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Prediction markets for Feds

Another Fed Rate Hike in 2026?

Sep 17, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

79%chance

3215378

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1012

952

How many net Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Nov 1, 8:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2915200

OptionProbability

Other

0 cuts (Target 3.50-3.75)

1 cut (Target 3.25-3.50)

2 cuts (Target 3.00-3.25)

3 cuts (Target 2.75-3.00)

4 cuts (Target 2.50-2.75)

96

2

1

0

0

0

Fed decision in December?

Sep 4, 5:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2014129

OptionProbability

Increase

No change

Decrease

75

24

1

Will Polymarket be right about every Fed decision in 2026?

Jan 7, 4:06 PMDec 9, 7:00 PM

91.99%chance

6111747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2325

810

Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?

Dec 14, 1:34 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

15.97%chance

5010404

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1767

784

Will the Fed be abolished during Trump's term?

Nov 14, 9:57 PMJan 21, 2:59 AM

3.83%chance

279104

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5008

200

Double digit US inflation within six months of Jerome Powell's leaving as Fed chair?

Apr 21, 12:20 AMNov 23, 1:18 AM

2.36%chance

185404

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4541

772

Will Nick Fuentes be revealed to be a Fed before 2040?

Feb 19, 4:04 AMJan 16, 6:59 AM

51.11%chance

244038

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1288

554

2026 rate hike parlay (Fed + ECB + BOJ + BOE + PBC)

May 25, 10:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.79%chance

233669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2735

366

Kevin Hassett becomes Fed chair in 2026?

Jan 6, 12:47 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1%chance

16487

OptionVotes

YES

NO

331

1

Are the “Patriot Front” marchers >20% feds?

May 16, 9:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22.79%chance

13449

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1080

964

Will Fed raise interest rates in 2027?

Aug 3, 12:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70%chance

7114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

153

65

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