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Prediction markets for Federal Funds Rate

Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026

Feb 7, 3:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.25%chance

2236058

OptionVotes

YES

NO

36357

3497

Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates in 2026?

Mar 5, 4:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.44%chance

5413682

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1138

879

Will Jerome Powells Sucessor cut federal interest rates to 1% or lower?

Jan 12, 1:55 AMMay 15, 11:59 PM

9.68%chance

183276

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3056

327

Fed decision in September?

Jul 29, 6:10 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

132342

OptionProbability

No change

25+ bps increase

25+ bps decrease

62

36

2

Interest rates above 10% before 2030?

Jul 22, 3:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.86%chance

92331

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2144

466

Will the effective federal funds rate (interest rate) drop to below 1% again in the next 5 years?

Nov 18, 1:13 PMNov 25, 11:59 PM

9.45%chance

112231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1320

218

With the new peace talks with Iran, will interest rate rates lower in the next eight weeks?

Jun 19, 5:53 PMAug 14, 5:52 PM

2.54%chance

161235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

619

16

Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the Sept. 16, 2026 FOMC meeting?

Jun 17, 10:04 PMSep 16, 6:25 PM

1%chance

71211

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1121

14

Will annual U.S. debt interest payments exceed 20% of federal budget revenue by 2028?

May 29, 1:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.99%chance

12961

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

887

Will the Fed cut rates by 25 bps at its next meeting?

Aug 4, 3:21 AMSep 23, 11:59 PM

6.99%chance

12471

OptionVotes

YES

NO

365

27

Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates in 2026?

Aug 1, 4:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.67%chance

9364

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

68

Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the Oct. 28, 2026 FOMC meeting?

Jun 18, 12:01 PMOct 28, 6:25 PM

14.87%chance

5158

OptionVotes

YES

NO

234

50

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