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Prediction markets for Federal Contracting

Before 2028, will the US Federal Government have paid more than $5B to NVIDIA under the Defense Production Act?

Dec 24, 3:24 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8.18%chance

52620

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3449

306

Will the German Football Federation successfully transition to Nike by 2027?

Mar 21, 10:42 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

93.57%chance

101565

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2490

787

Municipal bond interest tax break limited by EOY?

Mar 20, 2:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.65%chance

51505

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2438

419

Will something horrible happen to Kalshi deposits by 2030?

Mar 21, 2:55 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

81068

OptionProbability

Nothing horrible happens

Internal fraud/embezzlement

Bank or financial partner failure

Cybersecurity breach/hack

Regulatory crackdown with asset seizure

Other

84

3

3

3

3

3

Will Prediction Markets be banned in the US before 31 December, 2026?

Feb 15, 11:44 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

5.43%chance

201045

OptionVotes

YES

NO

417

24

Trump directs government against Musk before 2026 ends?

Jun 5, 7:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.33%chance

20548

OptionVotes

YES

NO

226

44

Will Trump ban stock buybacks/dividends for defense contractors?

Jan 7, 10:37 PMJan 1, 10:36 PM

63.63%chance

8407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

132

76

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

Feb 1, 11:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5331

OptionProbability

Miscellaneous Savings Initiatives

Cutting Wasteful Spending at the Department of Defense (DoD)

Cutting Waste, Fraud, and Abuse in Federal Healthcare Programs

Improving Efficiency Across Federal Agencies

Targeting Tax Loopholes and Inefficiencies

55

53

51

50

28

Prediction markets legalized in India by 2035?

Dec 22, 7:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.99%chance

7157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

65

Will Michele Spagnuolo be convicted

May 28, 1:27 PMMay 1, 1:22 PM

66.27%chance

8109

OptionVotes

NO

YES

140

71

Will the US Government create a public-private partnership with OpenAI by 2028?

May 24, 4:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.83%chance

480

OptionVotes

YES

NO

118

85

Kalshi offers at least one sports prediction contract in January 2028

Oct 26, 10:10 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

66.89%chance

465

OptionVotes

NO

YES

142

70

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