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Prediction markets for Federal Court of Appeal

Supreme Court rules Trump tariffs lawful?

Aug 29, 10:55 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM

5.41%chance

445014

OptionVotes

YES

NO

418

24

Will the US Supreme Court reaffirm the ruling that generative AI cannot be awarded copyright by end of 2025?

Aug 19, 2:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.02%chance

322151

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1474

843

Will any US federal court rule that the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has broken federal law in 2025?

Feb 8, 1:01 PMJan 1, 2:59 PM

91.33%chance

251532

OptionVotes

NO

YES

325

31

How much time will Jair Bolsonaro spend in jail (not house arrest) by Dec 31, 2031?

Sep 12, 1:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

91516

OptionProbability

1+ days

30+ days

180+ days

365+ days

730+ days

1825+ days

0 days

92

76

74

74

53

41

4

Musk's role at DOGE ruled unconstitutional

Mar 14, 3:00 AMJul 1, 11:59 AM

15.54%chance

231233

OptionVotes

YES

NO

233

43

Will Texas's 2025 redistricting map be used in the 2026 midterms?

Nov 18, 9:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.48%chance

10503

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1263

792

Will an animal in the US be recognized as a person by US courts before 2030?

Sep 11, 9:45 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.56%chance

12373

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

955

Will Trump serve any time in a jail or prison by July 4th, 2029, for any past or new convictions?

Jul 27, 3:31 PMJul 5, 3:59 AM

16.65%chance

12372

OptionVotes

YES

NO

224

45

Will the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit issue an injunction halting the Liberation Day Tarrifs?

May 14, 2:40 AMMar 2, 3:34 AM

42.65%chance

13339

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

90

Will DACA be struck down by the US judicial system?

Sep 14, 4:17 PMDec 1, 7:59 AM

48.34%chance

13185

OptionVotes

NO

YES

229

185

Will the U.S. Supreme Court issue an injunction halting the Liberation Day tariffs?

May 29, 2:56 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

31.24%chance

7121

OptionVotes

YES

NO

148

67

California's AB-1127 ("Glock ban") struck down before 2030?

Oct 14, 8:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.95%chance

377

OptionVotes

NO

YES

173

58

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