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Prediction markets for Federal Funds Rate

Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026

Feb 7, 3:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.03%chance

1927975

OptionVotes

YES

NO

31877

3892

Will Fed (Kevin Warsh) cut interest rates by July 2026?

Jun 9, 9:55 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

1.54%chance

259791

OptionVotes

YES

NO

800

13

Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates in 2026?

Mar 5, 4:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58%chance

409386

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1175

851

Will the effective federal funds rate (interest rate) drop to below 1% again in the next 5 years?

Nov 18, 1:13 PMNov 25, 11:59 PM

13.97%chance

111917

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1006

259

Will Jerome Powells Sucessor cut federal interest rates to 1% or lower?

Jan 12, 1:55 AMMay 15, 11:59 PM

27.72%chance

161851

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1615

620

What will the Fed rate be end of FY2026

Jul 22, 11:47 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

6972

OptionProbability

3 - 4.99%

5 - 6.99%

1 - 2.99%

Below 0%

0 - 0.99%

7 - 8.99%

9 - 10%

Above 10%

88

4

2

1

1

1

1

1

Will annual U.S. debt interest payments exceed 20% of federal budget revenue by 2028?

May 29, 1:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.55%chance

11951

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

895

Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the July 29, 2026 FOMC meeting?

Jun 18, 12:02 AMJul 29, 6:25 PM

1.92%chance

7679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

779

19

Will the federal funds rate fall below 2.5% by the end of July 2026?

Jan 12, 3:44 AMJul 31, 11:59 PM

1.74%chance

7676

OptionVotes

YES

NO

751

13

Will the Fed cut the federal funds rate at its July 2026 FOMC meeting?

Jun 14, 12:30 PMJul 30, 11:59 PM

2.28%chance

5668

OptionVotes

YES

NO

699

58

Federal Reserve FOMC decision in July 2026? [2k added subsidy]

Jun 23, 3:43 PMJul 30, 11:59 PM

3560

OptionProbability

No change

25 bps increase

25 bps decrease

50 bps increase

49

23

15

13

Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the Oct. 28, 2026 FOMC meeting?

Jun 18, 12:01 PMOct 28, 6:25 PM

22.13%chance

479

OptionVotes

YES

NO

179

62

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