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Prediction markets for Federal Government

Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?

Sep 19, 12:51 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

149198802

OptionProbability

R President, R Senate, D House

R Pres, D Senate, D House

R President, R Senate, R House - Republican Trifecta

R President, D Senate, R House

D President, D Senate, D House - Democrat Trifecta

D President, R Senate, R House

D President, D Senate, R House

D President, R Senate, D House

61

21

17

2

0

0

0

0

U.S. federal government announces delay or suspension of 2026 midterm elections before November 3, 2026

Feb 4, 2:18 AMNov 2, 12:00 AM

3%chance

2721165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17967

2050

Will the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030?

Aug 18, 12:37 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

57.71%chance

8118684

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1157

893

Salary withheld for 5000 full time US federal government employees on or before December 31, 2025

Feb 2, 8:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.33%chance

146906

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14718

5388

Does the US Federal Government spend 1% of its budget on dialysis?

Oct 24, 4:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.22%chance

286741

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1057

946

Will the Federal Government effectively ban the use of gas stoves in new construction by 2026?

Jan 13, 12:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

9.11%chance

1414725

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3527

1816

Will an openly trans Republican be elected to a U.S. state or federal government position by the end of 2030?

Jul 2, 2:27 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19%chance

623863

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1586

780

Will there be a US Sovereign Wealth Fund established by the federal government by the end of the 119th congress?

Nov 21, 6:49 PMJan 7, 4:59 AM

27.76%chance

122331

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1555

155

Will the US Federal Government legalize recreational marijuana by 2030?

Oct 29, 5:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

67.89%chance

531868

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

942

Federal government fellowship approximating discontinued PMF program opens applications by EOY2030?

Apr 20, 6:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.62%chance

9702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10538

9489

Will the Brazilian Federal Government have a majority stake in Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais (CEMIG) before 2027?

Feb 6, 2:17 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

40.8%chance

6450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

830

Before 2028, will the US Federal Government have paid more than $5B to NVIDIA under the Defense Production Act?

Dec 24, 3:24 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

54.23%chance

4120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1089

919

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