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Prediction markets for Federal Elections Commission

2028 US Presidential Election winner?

Jan 10, 6:40 AMNov 6, 7:59 AM

742824412

OptionProbability

JD Vance

Other

Gavin Newsom

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Pete Buttigieg

No 2028 Election

Kamala Harris

Josh Shapiro

Donald Trump (Sr.)

Marco Rubio

Nikki Haley

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Ron DeSantis

Donald Trump Jr.

Ivanka Trump

Gretchen Whitmer

Mark Kelly

Tulsi Gabbard

Andy Beshear

Tim Walz

Cory Booker

JB Pritzker

Glenn Youngkin

Wes Moore

Ruben Gallego

Elon Musk

Vivek Ramaswamy

Tucker Carlson

Joe Rogan

Kanye West

Tim Scott

Dean Phillips

Jimmy Donaldson(MrBeast)

Greg Abbott

Mike Gallagher

Raphael Warnock

Elissa Slotkin

Tammy Baldwin

Jacky Rosen

Shawn Fain

Abigail Spanberger

Mike Johnson

24

22

17

5

3

3

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Elon musk form a new political party

Jul 1, 1:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.86%chance

399625967

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12117

325

U.S. federal government announces delay or suspension of 2026 midterm elections before November 3, 2026

Feb 4, 2:18 AMNov 2, 12:00 AM

3.29%chance

2821268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16673

2092

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

51.14%chance

9012803

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1023

978

Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins a seat in Congress in 2026

Jul 9, 9:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.03%chance

175141

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4347

230

Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins 10%+ of vote for a Congressional seat in 2026?

Jul 10, 1:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.57%chance

173990

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4117

243

Which party will win the 2028 US presidential election?

Jun 12, 12:47 PMNov 6, 11:59 PM

293883

OptionProbability

Democrats

Republicans

3rd Party

4th Party

5th Party

6th Party

7th Party

8th Party

9th Party

10th Party

Republicrats

Demopublicans

Other

57

41

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Elon elected to public office as America Party member?

Jul 6, 7:05 PMDec 31, 8:04 PM

3%chance

643025

OptionVotes

YES

NO

569

18

Republicans win 2028 election?

Aug 1, 8:28 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

43%chance

222063

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1151

869

Democrats win 2028 election?

Aug 1, 8:26 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

56.79%chance

261873

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

872

Will Nikki Haley run for President in 2028?

Mar 8, 1:12 AMNov 11, 1:29 PM

67.56%chance

13363

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1047

845

2028 US Vice Presidential Election winner?

Sep 2, 5:58 AMNov 5, 11:59 PM

8263

OptionProbability

Other

Marco Rubio

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Pete Buttigieg

Gavin Newsom

Josh Shapiro

JD Vance

73

7

5

5

4

3

2

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