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Prediction markets for Federal Funds Rate

Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026

Feb 7, 3:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.04%chance

1826951

OptionVotes

YES

NO

31861

3893

Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates in 2026?

Mar 5, 4:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22%chance

235623

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1883

531

Will the effective federal funds rate (interest rate) drop to below 1% again in the next 5 years?

Nov 18, 1:13 PMNov 25, 11:59 PM

17%chance

111784

OptionVotes

YES

NO

872

283

Will the Federal Open Market Committee announce a decrease in the federal funds rate at the June 17, 2026, meeting?

Apr 19, 6:04 PMJun 18, 12:00 AM

12.53%chance

71739

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2642

378

Will Jerome Powells Sucessor cut federal interest rates to 1% or lower?

Jan 12, 1:55 AMMay 15, 11:59 PM

31%chance

161725

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1492

671

Will annual U.S. debt interest payments exceed 20% of federal budget revenue by 2028?

May 29, 1:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.55%chance

11951

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

895

What will the Fed rate be end of FY2026

Jul 22, 11:47 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

6840

OptionProbability

3 - 4.99%

1 - 2.99%

5 - 6.99%

Below 0%

0 - 0.99%

7 - 8.99%

9 - 10%

Above 10%

85

6

3

1

1

1

1

1

Will the federal funds rate fall below 2.5% by the end of July 2026?

Jan 12, 3:44 AMJul 31, 11:59 PM

5%chance

5361

OptionVotes

YES

NO

436

23

Will the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates at least 3 times before December 31, 2026?

Mar 18, 4:25 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

20%chance

12251

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

What will be the Federal Target Rate range after the final FOMC meeting of 2026?

Apr 10, 1:52 PMDec 16, 11:59 PM

140

OptionProbability

3.50% – 3.75%

3.00% – 3.25%

3.25% – 3.50%

3.75% – 4.00%

Below 2.75%

2.75% – 3.00%

Above 4.00%

30

13

13

13

11

11

11

When will one of the top 5 U.S. universities (HYPSM) fall out of the top 10?

Aug 6, 7:32 AMSep 30, 7:26 AM

110

OptionProbability

After 2045

2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039

2040-2044

33

17

17

17

17

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