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Prediction markets for Federal Funds Rate

Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026

Feb 7, 3:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3.59%chance

2365063

OptionVotes

YES

NO

54752

2507

Fed decision in October?

Sep 2, 3:16 PMOct 28, 6:00 PM

124900

OptionProbability

Increase (25 bps or more)

No change

Decrease (25 bps or more)

53

45

2

Fed decision in December?

Sep 4, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

124625

OptionProbability

Increase

No change

Decrease

66

30

4

Will Jerome Powells Sucessor cut federal interest rates to 1% or lower?

Jan 12, 1:55 AMMay 15, 11:59 PM

9.68%chance

183276

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3056

327

Will the effective federal funds rate (interest rate) drop to below 1% again in the next 5 years?

Nov 18, 1:13 PMNov 25, 11:59 PM

5.75%chance

112745

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1834

177

Interest rates above 10% before 2030?

Jul 22, 3:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.71%chance

102663

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1957

511

Will the Fed cut rates by 25 bps at its next meeting?

Aug 4, 3:21 AMSep 23, 11:59 PM

1%chance

181264

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

10

Will the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates at least 3 times before December 31, 2026?

Mar 18, 4:25 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

1%chance

151229

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

10

Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the Oct. 28, 2026 FOMC meeting?

Jun 18, 12:01 PMOct 28, 6:25 PM

1%chance

81045

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1121

14

Will annual U.S. debt interest payments exceed 20% of federal budget revenue by 2028?

May 29, 1:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.99%chance

12961

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

887

🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in October 2026?

Sep 11, 7:40 PMOct 27, 5:00 PM

53.43%chance

16367

OptionVotes

NO

YES

107

93

When will one of the top 5 U.S. universities (HYPSM) fall out of the top 10?

Aug 6, 7:32 AMSep 30, 7:26 AM

110

OptionProbability

After 2045

2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039

2040-2044

33

17

17

17

17

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