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Prediction markets for Federal Register
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
99
98
96
91
90
89
89
88
85
81
81
77
77
76
75
73
72
71
70
69
66
65
65
63
63
60
60
57
49
49
43
41
38
34
33
32
28
27
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26
24
21
20
18
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11
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9
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5
5
5
5
3
3
0
OptionVotes
3838
235
Will more US AI models be subject to US export control directives by the end of 2026?
Jun 15, 2:03 PMJan 1, 11:00 AM
35.57%chance
335843
OptionVotes
1346
743
Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?
Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
29.78%chance
175742
OptionVotes
15357
6512
OptionVotes
5274
59
Will an AD duty order on unwrought palladium from Russia be issued by Oct 31, 2026?
Feb 16, 5:48 PMOct 31, 5:48 PM
69.02%chance
3538
OptionVotes
1126
938
Will the full AD/CVD case on Russian palladium result in a duty order by Oct 31, 2026?
Feb 16, 5:57 PMOct 31, 5:57 PM
68.31%chance
3514
OptionVotes
1102
949
Will the United States regulate cryptocurrency due to its use in upcoming war before the end of 2027
Mar 22, 8:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
22%chance
5138
OptionVotes
188
53
Will Trump raise tariffs on any G7 country to more than 50%?
Feb 7, 4:25 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM
25.81%chance
798
OptionVotes
170
59
Will the US impose antidumping duties on Russian palladium imports by the end of 2026?
Feb 16, 6:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
74.12%chance
280
OptionVotes
133
86
OptionVotes
125
80
OptionProbability
17
17
17
17
17
17
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