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Prediction markets for Field

Who will win the 2026 Fields Medals?

Sep 15, 4:58 PMJul 2, 3:59 AM

355350174

OptionProbability

Hong Wang

Other

Jacob Tsimerman

Jack Thorne

John Pardon

Aleksandr Logunov

Yu Deng

Sam Raskin

Vesselin Dimitrov

Matteo Verni

Julian Sahasrabudhe

Will Sawin

Maria Colombo

Yibo Gao

Tom Hutchcroft

Javier Fresan

Maksym Radziwill

Karim Adiprasito

Song Sun

Tatenda Kubalalika

Elia Bruè

Amol Aggarwal

Akhil Mathew

Ashwin Sah

Alexander Efimov

Simion Filip

Jeremy Hahn

Lisa Sauermann

Dennis Gaitsgory

(duplicate, will resolve no)

Xian-Jin Li

Mike Wolf

Joseph Palmer

A non-human (e.g. an LLM)

Jacob Braunschweig

Miguel Walsh

Igor Rodnianski

Tasuki Kinjo

Junliang Shen

Hannah Larson

Justin Fields

Frederick Manners

Yuansi Chen

yunqing tang

Noé Cruchet

Vincent Tassion

Tony Yu

David Budden

Ziyang Gao

Raphaël Beuzart-Plessis

Daniel Restrepo

22

21

14

13

9

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will DeepMind researchers win a Fields Medal before 2030?

Jan 16, 3:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.43%chance

3711745

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8402

653

Will the NFL use replacement (non-NFLRA) on-field officials in any Week 1 game of the 2026 regular season?

May 1, 2:57 PMSep 16, 3:59 AM

98.96%chance

3916

OptionVotes

NO

YES

976

10

A school will integrate a full K-12 curriculum with Roblox, including language classes and virtual field

Sep 10, 3:03 PMSep 8, 3:01 PM

18.11%chance

11836

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1104

960

Will AI/ML be among the fastest growing fields through 2030?

May 8, 6:01 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

91.17%chance

18660

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1521

913

Which field of math will Zongshu study in 2029?

Apr 21, 3:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2522

OptionProbability

Number Theory

Homotopy Theory

Set Theory

82

9

9

Physics Nobel 2026: Awarded Field(s) Multimarket

Jan 2, 3:18 PMSep 30, 2:16 PM

7393

OptionProbability

Quantum Mechanics (includes Quantum Computing)

Astrophysics or Cosmology

Condensed Matter Physics

Optics or Photonics

Atomic or Molecular Physics

Geophysics, Climate or Atmospheric Physics

Biophysics

Fluid dynamics

Semiconductor Physics

Superconductivity

Particle Physics

Thermodynamics

37

24

24

24

24

24

24

24

24

17

8

6

Will renewable energy be among the fastest growing fields through 2030?

May 8, 6:00 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

81.89%chance

595

OptionVotes

NO

YES

225

91

Will healthcare and telemedicine be among the fastest growing fields through 2030?

May 8, 6:02 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

51.43%chance

34

OptionVotes

NO

YES

72

68

Will oil be drilled for in the field of the Antarctic Weddell Sea region before 2030?

Jul 13, 5:43 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "We need a field of Reward Function Design" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 10, 5:42 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

What is the domain of validity of local quantum field theory?

Dec 31, 3:15 PMJan 1, 3:15 PM

00

OptionProbability

All relevant scales (energy, length, time)

Some restricted domain.

50

50

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