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Prediction markets for Federal Funds Rate

Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026

Feb 7, 3:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.46%chance

1620038

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29132

4187

Fed decision in April?

Dec 11, 9:03 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM

1210471

OptionProbability

No change

25+ bps increase

25 bps decrease

50+ bps decrease

95

3

2

1

Fed decision in April?

Mar 19, 2:53 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM

64433

OptionProbability

No change

25+ bps increase

50+ bps decrease

25 bps decrease

95

2

1

1

Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates in 2026?

Mar 5, 4:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.71%chance

102442

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1656

604

Will the effective federal funds rate (interest rate) drop to below 1% again in the next 5 years?

Nov 18, 1:13 PMNov 25, 11:59 PM

18%chance

101681

OptionVotes

YES

NO

836

291

Will Jerome Powells Sucessor cut federal interest rates to 1% or lower?

Jan 12, 1:55 AMMay 15, 11:59 PM

34%chance

161626

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1394

718

Will annual U.S. debt interest payments exceed 20% of federal budget revenue by 2028?

May 29, 1:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.55%chance

11951

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

895

What will the Fed rate be end of FY2026

Jul 22, 11:47 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

5690

OptionProbability

3 - 4.99%

1 - 2.99%

5 - 6.99%

Below 0%

0 - 0.99%

7 - 8.99%

9 - 10%

Above 10%

42

35

10

3

3

3

2

2

Will the federal funds rate fall below 2.5% by the end of July 2026?

Jan 12, 3:44 AMJul 31, 11:59 PM

11%chance

5210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

285

35

Will the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates at least 3 times before December 31, 2026?

Mar 18, 4:25 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

22%chance

10156

OptionVotes

YES

NO

188

53

When will one of the top 5 U.S. universities (HYPSM) fall out of the top 10?

Aug 6, 7:32 AMSep 30, 7:26 AM

110

OptionProbability

After 2045

2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039

2040-2044

33

17

17

17

17

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