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Prediction markets for Federal Government

Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?

Sep 19, 12:51 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

352485921

OptionProbability

R Pres, D Senate, D House

R President, R Senate, D House

R President, R Senate, R House - Republican Trifecta

R President, D Senate, R House

D President, D Senate, D House - Democrat Trifecta

D President, R Senate, R House

D President, D Senate, R House

D President, R Senate, D House

45

41

13

1

0

0

0

0

U.S. federal government announces delay or suspension of 2026 midterm elections before November 3, 2026

Feb 4, 2:18 AMNov 2, 12:00 AM

4.59%chance

4327858

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13851

3770

Will the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030?

Aug 18, 12:37 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

72.26%chance

8819556

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1612

651

Will the German federal government survive its full 4-year term?

Oct 27, 10:32 PMDec 8, 11:59 PM

50.97%chance

224343

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

981

Will an openly trans Republican be elected to a U.S. state or federal government position by the end of 2030?

Jul 2, 2:27 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.77%chance

654304

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1534

792

Will the US Federal Government legalize recreational marijuana by 2030?

Oct 29, 5:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

64.28%chance

552066

OptionVotes

YES

NO

996

946

Will a U.S. Federal Government entity create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 31, 6:41 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.86%chance

15810

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1652

885

Will the federal government ban the sale or making of cultured meat throughout US by the end of 2028?

Apr 2, 6:43 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

9.46%chance

11794

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1726

863

Federal government fellowship approximating discontinued PMF program opens applications by EOY2030?

Apr 20, 6:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.62%chance

9702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10538

9489

Will the Brazilian Federal Government have a majority stake in Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais (CEMIG) before 2027?

Feb 6, 2:17 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

40.8%chance

6450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

830

Will there be verified U.S. federal government actions intended to influence an Alberta independence referendum?

Jan 30, 1:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.53%chance

5170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1051

952

Before 2028, will the US Federal Government have paid more than $5B to NVIDIA under the Defense Production Act?

Dec 24, 3:24 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

54.23%chance

4120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1119

949

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