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Democrats Shed 2.1 Million Voters Since 2020, NYT Analysis Shows
Authors
40
7 months ago
Prediction markets for Federal Election Commission
OptionProbability
20
16
16
11
5
5
3
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
96
95
89
89
89
87
85
85
81
81
77
76
75
75
72
71
71
70
66
66
65
63
61
59
57
56
51
49
49
44
43
41
39
38
34
33
32
28
27
26
24
24
20
18
18
16
16
16
15
14
14
13
11
10
10
9
8
7
5
5
5
5
5
4
3
0
U.S. federal government announces delay or suspension of 2026 midterm elections before November 3, 2026
Feb 4, 2:18 AMNov 2, 12:00 AM
5.35%chance
4223951
OptionVotes
12072
3862
Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?
Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM
57.01%chance
9113224
OptionVotes
1152
868
Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins a seat in Congress in 2026
Jul 9, 9:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
3.38%chance
176141
OptionVotes
5347
187
Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins 10%+ of vote for a Congressional seat in 2026?
Jul 10, 1:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
3.97%chance
204790
OptionVotes
4917
203
OptionVotes
1229
814
OptionVotes
1151
869
OptionVotes
1054
831
Will the 2028 Presidential Election Winner Mog the Runner-up?
Feb 26, 2:28 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM
58.66%chance
7345
OptionVotes
1112
813
Will the GOP face a serious third party competition by midterms 2030?
Mar 13, 10:46 PMNov 4, 11:59 PM
46.84%chance
6163
OptionVotes
1065
939
Will Trump/Vance give Ken Paxton a position/title in the federal govt?
Mar 4, 8:03 PMJan 20, 12:00 PM
30.77%chance
150
OptionVotes
150
67


