Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the Sept. 16, 2026 FOMC meeting?

Jun 17, 10:04 PMSep 16, 6:25 PM

10.4%chance

4193

OptionVotes

YES

NO

293

42

Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the Oct. 28, 2026 FOMC meeting?

Jun 18, 12:01 PMOct 28, 6:25 PM

22.13%chance

479

OptionVotes

YES

NO

179

62

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