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Prediction markets for Federal Government

Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?

Sep 19, 12:51 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

240347756

OptionProbability

R President, R Senate, D House

R Pres, D Senate, D House

R President, R Senate, R House - Republican Trifecta

R President, D Senate, R House

D President, D Senate, D House - Democrat Trifecta

D President, R Senate, R House

D President, D Senate, R House

D President, R Senate, D House

58

26

14

1

0

0

0

0

Federal government employment decreases by >500,000 before January 2026

Mar 8, 6:38 AMDec 31, 12:00 AM

1.81%chance

3542158

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7376

136

U.S. federal government announces delay or suspension of 2026 midterm elections before November 3, 2026

Feb 4, 2:18 AMNov 2, 12:00 AM

3.29%chance

2821268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16673

2092

Salary withheld for 5000 full time US federal government employees on or before December 31, 2025

Feb 2, 8:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.93%chance

2220339

OptionVotes

YES

NO

27976

1980

Will the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030?

Aug 18, 12:37 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

70.94%chance

8519270

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1559

672

Does the US Federal Government spend 1% of its budget on dialysis?

Oct 24, 4:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48.76%chance

306973

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

975

Will the Federal Government effectively ban the use of gas stoves in new construction by 2026?

Jan 13, 12:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

6.84%chance

1435876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4576

1727

Will there be a US Sovereign Wealth Fund established by the federal government by the end of the 119th congress?

Nov 21, 6:49 PMJan 7, 4:59 AM

9.02%chance

132453

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2055

53

Federal government fellowship approximating discontinued PMF program opens applications by EOY2030?

Apr 20, 6:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.62%chance

9702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10538

9489

Will the German federal government survive its full 4-year term?

Oct 27, 10:32 PMDec 8, 11:59 PM

40.03%chance

8554

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1224

817

Will the Brazilian Federal Government have a majority stake in Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais (CEMIG) before 2027?

Feb 6, 2:17 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

40.8%chance

6450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

830

Before 2028, will the US Federal Government have paid more than $5B to NVIDIA under the Defense Production Act?

Dec 24, 3:24 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

54.23%chance

4120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1119

949

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