Field News

Who will win the 2026 Fields Medals?

Sep 15, 4:58 PMJul 2, 3:59 AM

380393571

OptionProbability

Jacob Tsimerman

Hong Wang

John Pardon

Yu Deng

Jack Thorne

Other

Xian-Jin Li

Sam Raskin

Julian Sahasrabudhe

Will Sawin

Aleksandr Logunov

Vesselin Dimitrov

Alexander Efimov

Javier Fresan

Maksym Radziwill

Karim Adiprasito

Song Sun

Tatenda Kubalalika

Elia Bruè

Amol Aggarwal

Akhil Mathew

Ashwin Sah

Maria Colombo

Simion Filip

Jeremy Hahn

Lisa Sauermann

Dennis Gaitsgory

(duplicate, will resolve no)

Yibo Gao

Mike Wolf

Joseph Palmer

A non-human (e.g. an LLM)

Jacob Braunschweig

Miguel Walsh

Igor Rodnianski

Tasuki Kinjo

Junliang Shen

Hannah Larson

Justin Fields

Frederick Manners

Yuansi Chen

Tom Hutchcroft

yunqing tang

Noé Cruchet

Vincent Tassion

Tony Yu

David Budden

Ziyang Gao

Raphaël Beuzart-Plessis

Daniel Restrepo

Matteo Verni

Jiaoyang Huang

Will DeepMind researchers win a Fields Medal before 2030?

Jan 16, 3:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.43%chance

3711745

OptionVotes

YES

8402

653

A school will integrate a full K-12 curriculum with Roblox, including language classes and virtual field

Sep 10, 3:03 PMSep 8, 3:01 PM

18.11%chance

11836

OptionVotes

YES

1104

960

Will AI/ML be among the fastest growing fields through 2030?

May 8, 6:01 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

91.17%chance

18660

OptionVotes

YES

1521

913

Which language families will be widely academically recognized in the field of linguistics, by EOY 2035?

Apr 3, 9:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14653

OptionProbability

Austro-Tai (language family that includes both Austronesian and Kra-Dai languages)

Dene-Yeniseian (language family that includes both Na-Dene and Yeniseian languages)

Je-Tupi-Carib (language family that includes both Je, Tupi and Carib languages)

Italo-Celtic (an IE subfamily that includes both Latin and a Celtic language, but no languages from other major extant IE families)

Elamo-Dravidian (language family that includes both Elamite and Dravidian languages)

Paleo-Balkan (an IE subfamily that includes all of: Albanian, Ilyrian, Daco-Thracian, Hellenic, Phrygian. Can also include Armenian, but no languages from other major extant IE families)

Uralo-Siberian (language family that includes Uralic, Yukaghir and Eskaleut)

Altaic (or any other language family containing both Turkic, Tungusic and Mongolic languages)

Pontic (language family that includes both Indo-European and Northwest Caucasian languages)

Indo-Uralic (language family that includes both Indo-European and Uralic languages)

Proto-World (all known languages in the world are proven to belong to the same macrofamily)

Will Jared Duker Lichtman earn a Fields Medal before 2034?

Nov 16, 7:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.88%chance

5380

OptionVotes

YES

441

Will a Fields Medalist describe keeping up with new AI math as a "full-time job" before 2029?

May 23, 6:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.16%chance

8367

OptionVotes

YES

1273

786

Will biotechnology be among the fastest growing fields through 2030?

May 8, 6:01 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

80.93%chance

9121

OptionVotes

YES

311

142

What will be my primary field in 5 years?

Nov 18, 3:34 AMNov 25, 4:59 AM

475

OptionProbability

Quantitative psychology

Software engineering

Other

Statistics (other than quant psych)

Will oil be drilled for in the field of the Antarctic Weddell Sea region before 2030?

Jul 13, 5:43 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

50%chance

OptionVotes

YES

1000

Will "We need a field of Reward Function Design" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 10, 5:42 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

OptionVotes

YES

1000

What is the domain of validity of local quantum field theory?

Dec 31, 3:15 PMJan 1, 3:15 PM

OptionProbability

All relevant scales (energy, length, time)

Some restricted domain.

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Who will win the 2026 Fields Medals?

Will DeepMind researchers win a Fields Medal before 2030?

A school will integrate a full K-12 curriculum with Roblox, including language classes and virtual field

Will AI/ML be among the fastest growing fields through 2030?

Which language families will be widely academically recognized in the field of linguistics, by EOY 2035?

Will Jared Duker Lichtman earn a Fields Medal before 2034?

Will a Fields Medalist describe keeping up with new AI math as a "full-time job" before 2029?

Will biotechnology be among the fastest growing fields through 2030?

What will be my primary field in 5 years?

Will oil be drilled for in the field of the Antarctic Weddell Sea region before 2030?

Will "We need a field of Reward Function Design" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

What is the domain of validity of local quantum field theory?

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