Federation Account News

Will Trump and Elon cut the Federal Budget by more than $1 Trillion/yr by the end of 2025?

Nov 10, 5:29 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

0.51%chance

16945052

OptionVotes

YES

13977

Will audio recordings of FDIC malfeasance vis crypto be confirmed?

Jan 12, 9:50 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

8.4%chance

5837870

OptionVotes

YES

32549

4033

Will the US Federal Government spend more than 1/1000th of its budget on AI Safety by 2028?

Aug 12, 9:36 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12.42%chance

353823

OptionVotes

YES

1169

949

Toronto allows sixplexes everywhere?

Jun 28, 4:44 AMDec 21, 2:30 AM

24.67%chance

61821

OptionVotes

YES

1747

572

Will the top 1% of U.S. wealth holders control over 50% of the nation's wealth by December 31, 2025?

Jul 2, 1:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.64%chance

191413

OptionVotes

YES

515

Will a U.S. Federal Government entity create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 31, 6:41 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.24%chance

13411

OptionVotes

YES

1253

936

2026 Gambling Loss Tax Rules Prop Bets

Jul 14, 2:29 PMApr 15, 10:59 PM

4216

OptionProbability

Gambling losses deduction remains limited to 90% as laid out in OBBB

Congress explicitly intervenes to restore 100% deduction (example Rep Titus FAIR BET act enacted)

Mainstream pro gamblers move primarily to prediction markets for tax treatment

Administrative action classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Court ruling classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Legislation classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Major sports book goes bankrupt because of OBBB by 2027-01-01

Major sports book restructures as a prediction market before 2026-01-01

Will Microstrategy have to pay any federal income taxes on unrealised gains on its cryptocurrency holdings in 2026?

Jan 28, 10:37 PMJan 1, 2:59 PM

15.38%chance

3145

OptionVotes

YES

235

Will any country leave the 1967 protocol of the Geneva convention on refugees by dec 31st 2026?

Nov 26, 8:32 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27.97%chance

5122

OptionVotes

YES

301

187

Intuitively, without overthinking, are claims by X user @Kabamur_taygeta resonating with you at a soul level?

Mar 16, 1:51 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

32.87%chance

4122

OptionVotes

YES

143

Federation Account News

Prediction markets for Federation Account

Prediction markets for Federation Account

Prediction markets for Federation Account

Will Trump and Elon cut the Federal Budget by more than $1 Trillion/yr by the end of 2025?

Will audio recordings of FDIC malfeasance vis crypto be confirmed?

Will the US Federal Government spend more than 1/1000th of its budget on AI Safety by 2028?

Toronto allows sixplexes everywhere?

Will the top 1% of U.S. wealth holders control over 50% of the nation's wealth by December 31, 2025?

Will a U.S. Federal Government entity create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

2026 Gambling Loss Tax Rules Prop Bets

Will Microstrategy have to pay any federal income taxes on unrealised gains on its cryptocurrency holdings in 2026?

Will any country leave the 1967 protocol of the Geneva convention on refugees by dec 31st 2026?

Intuitively, without overthinking, are claims by X user @Kabamur_taygeta resonating with you at a soul level?

Latest stories