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Top stories

Ten-Year-Old Bodhana Sivanandan Beats Grandmaster, Sets Chess Age Record

Ten-Year-Old Bodhana Sivanandan Beats Grandmaster, Sets Chess Age Record

Authors

5

10 months ago

Prediction markets for FIDE

Who will be the next chess player to cross 2800 Elo points (FIDE classical, not live; to exceed 2800)

Dec 1, 1:49 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

3712737

OptionProbability

Fabiano Caruana

Javokhir Sindarov

Hikaru Nakamura

Nodirbek Abdusattorov

Vincent Keymer

Yağız Kaan Erdoğmuş

Arjun Erigaisi

Other

Alireza Firouzja

D Gukesh

Anish Giri

Ian Nepomniachtchi

Praggnanandhaa R

Magnus Carlsen

Ding Liren

Wesley So

Vidit Gujrathi

Hans Niemann

Richard Rapport

24

20

16

10

8

4

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

Will Magnus Carlsen become the FIDE World Chess Champion again by 2031?

Jun 6, 12:50 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9.48%chance

569025

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2748

583

Will FIDE stop granting women's chess titles by the end of 2026?

Jan 13, 5:28 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3.03%chance

146595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5653

177

Will FIDE prohibit any freestyle chess participants from participating in the 2026 World Championship cycle?

Jan 25, 3:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.24%chance

134865

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4752

210

Will there be a transgender FIDE chess grandmaster by the end of 2026?

Jun 13, 6:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.97%chance

264816

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3005

333

Will Magnus Carlsen be dethroned from his #1 spot in FIDE rating before GTA 6 is released?

Sep 22, 12:52 PMNov 1, 10:59 PM

7.4%chance

194446

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3538

283

Will Magnus Carlsen compete for the FIDE Classical World Chess Championship before 2033?

Oct 1, 1:45 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

11.36%chance

323866

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2406

588

Will these people ever be FIDE world chess champion? (end mid 2044)

Mar 30, 7:21 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

263069

OptionProbability

Someone under 40 at the time of gaining the title

Dommaraju Gukesh

Javokhir Sindarov

Yağız Kaan Erdoğmuş

R Praggnanandhaa

Alireza Firouzja

Fabi

Ian Nepomniachtchi

Hikaru Nakamura

Giri

Wesley So

A woman

Daniel Naroditsky

100

100

59

34

31

25

18

12

11

11

8

6

0

Within 25 years there will be a female world chess champion (FIDE).

Jan 20, 7:39 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

10.81%chance

211728

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

948

Will FIDE lift restrictions on transgender players by the end of 2027?

Aug 24, 7:54 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

58.87%chance

22827

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1210

454

Who will be the first human grandmaster to have FIDE Standard ELO > 2900

Sep 9, 3:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

17461

OptionProbability

Other

Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa

Dommaraju Gukesh

Magnus Carlsen

Alireza Firouzja

74

9

9

6

3

Will Magnus Carlsen be the highest FIDE rating chess player at the end of 2027?

Jan 11, 3:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61.69%chance

8180

OptionVotes

NO

YES

135

91

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