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Prediction markets for Federal Reserve fund

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

59.06%chance

9213274

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1201

833

Will Fed (Kevin Warsh) cut interest rates by July 2026?

Jun 9, 9:55 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

1.54%chance

259791

OptionVotes

YES

NO

800

13

Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates in 2026?

Mar 5, 4:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58%chance

409386

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1175

851

Will Jerome Powells Sucessor cut federal interest rates to 1% or lower?

Jan 12, 1:55 AMMay 15, 11:59 PM

27.72%chance

161851

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1615

620

What will the Fed rate be end of FY2026

Jul 22, 11:47 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

6972

OptionProbability

3 - 4.99%

5 - 6.99%

1 - 2.99%

Below 0%

0 - 0.99%

7 - 8.99%

9 - 10%

Above 10%

88

4

2

1

1

1

1

1

Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the July 29, 2026 FOMC meeting?

Jun 18, 12:02 AMJul 29, 6:25 PM

1.92%chance

7679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

779

19

Will the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates at least 3 times before December 31, 2026?

Mar 18, 4:25 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

3.32%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

540

19

With the new peace talks with Iran, will interest rate rates lower in the next eight weeks?

Jun 19, 5:53 PMAug 14, 5:52 PM

4%chance

9422

OptionVotes

YES

NO

490

20

Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the Sept. 16, 2026 FOMC meeting?

Jun 17, 10:04 PMSep 16, 6:25 PM

10.4%chance

4193

OptionVotes

YES

NO

293

42

Will the United States regulate cryptocurrency due to its use in upcoming war before the end of 2027

Mar 22, 8:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22%chance

5138

OptionVotes

YES

NO

188

53

Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the Oct. 28, 2026 FOMC meeting?

Jun 18, 12:01 PMOct 28, 6:25 PM

22.13%chance

479

OptionVotes

YES

NO

179

62

What will be the Federal Target Rate range after the final FOMC meeting of 2026?

Apr 10, 1:52 PMDec 16, 11:59 PM

140

OptionProbability

3.50% – 3.75%

3.00% – 3.25%

3.25% – 3.50%

3.75% – 4.00%

Below 2.75%

2.75% – 3.00%

Above 4.00%

30

13

13

13

11

11

11

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