Federal Appeals Court News

How many ICE agents will be convicted for crimes committed during the Trump administration?

Jan 22, 3:15 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

334139

OptionProbability

Other

100-199

200-299

50-99

25-49

0-2

3-9

10-24

Will Texas's 2025 redistricting map be used in the 2026 midterms?

Nov 18, 9:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

95.18%chance

214118

OptionVotes

YES

4445

225

How much time will Jair Bolsonaro spend in jail (not house arrest) by Dec 31, 2031?

Sep 12, 1:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

113876

OptionProbability

1+ days

30+ days

365+ days

180+ days

730+ days

1825+ days

0 days

100

Prop bets: What will prediction markets do to society (add your own)

Feb 17, 6:23 PMDec 31, 6:20 PM

11988

OptionProbability

Create new forms of gambling addiction and financial harm

Provide voting public with better information on candidates chances in elections

Lead to manipulation and misinformation through coordinated betting

Increase polarization by incentivizing extreme predictions

Provide public with better information about impact of policies and new legislation

Bring Jeffrey epstein back to life

Make me the President of USA

Will an animal in the US be recognized as a person by US courts before 2030?

Sep 11, 9:45 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.56%chance

12373

OptionVotes

YES

1075

955

Letitia James convicted before 2029?

Oct 9, 10:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.09%chance

6275

OptionVotes

YES

362

2026 Gambling Loss Tax Rules Prop Bets

Jul 14, 2:29 PMApr 15, 10:59 PM

4251

OptionProbability

Gambling losses deduction remains limited to 90% as laid out in OBBB

Congress explicitly intervenes to restore 100% deduction (example Rep Titus FAIR BET act enacted)

Mainstream pro gamblers move primarily to prediction markets for tax treatment

Administrative action classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Court ruling classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Legislation classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Major sports book restructures as a prediction market before 2026-01-01

Major sports book goes bankrupt because of OBBB by 2027-01-01

Will DACA be struck down by the US judicial system?

Sep 14, 4:17 PMDec 1, 7:59 AM

44.51%chance

13202

OptionVotes

YES

214

202

Trump vs the media: Which lawsuits will succeed?

Dec 27, 1:11 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

7143

OptionProbability

CBS case, over 60 Minutes Harris interview

Trump defamation suit against NYT (filed September 2025)

Des Moines Register case, over Ann Selzer poll

Simon & Schuster case, over Bob Woodward book

100

Will Michele Spagnuolo be convicted

May 28, 1:27 PMMay 1, 1:22 PM

75.26%chance

689

OptionVotes

YES

174

California's AB-1127 ("Glock ban") struck down before 2030?

Oct 14, 8:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.95%chance

377

OptionVotes

YES

173

Circuit-level ruling on a bodily-injury microplastics case (as opposed to consumer protection / greenwashing) by EOY2028

Apr 24, 7:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.5%chance

OptionVotes

YES

101

Federal Appeals Court News

Prediction markets for Federal Appeals Court

Prediction markets for Federal Appeals Court

Prediction markets for Federal Appeals Court

How many ICE agents will be convicted for crimes committed during the Trump administration?

Will Texas's 2025 redistricting map be used in the 2026 midterms?

How much time will Jair Bolsonaro spend in jail (not house arrest) by Dec 31, 2031?

Prop bets: What will prediction markets do to society (add your own)

Will an animal in the US be recognized as a person by US courts before 2030?

Letitia James convicted before 2029?

2026 Gambling Loss Tax Rules Prop Bets

Will DACA be struck down by the US judicial system?

Trump vs the media: Which lawsuits will succeed?

Will Michele Spagnuolo be convicted

California's AB-1127 ("Glock ban") struck down before 2030?

Circuit-level ruling on a bodily-injury microplastics case (as opposed to consumer protection / greenwashing) by EOY2028

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