Field AI News

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

84.4%chance

185309762

OptionVotes

YES

112537

28904

Should we hire you? [Job-finding market]

Aug 3, 4:44 PMDec 30, 4:14 PM

6597394

OptionProbability

Dummy answer required due to Manifold's multiple-choice market design, will resolve N/A

@retr0id

@vi

@Quroe

@Bandors

@zhengkyl

@Eternal

@Cy

@8my41

@astroblob

@AlirezaAfshan

@AtharvPatil

Pat Scott @Stralor

@Celene

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.36%chance

12437063

OptionVotes

YES

14097

6644

In which year will a majority of AI researchers concur that a superintelligent, fairly general AI has been realized?

Jul 2, 11:10 AMFeb 16, 1:48 PM

14735098

OptionProbability

Some year after 2040.

AGI will end humanity before such a consensus will be reached

2030

2031

2029

2028

2032

Such a consensus will never be reached because such an AI is not possible to create

2025

2026

2027

2033

2024

2034

2037

2023

2035

2036

2038

2039

2040

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Feb 20, 10:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

25.52%chance

1479885

OptionVotes

YES

6410

4263

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:21 AMDec 29, 11:20 AM

18.49%chance

256659

OptionVotes

YES

2103

477

Will AI contribute novel theorywork to agent foundations before 2028?

Jul 24, 2:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.65%chance

135870

OptionVotes

YES

5679

2185

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

131706

OptionProbability

(0, 200]

None

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?

May 25, 12:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.95%chance

91300

OptionVotes

YES

3864

3220

Will AI/ML be among the fastest growing fields through 2030?

May 8, 6:01 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

91.17%chance

18660

OptionVotes

YES

1521

913

Will a Fields Medalist describe keeping up with new AI math as a "full-time job" before 2029?

May 23, 6:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.36%chance

9387

OptionVotes

YES

1241

806

By 2030, which field will AI have the most revolutionary impact on?

Mar 8, 11:24 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

23328

OptionProbability

Robotics

Biotech

Finance

Energy

Field AI News

Prediction markets for Field AI

Prediction markets for Field AI

Prediction markets for Field AI

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Should we hire you? [Job-finding market]

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

In which year will a majority of AI researchers concur that a superintelligent, fairly general AI has been realized?

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

Will AI contribute novel theorywork to agent foundations before 2028?

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?

Will AI/ML be among the fastest growing fields through 2030?

Will a Fields Medalist describe keeping up with new AI math as a "full-time job" before 2029?

By 2030, which field will AI have the most revolutionary impact on?

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