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Prediction markets for Federal Housing Administration

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

59.06%chance

9213274

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1201

833

Alcatraz transfer language passed by either chamber by end of 2026?

May 5, 1:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.96%chance

474052

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8923

4537

Trump orders active duty military to NYC by end of 2026?

Nov 5, 11:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.86%chance

113953

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2303

434

Trump will announce tariffs on a European country to pay towards the Iran war by end of Jun 2026

Apr 1, 4:36 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

8.83%chance

20685

OptionVotes

YES

NO

321

31

First event in new White House ballroom?

Oct 26, 4:40 PMFeb 1, 5:35 PM

13601

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2029

Before July 2028

Before Jan 2028

Before July 2027

Before Jan 2027

Before July 2026

65

49

41

28

6

1

Trump orders mandatory AI predeployment evals by end of August

May 6, 3:24 AMAug 31, 11:59 PM

8.58%chance

9246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

326

31

Will the DOJ open an 'election integrity' investigation for a midterm election before 2027?

Jan 9, 12:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

87%chance

9120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

183

82

Is ICE going to be deployed in polls this midterms?

Mar 31, 2:36 PMNov 1, 11:59 PM

50%chance

4100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will there be over 215 Republican seats after the midterm elections in the House of Representatives?

May 8, 6:35 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

30.54%chance

781

OptionVotes

YES

NO

151

66

Will Trump/Vance give Ken Paxton a position/title in the federal govt?

Mar 4, 8:03 PMJan 20, 12:00 PM

30.77%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

67

Will the US launch a Manhattan Project / Apollo Program for AI safety by EOY 2030?

Jun 21, 10:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.34%chance

635

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

Kratom federally banned in US by 2030?

Nov 20, 6:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.98%chance

125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

125

80

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