Federal High Court News

How much time will Jair Bolsonaro spend in jail (not house arrest) by Dec 31, 2031?

Sep 12, 1:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

113329

OptionProbability

1+ days

30+ days

180+ days

365+ days

730+ days

1825+ days

0 days

100

Which Russian regions will hold referendums and declare independence from the Russian Federation by 2040?

Oct 17, 10:23 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

93132

OptionProbability

Ingria

Chechnya (Ichkeria)

Zaporozhye (Zaporizhzhia) Oblast

Kaliningrad (Königsberg)

Bashkortostan

Tatarstan

Udmurtia

Chuvashia

Sakha (Yakutia)

Karelia

Dagestan

Buryatia

Kurdistan will become a state in 2029

Jan 18, 3:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.18%chance

11941

OptionVotes

YES

220

Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by...?

Dec 30, 5:32 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

9832

OptionProbability

Dec 31, 2026

Jun 30, 2026

Jan 31, 2026

What will be the result of the US Supreme Court in Learning Resources v. Trump?

Nov 21, 11:19 PMJun 30, 10:12 PM

8628

OptionProbability

Court Rules Tariffs under IEEPA are unconstitutional (strikes down), AND allows at least SOME repayments for companies who have paid tariffs under the IEEPA justification

Court rules that tariffs are constitutional (because Congress didn’t exercise objection right to state of emergency…or other reason).

Court Rules Tariffs under IEEPA are unconstitutional (strikes down), but blocks repayments for companies who have paid tariffs under the IEEPA justification.

Court somehow fudges, or refuses to finalise clear opinion

Other

Who will join STF (Brazil's Supreme Court) in their lifetime?

Mar 28, 2:10 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

4580

OptionProbability

Jorge Messias

Bruno Dantas

Vera Lúcia Santana Araújo

Conrado Hübner Mendes

Silvio Almeida

Will the US undergo a major political crisis before 2027

Jul 4, 6:28 AMJan 11, 7:59 AM

54.95%chance

15570

OptionVotes

YES

110

Will Luigi Mangione plead guilty for the shooting of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson

Feb 5, 5:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.37%chance

15484

OptionVotes

YES

483

Trump vs the media: Which lawsuits will succeed?

Dec 27, 1:11 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

5122

OptionProbability

CBS case, over 60 Minutes Harris interview

Trump defamation suit against NYT (filed September 2025)

Des Moines Register case, over Ann Selzer poll

Simon & Schuster case, over Bob Woodward book

100

Federal High Court News

Prediction markets for Federal High Court

Prediction markets for Federal High Court

Prediction markets for Federal High Court

How much time will Jair Bolsonaro spend in jail (not house arrest) by Dec 31, 2031?

Which Russian regions will hold referendums and declare independence from the Russian Federation by 2040?

Kurdistan will become a state in 2029

Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by...?

What will be the result of the US Supreme Court in Learning Resources v. Trump?

Who will join STF (Brazil's Supreme Court) in their lifetime?

Will the US undergo a major political crisis before 2027

Will Luigi Mangione plead guilty for the shooting of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson

Trump vs the media: Which lawsuits will succeed?

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