Federation Account News

Will Anthropic models still be hosted on at least one of AWS, GCP, or Azure at expiry

Feb 28, 12:08 AMAug 31, 10:59 PM

97.94%chance

2915988

OptionVotes

YES

7381

168

Before December 31, 2026, will an ICE agent kill another American citizen?

Jan 8, 6:11 PMDec 31, 4:44 PM

24.64%chance

7912698

OptionVotes

YES

326

Will the US Federal Government spend more than 1/1000th of its budget on AI Safety by 2028?

Aug 12, 9:36 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12.42%chance

353823

OptionVotes

YES

1169

949

Will we learn that Anthropic lied to investors about operating profitable in Q2 2026 before 2028?

May 25, 8:51 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

11.02%chance

111566

OptionVotes

YES

1753

147

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

Mar 19, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.96%chance

131199

OptionVotes

YES

1689

592

Prop bets: What will prediction markets do to society (add your own)

Feb 17, 6:23 PMDec 31, 6:20 PM

11988

OptionProbability

Create new forms of gambling addiction and financial harm

Provide voting public with better information on candidates chances in elections

Lead to manipulation and misinformation through coordinated betting

Increase polarization by incentivizing extreme predictions

Provide public with better information about impact of policies and new legislation

Bring Jeffrey epstein back to life

Make me the President of USA

Will a U.S. Federal Government entity create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 31, 6:41 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.86%chance

15810

OptionVotes

YES

1652

885

What year do we see the emergence of a viable third political party in the US?

Feb 27, 11:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7464

OptionProbability

2032

2030

2028

Will a person running for US federal office in 2026 use the phrase 'kardashev scale' in an official capacity?

Feb 5, 12:50 AMNov 10, 11:59 PM

15.49%chance

10277

OptionVotes

YES

234

2026 Gambling Loss Tax Rules Prop Bets

Jul 14, 2:29 PMApr 15, 10:59 PM

4216

OptionProbability

Gambling losses deduction remains limited to 90% as laid out in OBBB

Congress explicitly intervenes to restore 100% deduction (example Rep Titus FAIR BET act enacted)

Mainstream pro gamblers move primarily to prediction markets for tax treatment

Administrative action classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Court ruling classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Legislation classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Major sports book goes bankrupt because of OBBB by 2027-01-01

Major sports book restructures as a prediction market before 2026-01-01

Will any country leave the 1967 protocol of the Geneva convention on refugees by dec 31st 2026?

Nov 26, 8:32 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33%chance

9195

OptionVotes

YES

260

205

Will there be a VAR/refereeing controversy that causes a team to officially protest a World Cup 2026 group-stage result

Jun 16, 2:27 PMJun 28, 11:59 PM

66.48%chance

8180

OptionVotes

YES

141

Federation Account News

Prediction markets for Federation Account

Prediction markets for Federation Account

Prediction markets for Federation Account

Will Anthropic models still be hosted on at least one of AWS, GCP, or Azure at expiry

Before December 31, 2026, will an ICE agent kill another American citizen?

Will the US Federal Government spend more than 1/1000th of its budget on AI Safety by 2028?

Will we learn that Anthropic lied to investors about operating profitable in Q2 2026 before 2028?

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

Prop bets: What will prediction markets do to society (add your own)

Will a U.S. Federal Government entity create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

What year do we see the emergence of a viable third political party in the US?

Will a person running for US federal office in 2026 use the phrase 'kardashev scale' in an official capacity?

2026 Gambling Loss Tax Rules Prop Bets

Will any country leave the 1967 protocol of the Geneva convention on refugees by dec 31st 2026?

Will there be a VAR/refereeing controversy that causes a team to officially protest a World Cup 2026 group-stage result

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