Federation Account News

Before December 31, 2026, will an ICE agent kill another American citizen?

Jan 8, 6:11 PMDec 31, 4:44 PM

51%chance

7912218

OptionVotes

YES

234

Will Anthropic models still be hosted on at least one of AWS, GCP, or Azure at expiry

Feb 28, 12:08 AMAug 31, 10:59 PM

97.16%chance

2711352

OptionVotes

YES

6226

197

Will the US Federal Government spend more than 1/1000th of its budget on AI Safety by 2028?

Aug 12, 9:36 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12.42%chance

353823

OptionVotes

YES

1169

949

Will a social network be blocked in Brazil in 2026?

Mar 14, 2:50 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

69%chance

121545

OptionVotes

YES

149

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

Mar 19, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.13%chance

121149

OptionVotes

YES

1639

610

Prop bets: What will prediction markets do to society (add your own)

Feb 17, 6:23 PMDec 31, 6:20 PM

11988

OptionProbability

Create new forms of gambling addiction and financial harm

Provide voting public with better information on candidates chances in elections

Lead to manipulation and misinformation through coordinated betting

Increase polarization by incentivizing extreme predictions

Provide public with better information about impact of policies and new legislation

Bring Jeffrey epstein back to life

Make me the President of USA

Will a U.S. Federal Government entity create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 31, 6:41 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.86%chance

15810

OptionVotes

YES

1652

885

Will another country pass an age restriction on social media by the end of 2026?

Jan 14, 4:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

91.3%chance

15476

OptionVotes

YES

324

What year do we see the emergence of a viable third political party in the US?

Feb 27, 11:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7464

OptionProbability

2032

2030

2028

Will a person running for US federal office in 2026 use the phrase 'kardashev scale' in an official capacity?

Feb 5, 12:50 AMNov 10, 11:59 PM

18.4%chance

8254

OptionVotes

YES

211

Will any country leave the 1967 protocol of the Geneva convention on refugees by dec 31st 2026?

Nov 26, 8:32 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

35.79%chance

9185

OptionVotes

YES

241

215

Will Microstrategy have to pay any federal income taxes on unrealised gains on its cryptocurrency holdings in 2026?

Jan 28, 10:37 PMJan 1, 2:59 PM

17.24%chance

4148

OptionVotes

YES

219

Federation Account News

Prediction markets for Federation Account

Prediction markets for Federation Account

Prediction markets for Federation Account

Before December 31, 2026, will an ICE agent kill another American citizen?

Will Anthropic models still be hosted on at least one of AWS, GCP, or Azure at expiry

Will the US Federal Government spend more than 1/1000th of its budget on AI Safety by 2028?

Will a social network be blocked in Brazil in 2026?

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

Prop bets: What will prediction markets do to society (add your own)

Will a U.S. Federal Government entity create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Will another country pass an age restriction on social media by the end of 2026?

What year do we see the emergence of a viable third political party in the US?

Will a person running for US federal office in 2026 use the phrase 'kardashev scale' in an official capacity?

Will any country leave the 1967 protocol of the Geneva convention on refugees by dec 31st 2026?

Will Microstrategy have to pay any federal income taxes on unrealised gains on its cryptocurrency holdings in 2026?

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