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Prediction markets for Field

Who will win the 2030 Fields Medals?

Sep 15, 5:01 PMJul 2, 3:59 AM

4312125

OptionProbability

Other

Will Sawin

Tom hutchcroft

Antoine Song

Alex Smith

Ewain Gwynne

Amol Aggarwal

Jeremy Hahn

Alexander Dunn

Marcelo Campos

Mehtaab Sawhney

Cristiana De Filippis

Ruixiang Zhang

Levent Alpöge

Hong Wang

Dor Minzer

Julian Sahasrabudhe

Ashwin Sah

Lisa Sauermann

David Budden

27

21

12

11

9

6

4

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will DeepMind researchers win a Fields Medal before 2030?

Jan 16, 3:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.43%chance

3711745

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8402

653

Will oil be drilled for in the field of the Antarctic Weddell Sea region before 2030?

Jul 13, 5:43 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

18.94%chance

12150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2069

483

Which field of math will Zongshu study in 2029?

Apr 21, 3:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5849

OptionProbability

Number Theory

Homotopy Theory

Set Theory

96

2

2

A school will integrate a full K-12 curriculum with Roblox, including language classes and virtual field

Sep 10, 3:03 PMSep 8, 3:01 PM

18.11%chance

11836

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1104

960

Will AI/ML be among the fastest growing fields through 2030?

May 8, 6:01 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

91.17%chance

18660

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1521

913

Will a Fields Medalist describe keeping up with new AI math as a "full-time job" before 2029?

May 23, 6:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.36%chance

9387

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1241

806

Will Z win the 2026 Fields Medal?

Jun 15, 10:53 AMJul 29, 11:59 PM

1%chance

12233

OptionVotes

YES

NO

286

1

Will space exploration and commercialization be among the fastest growing fields through 2030?

May 8, 6:03 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

71.61%chance

574

OptionVotes

NO

YES

177

98

Will electric and autonomous transportation be among the fastest growing fields through 2030?

May 8, 6:02 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

68.07%chance

432

OptionVotes

NO

YES

142

89

Will "We need a field of Reward Function Design" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 10, 5:42 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

What is the domain of validity of local quantum field theory?

Dec 31, 3:15 PMJan 1, 3:15 PM

00

OptionProbability

All relevant scales (energy, length, time)

Some restricted domain.

50

50

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