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Top stories

Ten-Year-Old Bodhana Sivanandan Beats Grandmaster, Sets Chess Age Record

Ten-Year-Old Bodhana Sivanandan Beats Grandmaster, Sets Chess Age Record

Authors

5

7 months ago

Prediction markets for FIDE

Will Magnus Carlsen become the FIDE World Chess Champion again by 2031?

Jun 6, 12:50 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9.43%chance

569014

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2760

582

Will FIDE stop granting women's chess titles by the end of 2026?

Jan 13, 5:28 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

2.5%chance

146000

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6247

160

Will FIDE prohibit any freestyle chess participants from participating in the 2026 World Championship cycle?

Jan 25, 3:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.24%chance

134865

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4752

210

Will there be a transgender FIDE chess grandmaster by the end of 2026?

Jun 13, 6:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.64%chance

254566

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2755

363

Will Magnus Carlsen be dethroned from his #1 spot in FIDE rating before GTA 6 is released?

Sep 22, 12:52 PMNov 1, 10:59 PM

5.5%chance

163884

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4145

241

Will Magnus Carlsen compete for the FIDE Classical World Chess Championship before 2033?

Oct 1, 1:45 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

11.36%chance

323866

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2406

588

Will these people ever be FIDE world chess champion? (end mid 2044)

Mar 30, 7:21 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

232778

OptionProbability

Someone under 40 at the time of gaining the title

Dommaraju Gukesh

Fabi

R Praggnanandhaa

Alireza Firouzja

Hikaru Nakamura

Ian Nepomniachtchi

Wesley So

Giri

A woman

Daniel Naroditsky

100

100

33

31

25

22

18

15

8

6

0

When will an active female chess player next rank in the top 100 players according to the FIDE standard top 100 ranking?

Mar 15, 4:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

81976

OptionProbability

In or before December, 2026

In or before June, 2026

In or before June, 2024

In or before December, 2024

In or before June, 2025

In or before December, 2025

39

17

0

0

0

0

Within 25 years there will be a female world chess champion (FIDE).

Jan 20, 7:39 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

10.81%chance

211728

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

948

Will FIDE lift restrictions on transgender players by the end of 2027?

Aug 24, 7:54 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

58.87%chance

22827

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1210

454

Chess Who will win the 2026 FIDE WOMEN'S Candidates Tournament?

Mar 18, 8:16 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM

11716

OptionProbability

Zhu Jiner

Aleksandra Goryachkina

Tan Zhongyi

Kateryna Lagno

Divya Deshmukh

Humpy Koneru

Bibisara Assaubayeva

Vaishali Rameshbabu

27

22

20

10

8

5

5

4

Will someone reach 2900 FIDE chess rating before Manifold reaches 2900 engaged users?

Jan 18, 1:35 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

8.18%chance

4150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

280

91

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