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People-sourced. AI-powered. Unbiased News.
OptionProbability
Trump will be the POTUS
FED rates will be below 5% on 1st January 2025
MrBeast Channel Subscribers will be between 300M to 350M on 1st Jan 2025
At Least 1 earthquake with magnitude 8.0 or higher
1 or more Jan 6 rioters get pardoned
Israel attacks Iranian nuclear facilities
Elon removed as doge head
Pope dies
Yoon Suk Yeol impeachment upheld by supreme court
Its revealed that Elon Musk had more children then 13 already known
Famous global brand goes through a rebranding
GPT 5 releases
Russia retains de facto control over Crimea
Avatar: Fire and Ash released
Hollow Knight Silk song released
King Charles will be alive for the whole year of 2025
This whole market gets more than 300 traders
2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US
LEMMiNO releases a new video
Any incumbent world leader diagnosed with cancer after 28th January 2025
Biden gets hospitalised
FED rates will be below 4% on 31st December 2025
Yoon Suk Yeol convicted of insurrection
In one of the monthly polls, >= 80.0% of Manifold users who provide an opinion agree that weak AGI has been achieved
MKBHD marries his girlfriend Nikki Hair
After the release of GPT-5, every monthly Manifold poll results in a plurality of respondents agreeing that weak AGI has been achieved
Early general elections in Pakistan
At least one world leader (prime minister, president, or monarch) gets assassinated while in office
Alan's Conservative Countdown to AGI >= 97%
Ali Khamenei assassisnated
Attempt to assassinate trump in 2025
Department of Education ended by executive order (even if temporarily)
T1 three-peat as League of Legends world champions
Mike Johnson is not Speaker
Bitcoin reaches 150k sometimes during 2025
Ali Khamenei dies a natural death
In one of the monthly polls, >= 33.3% of Manifold users who provide an opinion agree that non-human intelligence has influenced Earth
Russia-Ukraine war will end in 2025
There will be less MAU at manifold in December 2025 then there would be in January 2025
Marco Rubio fired or "resigns" upon rumors of his impending termination
Californian independence gains enough signatures
Attempted assassination on Zelensky in which he gets hurt but survives
Dodgers win World Series
Los Ratones win against T1, or lose 2-3 (either case should resolve YES, if they don't play against each other this should be NO)
Elections in Bangladesh come to pass (currently planned for late 2025 to early 2026)
Saudi Arabia - Israel normalize relations
At least one Premier of a Canadian province proposes joining the USA
A country leaves NATO
Phillies win the World Series
Harry and Meghan divorce
2025 hotter then 2024
Putin dies
Biden dies
Taylor Swift will be "single" anytime during 2025
In one of the monthly polls, a plurality of Manifold users declares the achievement of weak superintelligence
Congress repeals any tariff
Apple will release first foldable smartphone during 2025
Chuck Schumer resigns
United States government acknowledges the existence of life anywhere other than on or close to Earth
Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 80%
Elon Musk diagnosed with COVID-19
Bethesda releases a new game in the Elder Scroll series
China annexes Taiwan
Filibuster abolished
Zelensky Assassinated
Article 5 of NATO invoked
OpenAI o6 or any o6 variant released
Ukraine internal coup attempt
FrontierMath solved (>= 80%) and model is available to any person in the United States willing to pay for it
Kate and William divorce
Sam Altman gets fired again
At least one Premier of a Canadian province takes a concrete step, such as holding a referendum, to join the USA
Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 90%
Putin assassinated
NATO at war with Russia
Trump assassinated
Any newspaper reports a US Default on any debt
US-China war
A country leaves the EU
A nuclear bomb explodes
2025 is the 15th "Year of Three Popes"
US debt ceiling will be scrapped during 2025
United States government acknowledges the existence of non-human intelligence on or close to Earth
One of the Millenium prize problems falls to a model
The winds of winter by GRR Martin will release
USA claims intelligences of extra-terrestrial origin have credibly visited or sent technology to a location within our solar system in an official government statement
Los Ratones go to LoL Worlds
LK99 replicates at last
Greenland Joins USA
End of the world by celery
Ukraine joins NATO
Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 80% on or before June 30
A US state secedes from the union
51st US State
Peter Turkson elected Pope
GTA 6 releases
Federal Reserve cuts rates to zero
Harris will be the POTUS
Bitcoin will be > 100k on 1st January 2025
MrBeast Channel Subscribers will be below 300M on 1st Jan 2025
MrBeast Channel Subscribers will be above 350M on 1st Jan 2025
Jimmy Carter will be alive on 1st January 2025
Jimmy Carter will be alive on 31st December 2025
Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 80% on or before March 31
Francis is always Pope
New pope takes name "Francis"
First papal conclave >= 10 ballots
First conclave elects Pope on first ballot
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
97
96
94
91
89
87
85
81
79
69
61
59
55
50
46
45
42
42
35
33
32
31
22
21
21
21
20
19
19
18
17
17
17
15
14
14
14
14
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
11
11
10
10
10
10
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
3
3
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
2 cuts (Target 3.75-4.00)
1 cuts (Target 4.00-4.25)
3 cuts (Target 3.50-3.75)
0 cuts (Target 4.25-4.50 or higher)
4 cuts or more (Target 3.25-3.50 or lower)
45
32
16
5
1
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1790
559
OptionProbability
25 bps decrease
No change
50+ bps decrease
Increase
75
20
5
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
939
11
OptionVotes
NO
YES
276
36
OptionProbability
Eliezer Yudkowsky is alive during the entire month
at least 3 xkcd comics with no stick figures in it
Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%
Sam Altman still CEO through end of month
Volcano dormant for half a year erupts
nyc receives 3 or more inches of rain
trump posts on twitter/x ten or more times
starship launch
web3isgoinggreat has at least 20 posts this month
large tech company announces layoffs by my judgement
a tesla catches fire as reported by mainstream news
dick cheney still alive at end of month
Anthropic or Meta release a new model
bitcoin reaches 150k or more at least one day
silksong game releases
$500 in mana sold in a single day during the month
NASDAQ hits an all time high
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates
major tech company merger/acquisition announced
An original, Nintendo approved game with "Mario" in its title is announced
nVidia becomes the largest company in the history of the world (by market capitalization) at least once
spacex launches 15 or more rockets
spider man beyond the spider verse release date announced
another indictment revealing a right wing media personality is taking money from russia
destiny goes on joe rogan
a supreme court justice is replaced, or announces retirement
noam chomsky alive until end of month
trump leaves usa at least once
american airstrike or drone strike or missle strike on iran
ukraine russia ceasefire
luffy finds the one piece
earthquake 7.5 magnitude or higher
another indictment or charges announced against trump
israel hamas ceasefire
silksong game release date announced
usa troops enter lebanon
Tumbles is late to pay back a loan https://manifold.markets/Tumbles/will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba
twitter/x banned in another country (announced, even if it can be circumvented)
china taiwan military conflict resulting in at least 1 death
usa troops enter syria
usa bombs or missle strikes lebanon
usa bombs or missle strikes syria
earthquake 7.0+ magnitude
Hurricane landfalls in Florida
winds of winter (next GoT book) release date announced
100F temperature in nyc at least one day
98
92
90
90
83
72
72
69
69
69
69
69
50
50
50
50
50
33
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
27
26
21
20
20
20
20
14
14
14
14
14
8
8
8
8
7
6
5
3
OptionProbability
bitcoin reaches 80k
end of Blue Monday 2025 (jan 15)
Next President is sworn in ( even if it's Biden )
mr beast hits 250M subs on youtube
Alec Baldwin case ends
Trump running mate announced
2024 election is called by AP
Slay the Spire 2 releases on steam early access
The Federal Reserve decreases interest rates
gta 6 releases
Joe Biden passes away or is murdered
death stranding 2 releases
the ukraine russia war ends
Andrew Tate found guilty of a crime
Solar panels removed from the White House (again).
tortured poet's department releases
The official name of Elder Scrolls 6 is announced
the end of manifest 2024
the start of manifest 2024
Lantern bioworks Lumina treatment given FDA approval for something
julian Assange extradited to usa
he outlives inflation in the usa (trailing 12 month CPI increase less than 2% before he dies)
Silksong
Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel
spiderman beyond the spiderverse releases
Windows 12 released
Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1
destiny goes on joe rogan
human walks on the moon again
The last case of Guinea worm in humans
binance cease operating
trump found guilty of a crime
azerbaijian invades armenia
Ukraine joins NATO
first female president
100
100
100
96
92
90
90
90
86
86
77
69
69
69
54
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
41
31
31
31
31
20
20
17
10
5
5
OptionProbability
Eliezer Yudkowsky is alive during the entire month
Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%
at least 3 xkcd comics with no stick figures in it
dick cheney still alive at end of month
Sam Altman still CEO through end of month
web3isgoinggreat has at least 20 posts this month
large tech company announces layoffs by my judgement
a tesla catches fire as reported by mainstream news
bitcoin reaches 150k or more at least one day
nyc receives 3 or more inches of rain
starship launch
earthquake 7.0+ magnitude
nVidia becomes the largest company in the history of the world (by market capitalization) at least once
trump leaves usa at least once
Anthropic or Meta release a new model
$500 in mana sold in a single day during the month
spacex launches 15 or more rockets
trump posts on twitter/x ten or more times
Volcano dormant for half a year erupts
noam chomsky alive until end of month
NASDAQ hits an all time high
ukraine russia ceasefire
major tech company merger/acquisition announced
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates
An original, Nintendo approved game with "Mario" in its title is announced
earthquake 7.5 magnitude or higher
spider man beyond the spider verse release date announced
usa bombs or missle strikes lebanon
usa bombs or missle strikes syria
american airstrike or drone strike or missle strike on iran
another indictment revealing a right wing media personality is taking money from russia
destiny goes on joe rogan
a supreme court justice is replaced, or announces retirement
twitter/x banned in another country (announced, even if it can be circumvented)
israel hamas ceasefire
luffy finds the one piece
another indictment or charges announced against trump
Tumbles is late to pay back a loan https://manifold.markets/Tumbles/will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba
china taiwan military conflict resulting in at least 1 death
usa troops enter lebanon
usa troops enter syria
silksong game releases
Hurricane landfalls in Florida
silksong game release date announced
winds of winter (next GoT book) release date announced
100F temperature in nyc at least one day
98
90
90
80
80
69
69
69
69
63
59
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
42
42
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
20
20
20
20
14
14
14
10
10
8
5
3
OptionVotes
YES
NO
356
28
OptionProbability
Eliezer Yudkowsky is alive during the entire month
Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%
at least 3 xkcd comics with no stick figures in it
dick cheney still alive at end of month
web3isgoinggreat has at least 20 posts this month
large tech company announces layoffs by my judgement
a tesla catches fire as reported by mainstream news
Sam Altman still CEO through end of month
noam chomsky alive until end of month
nyc receives 3 or more inches of rain
NASDAQ hits an all time high
starship launch
trump leaves usa at least once
Anthropic or Meta release a new model
$500 in mana sold in a single day during the month
spacex launches 15 or more rockets
Hurricane landfalls in Florida
trump posts on twitter/x ten or more times
Volcano dormant for half a year erupts
ukraine russia ceasefire
israel hamas ceasefire
earthquake 7.0+ magnitude
major tech company merger/acquisition announced
100F temperature in nyc at least one day
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates
An original, Nintendo approved game with "Mario" in its title is announced
nVidia becomes the largest company in the history of the world (by market capitalization) at least once
bitcoin reaches 150k or more at least one day
earthquake 7.5 magnitude or higher
spider man beyond the spider verse release date announced
usa bombs or missle strikes syria
american airstrike or drone strike or missle strike on iran
another indictment revealing a right wing media personality is taking money from russia
a supreme court justice is replaced, or announces retirement
twitter/x banned in another country (announced, even if it can be circumvented)
luffy finds the one piece
usa bombs or missle strikes lebanon
another indictment or charges announced against trump
Tumbles is late to pay back a loan https://manifold.markets/Tumbles/will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba
destiny goes on joe rogan
china taiwan military conflict resulting in at least 1 death
usa troops enter lebanon
usa troops enter syria
silksong game releases
silksong game release date announced
winds of winter (next GoT book) release date announced
98
94
92
80
69
69
69
69
63
63
58
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
41
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
20
20
20
20
20
14
14
14
10
10
6
OptionVotes
NO
YES
247
40