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Prediction markets for Fields

Who will win the 2026 Fields Medals?

Sep 15, 4:58 PMJul 2, 3:59 AM

382394355

OptionProbability

Hong Wang

Jacob Tsimerman

Jack Thorne

Yu Deng

John Pardon

Other

Xian-Jin Li

Julian Sahasrabudhe

Sam Raskin

Will Sawin

Aleksandr Logunov

Vesselin Dimitrov

Alexander Efimov

Javier Fresan

Maksym Radziwill

Karim Adiprasito

Song Sun

Tatenda Kubalalika

Elia Bruè

Amol Aggarwal

Akhil Mathew

Ashwin Sah

Maria Colombo

Simion Filip

Jeremy Hahn

Lisa Sauermann

Dennis Gaitsgory

(duplicate, will resolve no)

Yibo Gao

Mike Wolf

Joseph Palmer

A non-human (e.g. an LLM)

Jacob Braunschweig

Miguel Walsh

Igor Rodnianski

Tasuki Kinjo

Junliang Shen

Hannah Larson

Justin Fields

Frederick Manners

Yuansi Chen

Tom Hutchcroft

yunqing tang

Noé Cruchet

Vincent Tassion

Tony Yu

David Budden

Ziyang Gao

Raphaël Beuzart-Plessis

Daniel Restrepo

Matteo Verni

Jiaoyang Huang

21

18

16

13

11

5

3

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will DeepMind researchers win a Fields Medal before 2030?

Jan 16, 3:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.43%chance

3711745

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8402

653

A school will integrate a full K-12 curriculum with Roblox, including language classes and virtual field

Sep 10, 3:03 PMSep 8, 3:01 PM

18.11%chance

11836

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1104

960

Will AI/ML be among the fastest growing fields through 2030?

May 8, 6:01 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

91.17%chance

18660

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1521

913

Physics Nobel 2026: Awarded Field(s) Multimarket

Jan 2, 3:18 PMSep 30, 2:16 PM

8559

OptionProbability

Quantum Mechanics (includes Quantum Computing)

Astrophysics or Cosmology

Condensed Matter Physics

Optics or Photonics

Atomic or Molecular Physics

Geophysics, Climate or Atmospheric Physics

Biophysics

Fluid dynamics

Semiconductor Physics

Superconductivity

Thermodynamics

Particle Physics

37

24

24

24

24

24

24

24

24

17

6

4

Will Jared Duker Lichtman earn a Fields Medal before 2034?

Nov 16, 7:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.88%chance

5380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

441

23

Will a Fields Medalist describe keeping up with new AI math as a "full-time job" before 2029?

May 23, 6:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.16%chance

8367

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1273

786

Will space exploration and commercialization be among the fastest growing fields through 2030?

May 8, 6:03 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

71.61%chance

574

OptionVotes

NO

YES

177

98

Will healthcare and telemedicine be among the fastest growing fields through 2030?

May 8, 6:02 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

51.43%chance

34

OptionVotes

NO

YES

72

68

Will "We need a field of Reward Function Design" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 10, 5:42 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will oil be drilled for in the field of the Antarctic Weddell Sea region before 2030?

Jul 13, 5:43 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

What is the domain of validity of local quantum field theory?

Dec 31, 3:15 PMJan 1, 3:15 PM

00

OptionProbability

All relevant scales (energy, length, time)

Some restricted domain.

50

50

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