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Prediction markets for Fields

Bloomberg Odd Lots with Josh Wolfe: Will the field of Robotics have its "ChatGPT moment" by December 31, 2025?

Jan 7, 1:57 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

7.82%chance

1029138455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

344298

43497

Who will win the 2026 Fields Medals?

Sep 15, 4:58 PMJul 2, 3:59 AM

198138362

OptionProbability

Hong Wang

Jacob Tsimerman

John Pardon

Sam Raskin

Jack Thorne

Aleksandr Logunov

Maksym Radziwill

Yu Deng

Other

Karim Adiprasito

Will Sawin

Julian Sahasrabudhe

Song Sun

Miguel Walsh

Hannah Larson

Tatenda Kubalalika

Elia Bruè

Amol Aggarwal

Akhil Mathew

Ashwin Sah

Vesselin Dimitrov

Alexander Efimov

Maria Colombo

Simion Filip

Jeremy Hahn

Lisa Sauermann

Dennis Gaitsgory

(duplicate, will resolve no)

Xian-Jin Li

Yibo Gao

Mike Wolf

Joseph Palmer

A non-human (e.g. an LLM)

Jacob Braunschweig

Igor Rodnianski

Tasuki Kinjo

Junliang Shen

25

24

7

7

6

6

5

4

4

2

2

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will DeepMind researchers win a Fields Medal before 2030?

Jan 16, 3:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.44%chance

3511655

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8352

653

Who will win the 2030 Fields Medals?

Sep 15, 5:01 PMJul 2, 3:59 AM

143206

OptionProbability

Other

Will Sawin

Ewain Gwynne

Amol Aggarwal

Alex Smith

Jeremy Hahn

Hong Wang

Dor Minzer

Marcelo Campos

Julian Sahasrabudhe

Ashwin Sah

Lisa Sauermann

Mehtaab Sawhney

28

24

13

11

10

10

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

What will be the highest magnitude of an earthquake near the Phlegraean Fields in italy (Campi Flegrei) in 2025?

May 20, 8:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52028

OptionProbability

4.6 to 5.0

Up to 4.5

5.1 to 5.5

5.6 to 6.0

More than 6.1

Other

66

13

5

5

5

5

A school will integrate a full K-12 curriculum with Roblox, including language classes and virtual field

Sep 10, 3:03 PMSep 8, 3:01 PM

18.11%chance

11836

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1104

960

Will AI/ML be among the fastest growing fields through 2030?

May 8, 6:01 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

89.12%chance

16385

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1246

943

Will "Fields that I reference when thinking about A..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Aug 16, 5:38 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10.74%chance

2300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1297

958

Will Italy qualify on the field for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Jun 7, 12:45 PMApr 15, 10:59 PM

85.26%chance

11252

OptionVotes

NO

YES

241

42

Will renewable energy be among the fastest growing fields through 2030?

May 8, 6:00 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

81.89%chance

595

OptionVotes

NO

YES

225

91

Will healthcare and telemedicine be among the fastest growing fields through 2030?

May 8, 6:02 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

51.43%chance

34

OptionVotes

NO

YES

72

68

Will oil be drilled for in the field of the Antarctic Weddell Sea region before 2030?

Jul 13, 5:43 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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