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Prediction markets for FIE

Bloomberg Odd Lots with Josh Wolfe: Will the field of Robotics have its "ChatGPT moment" by December 31, 2025?

Jan 7, 1:57 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

7.82%chance

1029138455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

344298

43497

Who will win the 2026 Fields Medals?

Sep 15, 4:58 PMJul 2, 3:59 AM

191117788

OptionProbability

Hong Wang

Sam Raskin

Jacob Tsimerman

John Pardon

Other

Song Sun

Yu Deng

Jack Thorne

A non-human (e.g. an LLM)

Maksym Radziwill

Karim Adiprasito

Julian Sahasrabudhe

Tatenda Kubalalika

Will Sawin

Elia Bruè

Aleksandr Logunov

Amol Aggarwal

Akhil Mathew

Ashwin Sah

Vesselin Dimitrov

Alexander Efimov

Maria Colombo

Simion Filip

Jeremy Hahn

Lisa Sauermann

Dennis Gaitsgory

(duplicate, will resolve no)

Xian-Jin Li

Yibo Gao

Mike Wolf

Joseph Palmer

Jacob Braunschweig

Miguel Walsh

22

21

20

17

10

3

2

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will DeepMind researchers win a Fields Medal before 2030?

Jan 16, 3:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.44%chance

3511655

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8352

653

Who will win the 2034 Fields Medals?

Mar 22, 1:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62481

OptionProbability

Other

@121

@TheAllMemeingEye

99

1

0

A school will integrate a full K-12 curriculum with Roblox, including language classes and virtual field

Sep 10, 3:03 PMSep 8, 3:01 PM

18.11%chance

11836

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1104

960

Will AI/ML be among the fastest growing fields through 2030?

May 8, 6:01 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

89.12%chance

16385

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1246

943

Will "Fields that I reference when thinking about A..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Aug 16, 5:38 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10.74%chance

2300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1297

958

Will Ralph Fiennes win the Academy Award Oscar for for Best Actor by the end of 2029?

May 3, 4:07 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.91%chance

4189

OptionVotes

YES

NO

286

35

Which fully autonomous system will be first to replace a tenth of the humans in its field?

Jan 7, 6:39 AMApr 21, 6:59 AM

6158

OptionProbability

Fully autonomous car

Fully autonomous soldier

Fully autonomous surgeon

Fully autonomous airliner

57

20

12

11

Will "The Field of AI Alignment: A Postmortem, and ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Dec 26, 8:57 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

28.15%chance

570

OptionVotes

NO

YES

113

47

When will Ottawa’s O-Train line 1 west expansion (to Lincoln Fields Station) open for public ridership?

Sep 4, 4:22 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

15

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029+

33

22

22

22

Will oil be drilled for in the field of the Antarctic Weddell Sea region before 2030?

Jul 13, 5:43 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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