Fiat News

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

May 9, 8:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.1%chance

2218272

OptionVotes

YES

1041

910

World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)

May 22, 2:13 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

64.11%chance

3414703

OptionVotes

YES

13307

8366

Will cryptocurrencies replace fiat money before 2040?

Apr 21, 7:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.93%chance

102438

OptionVotes

YES

1944

515

Will cryptocurrency replace a major Fiat currency as a primary means of transaction in any country by 2027?

Jan 11, 11:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.14%chance

262358

OptionVotes

YES

2360

717

Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 USD at any point before December 31, 2026?

Mar 18, 3:47 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

12%chance

201734

OptionVotes

YES

271

Will Bitcoin or another cryptocurrency replace the US Dollar by 2030?

Sep 1, 12:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.5%chance

111727

OptionVotes

YES

591

115

Will manifold reintroduce real money betting by 2026?

Apr 26, 8:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.44%chance

331552

OptionVotes

YES

465

Will the comprehensive rulebook of Magic: The Gathering contain no errors at any point before 2030?

Jan 30, 5:06 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

5.07%chance

7333

OptionVotes

YES

396

By 2041, will having $10M+ in personal financial wealth provide little or no material lifestyle advantage over 0 wealth?

Jul 28, 11:27 PMJan 1, 9:00 AM

15.31%chance

7331

OptionVotes

YES

235

Coinbase Outage/Freeze by 2030?

Nov 12, 12:01 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

20.02%chance

7182

OptionVotes

YES

234

115

🥈 Fun With Silver: The Monthly Shopping Cart.

Sep 13, 4:41 PMOct 1, 3:59 AM

482

OptionProbability

Will Silver’s final monthly benchmark close higher (09/30/2026) than the previous year (09/30/2025)?

Will Silver’s final monthly benchmark close higher (09/30/2026) than the previous month (08/31/2026)?

Will one troy ounce of Silver buy more gallons of regular gasoline 09/30/2026 than in August?

Will one troy ounce of Silver buy more pounds of ground beef 09/30/2026 than in August?

Will one troy ounce of Silver buy more pounds of white bread 09/30/2026 than in August?

Will one troy ounce of Silver buy more residential kilowatt hours of electricity 09/30/2026 than in August?

Will one troy ounce of Silver buy more bitcoin satoshis 09/30/2026 than in August?

Will one troy ounce of Silver buy more grams of gold 09/30/2026 than in August?

Will Silver gain buying power in September of at least 5 of the 8 comparison categories?

Will one troy ounce of Silver buy more dozens of Grade A large eggs 09/30/2026 than in August?

Will one troy ounce of Silver buy more gallons of whole milk 09/30/2026 than in August?

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Prediction markets for Fiat

Prediction markets for Fiat

Prediction markets for Fiat

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)

Will cryptocurrencies replace fiat money before 2040?

Will cryptocurrency replace a major Fiat currency as a primary means of transaction in any country by 2027?

Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 USD at any point before December 31, 2026?

Will Bitcoin or another cryptocurrency replace the US Dollar by 2030?

Will manifold reintroduce real money betting by 2026?

Will the comprehensive rulebook of Magic: The Gathering contain no errors at any point before 2030?

By 2041, will having $10M+ in personal financial wealth provide little or no material lifestyle advantage over 0 wealth?

Coinbase Outage/Freeze by 2030?

🥈 Fun With Silver: The Monthly Shopping Cart.

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