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Prediction markets for Fifty Years

Will "It's been ten years. I propose HPMOR Annivers..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Feb 17, 4:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

1.59%chance

3807

OptionVotes

YES

NO

729

72

Will "Christian homeschoolers in the year 3000" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 18, 5:09 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.5%chance

3256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1214

969

Will the US split into two countries within the next fifty years?

Oct 11, 2:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

17.55%chance

7133

OptionVotes

YES

NO

228

136

Will "Scientific breakthroughs of the year" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 17, 4:45 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.78%chance

4122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1095

985

Will "Will Jesus Christ return in an election year?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 18, 2:41 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

17.65%chance

4112

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1039

789

Will number 852655 have been found to be in Recamán’s sequence (A005132) before the year 2030 ?

Jan 11, 11:53 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

30.59%chance

6106

OptionVotes

YES

NO

184

125

Will "How AI Takeover Might Happen in 2 Years" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Feb 7, 9:34 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

43.03%chance

784

OptionVotes

NO

YES

124

27

Will "I make several million dollars per year and h..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 5, 11:07 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.13%chance

260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

991

Will "Five Hinge‑Questions That Decide Whether AGI ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 19, 6:25 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.98%chance

222

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1022

875

Will "One Year in DC" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 21, 11:16 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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