Federal Appeals Court News

Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?

Jan 1, 8:11 PMJun 30, 7:10 PM

25.98%chance

12026535

OptionVotes

YES

1151

942

How much time will Jair Bolsonaro spend in jail (not house arrest) by Dec 31, 2031?

Sep 12, 1:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

113329

OptionProbability

1+ days

30+ days

180+ days

365+ days

730+ days

1825+ days

0 days

100

How will the SCOTUS rules on Trump's tariff policy

Oct 9, 12:38 PMDec 31, 1:33 PM

163146

OptionProbability

Partially Unconstitutional

Fully Unconstitutional

Fully Constitutional

Will Texas's 2025 redistricting map be used in the 2026 midterms?

Nov 18, 9:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

92.43%chance

182739

OptionVotes

YES

3495

286

Will SCOTUS rule in favor of Trump in Trump v. Cook?

Jan 19, 12:45 AMJan 1, 12:59 AM

36.26%chance

131408

OptionVotes

YES

1326

754

What will be the result of the US Supreme Court in Learning Resources v. Trump?

Nov 21, 11:19 PMJun 30, 10:12 PM

8628

OptionProbability

Court Rules Tariffs under IEEPA are unconstitutional (strikes down), AND allows at least SOME repayments for companies who have paid tariffs under the IEEPA justification

Court rules that tariffs are constitutional (because Congress didn’t exercise objection right to state of emergency…or other reason).

Court Rules Tariffs under IEEPA are unconstitutional (strikes down), but blocks repayments for companies who have paid tariffs under the IEEPA justification.

Court somehow fudges, or refuses to finalise clear opinion

Other

Will an animal in the US be recognized as a person by US courts before 2030?

Sep 11, 9:45 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.56%chance

12373

OptionVotes

YES

1075

955

Will the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit issue an injunction halting the Liberation Day Tarrifs?

May 14, 2:40 AMMar 2, 3:34 AM

42.65%chance

13339

OptionVotes

YES

120

Will DACA be struck down by the US judicial system?

Sep 14, 4:17 PMDec 1, 7:59 AM

48.34%chance

13185

OptionVotes

YES

229

185

Trump vs the media: Which lawsuits will succeed?

Dec 27, 1:11 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

5122

OptionProbability

CBS case, over 60 Minutes Harris interview

Trump defamation suit against NYT (filed September 2025)

Des Moines Register case, over Ann Selzer poll

Simon & Schuster case, over Bob Woodward book

100

California's AB-1127 ("Glock ban") struck down before 2030?

Oct 14, 8:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.95%chance

377

OptionVotes

YES

173

Is a Forced Reset Trigger (FRT) a machine gun?

Dec 21, 4:36 AMJan 2, 4:30 AM

40.25%chance

446

OptionVotes

YES

122

Federal Appeals Court News

Prediction markets for Federal Appeals Court

Prediction markets for Federal Appeals Court

Prediction markets for Federal Appeals Court

Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?

How much time will Jair Bolsonaro spend in jail (not house arrest) by Dec 31, 2031?

How will the SCOTUS rules on Trump's tariff policy

Will Texas's 2025 redistricting map be used in the 2026 midterms?

Will SCOTUS rule in favor of Trump in Trump v. Cook?

What will be the result of the US Supreme Court in Learning Resources v. Trump?

Will an animal in the US be recognized as a person by US courts before 2030?

Will the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit issue an injunction halting the Liberation Day Tarrifs?

Will DACA be struck down by the US judicial system?

Trump vs the media: Which lawsuits will succeed?

California's AB-1127 ("Glock ban") struck down before 2030?

Is a Forced Reset Trigger (FRT) a machine gun?

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