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Prediction markets for Fields

Who will win the 2026 Fields Medals?

Sep 15, 4:58 PMJul 2, 3:59 AM

313320855

OptionProbability

Hong Wang

Jack Thorne

Jacob Tsimerman

John Pardon

Yu Deng

Javier Fresan

Sam Raskin

Yibo Gao

Other

Julian Sahasrabudhe

Song Sun

Will Sawin

Aleksandr Logunov

Vesselin Dimitrov

Alexander Efimov

Frederick Manners

David Budden

Maksym Radziwill

Karim Adiprasito

Tatenda Kubalalika

Elia Bruè

Amol Aggarwal

Akhil Mathew

Ashwin Sah

Maria Colombo

Simion Filip

Jeremy Hahn

Lisa Sauermann

Dennis Gaitsgory

(duplicate, will resolve no)

Xian-Jin Li

Mike Wolf

Joseph Palmer

A non-human (e.g. an LLM)

Jacob Braunschweig

Miguel Walsh

Igor Rodnianski

Tasuki Kinjo

Junliang Shen

Hannah Larson

Justin Fields

Yuansi Chen

Tom Hutchcroft

yunqing tang

Noé Cruchet

Vincent Tassion

Tony Yu

Ziyang Gao

Raphaël Beuzart-Plessis

22

20

12

9

6

6

5

4

3

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will DeepMind researchers win a Fields Medal before 2030?

Jan 16, 3:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.43%chance

3711745

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8402

653

Who will win the 2034 Fields Medals?

Mar 22, 1:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72755

OptionProbability

Other

Marcelo Campos

@121

@TheAllMemeingEye

97

2

1

0

A school will integrate a full K-12 curriculum with Roblox, including language classes and virtual field

Sep 10, 3:03 PMSep 8, 3:01 PM

18.11%chance

11836

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1104

960

Will AI/ML be among the fastest growing fields through 2030?

May 8, 6:01 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

91.17%chance

18660

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1521

913

What will be the highest magnitude of an earthquake near the Phlegraean Fields in italy (Campi Flegrei) in 2026?

Jan 11, 9:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2192

OptionProbability

Up to 4.5

5.6 to 6.0

4.6 to 5.0

5.1 to 5.5

More than 6.1

Other

24

24

19

19

12

2

Which fully autonomous system will be first to replace a tenth of the humans in its field?

Jan 7, 6:39 AMApr 21, 6:59 AM

6158

OptionProbability

Fully autonomous car

Fully autonomous soldier

Fully autonomous surgeon

Fully autonomous airliner

57

20

12

11

Will biotechnology be among the fastest growing fields through 2030?

May 8, 6:01 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

80.93%chance

9121

OptionVotes

NO

YES

311

142

Will renewable energy be among the fastest growing fields through 2030?

May 8, 6:00 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

81.89%chance

595

OptionVotes

NO

YES

225

91

Will "We need a field of Reward Function Design" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 10, 5:42 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will oil be drilled for in the field of the Antarctic Weddell Sea region before 2030?

Jul 13, 5:43 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

What is the domain of validity of local quantum field theory?

Dec 31, 3:15 PMJan 1, 3:15 PM

00

OptionProbability

All relevant scales (energy, length, time)

Some restricted domain.

50

50

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