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Prediction markets for Federal Funds Rate

Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026

Feb 7, 3:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3%chance

26155752

OptionVotes

YES

NO

60647

2307

Fed decision in December?

Sep 4, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2014129

OptionProbability

Increase

No change

Decrease

75

24

1

Fed decision in March

Oct 2, 3:10 PMMar 17, 6:00 PM

94890

OptionProbability

No change

Increase (25 bps or more)

Decrease (25 bps or more)

54

41

5

Will Jerome Powells Sucessor cut federal interest rates to 1% or lower?

Jan 12, 1:55 AMMay 15, 11:59 PM

6.51%chance

194040

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3792

264

Will the effective federal funds rate (interest rate) drop to below 1% again in the next 5 years?

Nov 18, 1:13 PMNov 25, 11:59 PM

4.9%chance

112945

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2034

166

Interest rates above 10% before 2030?

Jul 22, 3:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.59%chance

102869

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1851

540

Will the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates at least 3 times before December 31, 2026?

Mar 18, 4:25 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

1%chance

151229

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

10

Will annual U.S. debt interest payments exceed 20% of federal budget revenue by 2028?

May 29, 1:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.99%chance

12961

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

887

When will the US enact a universal basic income of at least $500/month per adult?

Sep 30, 12:07 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

335

OptionProbability

Not by the end of 2050

2041–2050

2037–2040

2033–2036

2026–2028

2029–2032

75

14

5

3

1

1

By the end of 2036, will US federal law guarantee $6,000/year in cash to a non-disabled adult with no income?

Sep 30, 12:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.36%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

99

By the end of 2036, will the US enact a universal cash payment to all adults of at least... (per year, 2026 dollars)

Sep 30, 12:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

110

OptionProbability

$1,000/year

$3,000/year

$6,000/year

$12,000/year

9

7

5

2

When will one of the top 5 U.S. universities (HYPSM) fall out of the top 10?

Aug 6, 7:32 AMSep 30, 7:26 AM

110

OptionProbability

After 2045

2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039

2040-2044

33

17

17

17

17

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