Federal Court of Accounts News

Will Anthropic models still be hosted on at least one of AWS, GCP, or Azure at expiry

Feb 28, 12:08 AMAug 31, 10:59 PM

98.97%chance

3119748

OptionVotes

YES

10655

120

Before December 31, 2026, will an ICE agent kill another American citizen?

Jan 8, 6:11 PMDec 31, 11:27 PM

40.47%chance

8914921

OptionVotes

YES

264

Will we learn that Anthropic lied to investors about operating profitable in Q2 2026 before 2028?

May 25, 8:51 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

10.4%chance

131612

OptionVotes

YES

1799

141

Will a social network be blocked in Brazil in 2026?

Mar 14, 2:50 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

72.1%chance

161607

OptionVotes

YES

161

Prop bets: What will prediction markets do to society (add your own)

Feb 17, 6:23 PMDec 31, 6:20 PM

11988

OptionProbability

Create new forms of gambling addiction and financial harm

Provide voting public with better information on candidates chances in elections

Lead to manipulation and misinformation through coordinated betting

Increase polarization by incentivizing extreme predictions

Provide public with better information about impact of policies and new legislation

Bring Jeffrey epstein back to life

Make me the President of USA

Will the Nicholas Funk vs PSA RICO lawsuit get dismissed?

Aug 5, 6:26 AMDec 31, 6:30 AM

78.41%chance

2410

OptionVotes

YES

1363

876

Will the “Stop climate shakedowns act” pass by the end of 2026?

Jun 29, 6:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.31%chance

3297

OptionVotes

YES

267

2026 Gambling Loss Tax Rules Prop Bets

Jul 14, 2:29 PMApr 15, 10:59 PM

4251

OptionProbability

Gambling losses deduction remains limited to 90% as laid out in OBBB

Congress explicitly intervenes to restore 100% deduction (example Rep Titus FAIR BET act enacted)

Mainstream pro gamblers move primarily to prediction markets for tax treatment

Administrative action classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Court ruling classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Legislation classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Major sports book restructures as a prediction market before 2026-01-01

Major sports book goes bankrupt because of OBBB by 2027-01-01

Before December 31, 2026, will an ICE agent kill another American citizen?

Aug 1, 4:23 PMDec 31, 11:27 PM

42.06%chance

7146

OptionVotes

YES

103

Federal Court of Accounts News

Prediction markets for Federal Court of Accounts

Prediction markets for Federal Court of Accounts

Prediction markets for Federal Court of Accounts

Will Anthropic models still be hosted on at least one of AWS, GCP, or Azure at expiry

Before December 31, 2026, will an ICE agent kill another American citizen?

Will we learn that Anthropic lied to investors about operating profitable in Q2 2026 before 2028?

Will a social network be blocked in Brazil in 2026?

Prop bets: What will prediction markets do to society (add your own)

Will the Nicholas Funk vs PSA RICO lawsuit get dismissed?

Will the “Stop climate shakedowns act” pass by the end of 2026?

2026 Gambling Loss Tax Rules Prop Bets

Before December 31, 2026, will an ICE agent kill another American citizen?

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