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Prediction markets for Federal Reserve FOMC

Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?

Dec 14, 1:34 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

17.84%chance

4810173

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1609

816

How many net Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Nov 1, 8:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

177724

OptionProbability

1 cut (Target 3.25-3.50)

0 cuts (Target 3.50-3.75)

2 cuts (Target 3.00-3.25)

3 cuts (Target 2.75-3.00)

Other

4 cuts (Target 2.50-2.75)

28

24

21

12

10

5

Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates in 2026?

Mar 5, 4:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.75%chance

153503

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1466

682

Will the FOMC cut rates before Inflation minus Unemployment Rate is below negative 4%?

May 4, 2:06 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

97.27%chance

92474

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2665

105

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Dec 11, 8:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

91365

OptionProbability

1 (25 bps)

0 (0 bps)

2 (50 bps)

3 (75 bps)

4 (100 bps)

5 - 6 (125 bps - 150 bps)

7 - 8 (175 bps - 200 bps)

9 - 10 (225 bps - 250 bps)

11 - 12 (275 bps - 300 bps)

35

24

22

8

4

2

2

2

2

What will the Fed rate be end of FY2026

Jul 22, 11:47 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

5690

OptionProbability

3 - 4.99%

1 - 2.99%

5 - 6.99%

Below 0%

0 - 0.99%

7 - 8.99%

9 - 10%

Above 10%

42

35

10

3

3

3

2

2

Will the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates at least 3 times before December 31, 2026?

Mar 18, 4:25 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

25%chance

11166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

173

58

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