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Prediction markets for Field AI

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.25%chance

88143181

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106395

18257

Will we get ASI before 2030?

Dec 20, 12:57 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

11.22%chance

8489360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1939

785

In which year will a majority of AI researchers concur that a superintelligent, fairly general AI has been realized?

Jul 2, 11:10 AMFeb 16, 1:48 PM

14334752

OptionProbability

Some year after 2040.

AGI will end humanity before such a consensus will be reached

2029

2030

2028

2031

Such a consensus will never be reached because such an AI is not possible to create

2025

2026

2027

2032

2033

2024

2034

2037

2023

2035

2036

2038

2039

2040

34

11

6

6

5

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?

Mar 16, 5:59 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

80.63%chance

28427333

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3632

2013

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

66.24%chance

10422599

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11634

10188

Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?

Jun 2, 10:31 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

45.93%chance

14717706

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10226

9709

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Feb 20, 10:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

29.72%chance

1418719

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3323

1983

Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?

May 25, 12:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.95%chance

91300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3864

3220

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11946

OptionProbability

(0, 200]

None

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

34

25

9

6

5

5

5

5

4

4

Will AI/ML be among the fastest growing fields through 2030?

May 8, 6:01 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

91.17%chance

18660

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1521

913

By 2030, which field will AI have the most revolutionary impact on?

Mar 8, 11:24 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

23328

OptionProbability

Robotics

Biotech

Finance

Energy

73

51

37

22

Will "The Field of AI Alignment: A Postmortem, and ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Dec 26, 8:57 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

31%chance

672

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

42

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