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Prediction markets for Field

Who will win the 2026 Fields Medals?

Sep 15, 4:58 PMJul 2, 3:59 AM

345343621

OptionProbability

Hong Wang

Jacob Tsimerman

Jack Thorne

John Pardon

Other

Will Sawin

Maria Colombo

Yu Deng

Julian Sahasrabudhe

Sam Raskin

Vesselin Dimitrov

Yibo Gao

Tasuki Kinjo

Junliang Shen

Javier Fresan

Maksym Radziwill

Karim Adiprasito

Song Sun

Tatenda Kubalalika

Elia Bruè

Aleksandr Logunov

Amol Aggarwal

Akhil Mathew

Ashwin Sah

Alexander Efimov

Simion Filip

Jeremy Hahn

Lisa Sauermann

Dennis Gaitsgory

(duplicate, will resolve no)

Xian-Jin Li

Mike Wolf

Joseph Palmer

A non-human (e.g. an LLM)

Jacob Braunschweig

Miguel Walsh

Igor Rodnianski

Hannah Larson

Justin Fields

Frederick Manners

Yuansi Chen

Tom Hutchcroft

yunqing tang

Noé Cruchet

Vincent Tassion

Tony Yu

David Budden

Ziyang Gao

Raphaël Beuzart-Plessis

Daniel Restrepo

Matteo Verni

23

21

16

9

8

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will DeepMind researchers win a Fields Medal before 2030?

Jan 16, 3:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.43%chance

3711745

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8402

653

A school will integrate a full K-12 curriculum with Roblox, including language classes and virtual field

Sep 10, 3:03 PMSep 8, 3:01 PM

18.11%chance

11836

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1104

960

Will AI/ML be among the fastest growing fields through 2030?

May 8, 6:01 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

91.17%chance

18660

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1521

913

Will Jared Duker Lichtman earn a Fields Medal before 2034?

Nov 16, 7:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.88%chance

5380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

441

23

By 2030, which field will AI have the most revolutionary impact on?

Mar 8, 11:24 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

23328

OptionProbability

Robotics

Biotech

Finance

Energy

73

51

37

22

What will be the highest magnitude of an earthquake near the Phlegraean Fields in italy (Campi Flegrei) in 2026?

Jan 11, 9:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2192

OptionProbability

Up to 4.5

5.6 to 6.0

4.6 to 5.0

5.1 to 5.5

More than 6.1

Other

24

24

19

19

12

2

Will biotechnology be among the fastest growing fields through 2030?

May 8, 6:01 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

80.93%chance

9121

OptionVotes

NO

YES

311

142

When will Ottawa’s O-Train line 1 west expansion (to Lincoln Fields Station) open for public ridership?

Sep 4, 4:22 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

225

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2029+

2026

26

26

26

21

Will oil be drilled for in the field of the Antarctic Weddell Sea region before 2030?

Jul 13, 5:43 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "We need a field of Reward Function Design" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 10, 5:42 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

What is the domain of validity of local quantum field theory?

Dec 31, 3:15 PMJan 1, 3:15 PM

00

OptionProbability

All relevant scales (energy, length, time)

Some restricted domain.

50

50

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