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Prediction markets for Field

Bloomberg Odd Lots with Josh Wolfe: Will the field of Robotics have its "ChatGPT moment" by December 31, 2025?

Jan 7, 1:57 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

2.81%chance

1279603195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

656217

28211

Who will win the 2026 Fields Medals?

Sep 15, 4:58 PMJul 2, 3:59 AM

243179874

OptionProbability

Hong Wang

Jacob Tsimerman

Yu Deng

Jack Thorne

Sam Raskin

Julian Sahasrabudhe

Tom Hutchcroft

Other

Yibo Gao

Maksym Radziwill

Karim Adiprasito

John Pardon

Will Sawin

Aleksandr Logunov

Maria Colombo

Noé Cruchet

Song Sun

Tatenda Kubalalika

Elia Bruè

Amol Aggarwal

Akhil Mathew

Ashwin Sah

Vesselin Dimitrov

Alexander Efimov

Simion Filip

Jeremy Hahn

Lisa Sauermann

Dennis Gaitsgory

(duplicate, will resolve no)

Xian-Jin Li

Mike Wolf

Joseph Palmer

A non-human (e.g. an LLM)

Jacob Braunschweig

Miguel Walsh

Igor Rodnianski

Tasuki Kinjo

Junliang Shen

Hannah Larson

Justin Fields

Frederick Manners

Yuansi Chen

Javier Fresan

yunqing tang

Vincent Tassion

23

20

20

9

7

3

3

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will DeepMind researchers win a Fields Medal before 2030?

Jan 16, 3:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.44%chance

3611695

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8352

653

A school will integrate a full K-12 curriculum with Roblox, including language classes and virtual field

Sep 10, 3:03 PMSep 8, 3:01 PM

18.11%chance

11836

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1104

960

Will AI/ML be among the fastest growing fields through 2030?

May 8, 6:01 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

91.17%chance

18660

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1521

913

Will "Fields that I reference when thinking about A..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Aug 16, 5:38 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10.74%chance

2300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1297

958

Which fully autonomous system will be first to replace a tenth of the humans in its field?

Jan 7, 6:39 AMApr 21, 6:59 AM

6158

OptionProbability

Fully autonomous car

Fully autonomous soldier

Fully autonomous surgeon

Fully autonomous airliner

57

20

12

11

Is every finite group the Galois group of a field extension of the rationals?

Jan 24, 9:25 AMSep 18, 9:59 PM

76.35%chance

484

OptionVotes

NO

YES

180

56

What will be my primary field in 5 years?

Nov 18, 3:34 AMNov 25, 4:59 AM

373

OptionProbability

AI

Quantitative psychology

Software engineering

Other

Statistics (other than quant psych)

56

16

12

11

6

Combined field goals under 5.5 in Seahawks-Falcons game Dec 7?

Dec 1, 6:01 PMDec 7, 6:00 PM

66.22%chance

240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

140

71

Will Field of the Dead be unbanned in Modern by the end of 2025?

Oct 19, 4:37 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

7.62%chance

323

OptionVotes

NO

YES

72

18

Will oil be drilled for in the field of the Antarctic Weddell Sea region before 2030?

Jul 13, 5:43 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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