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Prediction markets for Federal Reserve FOMC

Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?

Dec 14, 1:34 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

15.84%chance

5010342

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1779

781

Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates in 2026?

Mar 5, 4:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53%chance

429894

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1062

942

Will Fed (Kevin Warsh) cut interest rates by July 2026?

Jun 9, 9:55 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

1.61%chance

259809

OptionVotes

YES

NO

782

13

Federal Reserve (Fed) FOMC decision in July 2026? [2k added subsidy]

Jun 23, 3:43 PMJul 30, 11:59 PM

73401

OptionProbability

No change

25 bps increase

25 bps decrease

50 bps increase

77

15

5

3

Will the FOMC cut rates before Inflation minus Unemployment Rate is below negative 4%?

May 4, 2:06 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

96.31%chance

112504

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2224

120

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Dec 11, 8:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

102171

OptionProbability

0 (0 bps)

1 (25 bps)

2 (50 bps)

3 (75 bps)

4 (100 bps)

5 - 6 (125 bps - 150 bps)

7 - 8 (175 bps - 200 bps)

9 - 10 (225 bps - 250 bps)

11 - 12 (275 bps - 300 bps)

82

7

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

What will the Fed rate be end of FY2026

Jul 22, 11:47 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

6972

OptionProbability

3 - 4.99%

5 - 6.99%

1 - 2.99%

Below 0%

0 - 0.99%

7 - 8.99%

9 - 10%

Above 10%

88

4

2

1

1

1

1

1

Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the July 29, 2026 FOMC meeting?

Jun 18, 12:02 AMJul 29, 6:25 PM

4.84%chance

8689

OptionVotes

YES

NO

461

29

Will the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates at least 3 times before December 31, 2026?

Mar 18, 4:25 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

3.32%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

540

19

Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the Sept. 16, 2026 FOMC meeting?

Jun 17, 10:04 PMSep 16, 6:25 PM

10.4%chance

4193

OptionVotes

YES

NO

293

42

Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the Oct. 28, 2026 FOMC meeting?

Jun 18, 12:01 PMOct 28, 6:25 PM

22.13%chance

479

OptionVotes

YES

NO

179

62

What will be the Federal Target Rate range after the final FOMC meeting of 2026?

Apr 10, 1:52 PMDec 16, 11:59 PM

140

OptionProbability

3.50% – 3.75%

3.00% – 3.25%

3.25% – 3.50%

3.75% – 4.00%

Below 2.75%

2.75% – 3.00%

Above 4.00%

30

13

13

13

11

11

11

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