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Prediction markets for Field AI

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.06%chance

109171214

OptionVotes

YES

NO

81796

26531

Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?

Mar 16, 5:59 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

94.35%chance

32448387

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9567

1323

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.47%chance

12337043

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14077

6665

In which year will a majority of AI researchers concur that a superintelligent, fairly general AI has been realized?

Jul 2, 11:10 AMFeb 16, 1:48 PM

14735087

OptionProbability

Some year after 2040.

AGI will end humanity before such a consensus will be reached

2030

2031

2029

2028

2032

Such a consensus will never be reached because such an AI is not possible to create

2025

2026

2027

2033

2024

2034

2037

2023

2035

2036

2038

2039

2040

31

10

8

8

6

5

4

4

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?

Jul 24, 7:30 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

46.96%chance

11227617

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1661

1184

Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?

Jun 2, 10:31 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44.57%chance

15118150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10008

9979

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Feb 20, 10:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

27.17%chance

1459535

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6060

4388

Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?

May 25, 12:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.95%chance

91300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3864

3220

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

131206

OptionProbability

(0, 200]

None

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

37

24

9

5

4

4

4

4

4

4

Will AI/ML be among the fastest growing fields through 2030?

May 8, 6:01 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

91.17%chance

18660

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1521

913

Will a Fields Medalist describe keeping up with new AI math as a "full-time job" before 2029?

May 23, 6:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.16%chance

8367

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1273

786

By 2030, which field will AI have the most revolutionary impact on?

Mar 8, 11:24 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

23328

OptionProbability

Robotics

Biotech

Finance

Energy

73

51

37

22

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