Federation Account News

Will the US Federal Government spend more than 1/1000th of its budget on AI Safety by 2028?

Aug 12, 9:36 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12.47%chance

353828

OptionVotes

YES

1165

949

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

Mar 19, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.39%chance

131949

OptionVotes

YES

2439

410

Will we learn that Anthropic lied to investors about operating profitable in Q2 2026 before 2028?

May 25, 8:51 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

10.1%chance

131703

OptionVotes

YES

1764

Prop bets: What will prediction markets do to society (add your own)

Feb 17, 6:23 PMDec 31, 6:20 PM

11988

OptionProbability

Create new forms of gambling addiction and financial harm

Provide voting public with better information on candidates chances in elections

Lead to manipulation and misinformation through coordinated betting

Increase polarization by incentivizing extreme predictions

Provide public with better information about impact of policies and new legislation

Bring Jeffrey epstein back to life

Make me the President of USA

Will a U.S. Federal Government entity create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 31, 6:41 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.86%chance

15810

OptionVotes

YES

1652

885

Will Trump Accounts be expanded to include Americans under 40 years old by EOY 2027?

Oct 20, 7:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.64%chance

4525

OptionVotes

YES

1245

864

Will another country pass an age restriction on social media by the end of 2026?

Jan 14, 4:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.27%chance

18505

OptionVotes

YES

251

Will the Nicholas Funk vs PSA RICO lawsuit get dismissed?

Aug 5, 6:26 AMDec 31, 6:30 AM

78.41%chance

2410

OptionVotes

YES

1363

876

Before December 31, 2026, will an ICE agent kill another American citizen?

Aug 1, 4:23 PMDec 31, 11:27 PM

19.34%chance

11334

OptionVotes

YES

185

Will Lula finish his fourth term as President of Brasil?

Oct 26, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

83.68%chance

4222

OptionVotes

YES

1220

952

Will Microstrategy have to pay any federal income taxes on unrealised gains on its cryptocurrency holdings in 2026?

Jan 28, 10:37 PMJan 1, 2:59 PM

15.43%chance

5163

OptionVotes

YES

234

Will Elizabeth Warren seek reelection to the United States Senate?

Sep 2, 11:00 AMNov 5, 11:59 PM

50%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

100

Federation Account News

Prediction markets for Federation Account

Prediction markets for Federation Account

Prediction markets for Federation Account

Will the US Federal Government spend more than 1/1000th of its budget on AI Safety by 2028?

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

Will we learn that Anthropic lied to investors about operating profitable in Q2 2026 before 2028?

Prop bets: What will prediction markets do to society (add your own)

Will a U.S. Federal Government entity create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Will Trump Accounts be expanded to include Americans under 40 years old by EOY 2027?

Will another country pass an age restriction on social media by the end of 2026?

Will the Nicholas Funk vs PSA RICO lawsuit get dismissed?

Before December 31, 2026, will an ICE agent kill another American citizen?

Will Lula finish his fourth term as President of Brasil?

Will Microstrategy have to pay any federal income taxes on unrealised gains on its cryptocurrency holdings in 2026?

Will Elizabeth Warren seek reelection to the United States Senate?

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