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Federal Register News

    Prediction markets for Federal Register

    What will Trump do during his second term (2025–2029)?

    Jan 22, 7:24 AMJan 24, 6:46 PM
    25348395

    OptionProbability

    Post a Tweet

    Withdraw the US from the Paris Climate Agreement

    Bomb Iran

    Pardon a person convicted of a violent crime against police (e.g. January 6 insurrectionists)

    Enrich himself & his family financially

    Shake hands with Putin

    Reverse Biden's executive order on AI

    Play golf

    Shake hands with Xi Jinping

    Visit a golf course more than 10% of the days he spends in office

    Start a war

    Deny Climate Change

    Appoint a federal judge who is rated NQ (Not Qualified) by the American Bar Association

    Increase US oil production

    Promote the product of a supporter from the Oval Office

    Have to have the VP (or someone else) be acting president for any amount of time

    Post on Social Media that the DOJ should investigate somebody who is subsequently investigated by the DOJ

    Call a national emergency for a non-foreign affairs issue

    Appoint a Justice to the Supreme Court

    Attend at least one current state leader funeral

    Threaten a world leader with nuclear attack

    Question the effectiveness or safety of vaccines in general

    Sign bills with a Sharpie or similar

    Fire someone he nominated to a government position via social media (“fired by tweet”)

    Exercise

    Detain large numbers of legal immigrants as part of a program ostensibly targeting illegal immigrants

    Comment Publicly on the Investment Merits of DJT Stock

    Pardon someone with the last name Trump (excluding himself)

    Shake hands with Donald Tusk

    Visit a golf course more than 20% of the days he spends in office

    Get impeached

    Authorize or explicitly endorse violence against peaceful protesters

    Suppress, censor, or shut down any US news media outlet (including websites)

    Suggest his face should be added to mount rushmore

    Pardon himself

    Withdraw support for Ukraine

    Have a net approval below -20% at any point

    Suggests in a speech or verified written format that Cuba join as a state

    Eliminate Daylight Savings Time

    Trumped-Up Charges: Trump appoints an Attorney General whose office goes on to seek a criminal indictment against ex-President Joseph Biden.

    Be the subject of a successful invocation of the 25th amendment

    Leave office early

    Advocate or support a genocide (anywhere in the world)

    Order the US military to attack US citizens on US soil

    End SBA direct lending

    Initiate tariffs that would apply to GPUs from Taiwan

    Use the powers of his office to hurt Elon Musk's competitors

    Reference "Situational Awareness"

    Eat a hamnhrb

    Pass away

    Attempt to stay in power for a third term

    Order the extrajudicial killing of a (named) US citizen on US soil

    Pardon SBF

    Make America Great Again

    Order a nuclear strike

    Talk with Kim Jong Un face to face

    Register with the Federal Election Commission to run for president

    Die

    Declassify the existence of non human intelligence.

    Instruct the military to fire on protesters with live bullets, leading to at least one death

    Make an executive order with the stated intention of slowing down AI development

    Ban TikTok

    Withdraw the US from NATO

    Signs a bill that admits a new state to the Union.

    Order the extrajudicial killing of any federal or state elected official

    Completely withdraw United States Forces Korea

    Here's Johnny: Trump again appoints John Bolton to an official position in his administration.

    Cry on camera

    Be in some type of official captivity at any level before the end of the planned term in 2029

    Have over +20 net approval according to 538, at any point

    Direct the killing of a political opponent

    Be removed via the 25th Amendment

    Buy Greenland

    Do another Home Alone cameo

    Sign a bill into law on day one

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    99

    98

    96

    91

    90

    89

    89

    88

    85

    81

    81

    77

    77

    76

    75

    73

    72

    71

    70

    69

    66

    65

    65

    63

    63

    60

    60

    57

    49

    49

    43

    41

    38

    34

    33

    32

    28

    27

    27

    26

    24

    21

    20

    18

    17

    17

    16

    16

    15

    15

    14

    14

    11

    10

    10

    9

    8

    7

    6

    5

    5

    5

    5

    3

    3

    0

    Will JD Vance assume presidential powers in 2026?

    Jan 16, 3:41 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    8.3%chance
    5510916

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    3838

    235

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1346

    743

    Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

    Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    29.78%chance
    175742

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    15357

    6512

    Will Nick Reiner be pardoned by Trump?

    Dec 16, 3:32 PMJan 18, 11:59 PM
    2.46%chance
    195390

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    5274

    59

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1126

    938

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1102

    949

    Will Trump raise tariffs on any G7 country to more than 50%?

    Feb 7, 4:25 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM
    25.81%chance
    798

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    170

    59

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    133

    86

    Kratom federally banned in US by 2030?

    Nov 20, 6:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    60.98%chance
    125

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    125

    80

    Will Ford Emissions end at?

    Mar 8, 9:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
    00

    OptionProbability

    Below 3.2

    3.2 - 3.4

    3.4 - 3.6

    3.6 - 3.8

    3.8 - 4.0

    Above 4.0

    17

    17

    17

    17

    17

    17

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