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Prediction markets for Federal Housing Administration

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

56.6%chance

9413352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1142

876

Alcatraz transfer language passed by either chamber by end of 2026?

May 5, 1:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.43%chance

509368

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13135

3475

Trump orders active duty military to NYC by end of 2026?

Nov 5, 11:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.29%chance

134678

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2953

339

First event in new White House ballroom?

Oct 26, 4:40 PMFeb 1, 5:35 PM

14603

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2029

Before July 2028

Before Jan 2028

Before July 2027

Before Jan 2027

Before July 2026

68

49

41

28

6

0

Will there be large voting fraud accusations following 2026 midterms?

Sep 13, 3:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.33%chance

16453

OptionVotes

NO

YES

251

40

Will there be over 215 Republican seats after the midterm elections in the House of Representatives?

May 8, 6:35 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

18%chance

11149

OptionVotes

YES

NO

213

47

Will the DOJ open an 'election integrity' investigation for a midterm election before 2027?

Jan 9, 12:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

87%chance

9120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

183

82

Kratom federally banned in US by 2030?

Nov 20, 6:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

78.49%chance

291

OptionVotes

NO

YES

191

52

Will all type of vaccines be abolished during the second Trump administration?

Sep 16, 5:52 AMJan 20, 7:30 AM

3.28%chance

252

OptionVotes

YES

NO

152

98

Will Trump/Vance give Ken Paxton a position/title in the federal govt?

Mar 4, 8:03 PMJan 20, 12:00 PM

30.77%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

67

Will the US launch a Manhattan Project / Apollo Program for AI safety by EOY 2030?

Jun 21, 10:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.34%chance

635

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

Will $500 Obamacare rebate checks start going out by Oct. 31 2026? (ACA)

Sep 20, 9:29 PMNov 2, 12:59 AM

37.66%chance

332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

129

78

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