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Prediction markets for Federal Contracting

ICE agent murdered on duty by end of 2026?

Jan 24, 11:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.25%chance

847545

OptionVotes

YES

NO

192

52

Will the German Football Federation successfully transition to Nike by 2027?

Mar 21, 10:42 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

93.57%chance

101565

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2490

787

Municipal bond interest tax break limited by EOY?

Mar 20, 2:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19%chance

31152

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2085

490

Will something horrible happen to Kalshi deposits by 2030?

Mar 21, 2:55 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

81068

OptionProbability

Nothing horrible happens

Internal fraud/embezzlement

Bank or financial partner failure

Cybersecurity breach/hack

Regulatory crackdown with asset seizure

Other

84

3

3

3

3

3

Will Prediction Markets be banned in the US before 31 December, 2026?

Feb 15, 11:44 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

8.64%chance

16857

OptionVotes

YES

NO

325

31

Trump directs government against Musk before 2026 ends?

Jun 5, 7:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.33%chance

19546

OptionVotes

YES

NO

226

44

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

Feb 1, 11:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5331

OptionProbability

Miscellaneous Savings Initiatives

Cutting Wasteful Spending at the Department of Defense (DoD)

Cutting Waste, Fraud, and Abuse in Federal Healthcare Programs

Improving Efficiency Across Federal Agencies

Targeting Tax Loopholes and Inefficiencies

55

53

51

50

28

Will Trump ban stock buybacks/dividends for defense contractors?

Jan 7, 10:37 PMJan 1, 10:36 PM

23.33%chance

5211

OptionVotes

YES

NO

181

55

Before 2028, will the US Federal Government have paid more than $5B to NVIDIA under the Defense Production Act?

Dec 24, 3:24 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

54.23%chance

4120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1119

949

Kalshi offers at least one sports prediction contract in January 2027

Oct 1, 7:00 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

77.34%chance

3105

OptionVotes

NO

YES

185

54

Kalshi offers at least one sports prediction contract in January 2028

Oct 26, 10:10 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

66.89%chance

465

OptionVotes

NO

YES

142

70

When will I be able to use Polymarket in the US?

Mar 11, 10:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

150

OptionProbability

Before 2028-01-01

Before 2027-01-01

69

31

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